US southwest could see 60-year drought: study

AFP ^ | December 13, 2010 | Unknown

[decimon]

WASHINGTON (AFP) – A worst-case scenario devised by US researchers shows that the American southwest could experience a 60-year stretch of heat and drought unseen since the 12th century.

Researchers at the University of Arizona examined studies of temperature changes and droughts in the region over the past 1,200 years and used them to project future climate models in the hope that water resource managers could use the information to plan ahead.

An examination of the past, through human-kept records but also via rings in the cores of trees that can show periods of wetness or drought, showed that dry spells of earlier centuries were much worse than any we have seen in modern times.

"Major 20th century droughts pale in comparison to droughts documented in paleoclimatic records over the past two millennia," the researchers wrote, noting that high temperatures coincided with lengthy dry spells in medieval times.

[decimon]

Kiss your Arizona goodbye?

If it's happened before, relatively recently, then it could happen again.

[decimon]

Sere in memory ping.

[GeronL]

Can they predict the weather for 2 weeks though?

[Joe 6-pack]

The Mexican government will never stand for this. Expect demands for the US to properly irrigate the region for its new Aztlan overlords.

[SomeCallMeTim]

Um.... is it just me, or... does a 15% reduction in river flow, in the midst of a 1200 year drought... not seem like THAT big a deal???

[rdl6989]

That’s what happened to the Anasazi.

[muawiyah]

Ten days, tops!

On the other hand these drought records are quite important, and unlike the Global Warming materials they are verifiable ~ independently.

Just dig down in the dirt and all will be revealed.

I don't think your typical Mexican or Guatemalan wants the US South West without water. We may need to fortify our border at the Colorado River on the West and the Sacramento River on the South.

They'll be trying to break outta' there.

[Felis_irritable]

Wait wait wait...

Are they saying the weather comes & goes? I’m wondering, what kind of SUVs did people drive medieval times?

[txhurl]

It’s... happening. Texas has only been ~green this year due to tropical storms, otherwise 1/3 of the state would be in that dark blood-red color on the drought map.

Some gardeners and myself have been discussing our plantlife, and are puzzled at the lack of ‘ummphh’ everything is showing. At 6am on the news was peanut farmers who dug up their peanuts, and while the shells where goodlooking, there were no nuts inside.

[whitedog57]

I believe it. I lived there for several years and drove to Vegas several times. The water was a big issue and Lake Meade always looked lower and lower.

Give it to the Mexicans!

[txhurl]

That’s what happened to the Anasazi.

---

When you lose thunderstorms (as we have) you lose nitrogen.

We’ve lost our thunderstorms.

[txhurl]

I don’t think your typical Mexican or Guatemalan wants the US South West without water. We may need to fortify our border at the Colorado River on the West and the Sacramento River on the South.

They’ll be trying to break outta’ there.

---

lol

[hinckley buzzard]

This is not a crazy leftwing ruse. I spent a decade in Tucson from the sixties to the Seventies indulging my interest in ecology while in grad school. In the nineteenth century, little more than a century ago, what is now part of the Sonoran Desert around Tucson was then grasslands with year-around flowing streams. The Santa Cruz River, now a dry wash and flash flood storm runoff, was a real river back then, scarcely a century ago.

Since then Arizona has become dependent on ground water, which has been showing signs of failure for years, and more recently Colorado River water, at great expense.

The Colorado depends on runoff from the mountains. If the snowpack begins to fail consistently, so does AZ, and Southern California. Despite the impression from the term 'drought,' it is snow, not rain, that drives the desert civilization.

[AmericanVictory]

Those medieval droughts were no doubt caused by automobiles and washing machines.

[ModelBreaker]

“Those medieval droughts were no doubt caused by automobiles and washing machines.”

Yes. That is true. The scientific concensus is overwhelming.

[muawiyah]

Without tropical storms New England would become a semi-arid wasteland.

Well, it'd become "semi-arid" anyway.

[Helen]

Globull Warming has proven to be not that accepted by the peons. Maybe “high temperatures and lengthy dry spells” will work better.

[Pilsner]

The Santa Cruz River, now a dry wash and flash flood storm runoff, was a real river back then, scarcely a century ago.

In the Sahara, there are neolithic cave paintings, showing early men hunting large herbivores in lush grasslands. When my mother grew up in England, she had a science teacher who displayed a fine collection of fossilized imprints of palm fronds -- in chunks of coal. Palm trees haven't native to Scotland, or Northern England, for millennia.

Things change.

[The Comedian]

Stockpile-moisturizing-cream ping.

Frowning takes 68 muscles.
Smiling takes 6.
Pulling this trigger takes 2.
I'm lazy.

[Deek]

During 25 years of that period, the Colorado River -- an important tributary that today feeds seven US states including the big cities of Los Angeles, Las Vegas, Denver, Phoenix, Tucson and Albuquerque -- flowed at a rate of 15 percent below normal.

I hope they are better at weather than they are at geography. Both Albuquerque and Denver are on the "other side" of the Great Divide from the Colorado River, and neither receives water from the Colorado's watershed.