Semi-News: Asteroid Likely to Hit Earth Seen as Offset to Global Warming

AZCONSERVATIVE ^ | 16 Dec 2005 | John Semmens

[John Semmens]

Any action that might possibly be taken to divert a 390m-wide asteroid from colliding with Earth is likely to be opposed by environmentalists. The reasons range from reluctance to tampering with Mother Nature to the belief that anything that might destroy civilization would be good for the environment.

The asteroid in question is Apophis, which has an outside chance of hitting the Earth in 2036. The impact would release more than 100,000 times the energy released in the nuclear blast over Hiroshima. The Earth would see massive cooling effects from the dust released into the atmosphere.

There has been some suggestion that efforts ought to be made to try to ensure that a collision does not take place. NASA has speculated that a mission to nudge the asteroid away from a collision course would be feasible. Robert Kennedy, attorney for the Natural Resources Defense Council, is opposed to such a mission.

“Inasmuch as the Earth is already suffering from human-caused global warming, the cooling effects of an asteroid impact may be just the medicine we need,” said Kennedy.

Kennedy shrugged off the prospect that hundreds of millions, maybe billions, of people would perish from such a catastrophe. “Death is what nature intends for us all,” Kennedy said. “It is hubris to try to avert this fate. Nature must be allowed to take its course.”

“Let’s suppose that we were able to prevent such a collision,” Kennedy continued. “What then? Man would continue to ravage the planet unimpeded. It would be better for the planet if civilization were destroyed and humans were forced to live a more natural existence. Sure, life would be nasty, brutish and short. But that’s what nature intended before men mucked everything up with runaway technology.”

[HOTTIEBOY]

There is no asteroid in line with earth. It is not there. It does not exist. I don't disagree that Apophis is an actual asteroid, but it is not on a collision course with earth nor is any other comet or asteroid.
This assumption arrived at by reading countless documents and research work by NASA and other comet tracking organizations of which is so extensive it would wreck the bandwidth of this site if posted.
It's not going to happen.
Well let me say: It's not going to happen anytime in the next 100,000 or so years.

Jupiter, being so massive, pull all threatening impacts away from inner planetary orbit millions of years ago.

[MarineBrat]

Jupiter, being so massive, pull all threatening impacts away from inner planetary orbit millions of years ago.

My sarcasm detector must be busted this morning... or it needs a shot of coffee.

[SunkenCiv]

Action urged to deal with asteroid likely to hit Earth (Please read and respond to my comment)
Todayonline | 12-08-05 | Guardian
Posted on 12/09/2005 9:07:47 AM PST by emiller
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1537189/posts

It's called Apophis. It's 390m wide. And it could hit Earth in 31 years time [Asteroid]
The Guardian (UK) | December 7, 2005 | by Alok Jha
Posted on 12/06/2005 6:59:40 PM PST by aculeus
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1535383/posts

Astronauts push for strategies, spacecraft to prevent cosmic collision
Flagstaff Arizona Sun | 11/06/2005 | Marcia Dunn
Posted on 11/06/2005 5:53:40 PM PST by Graybeard58
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/1517000/posts

Scientist: Asteroid May Hit Earth in 2029
Yahoo/AP | 12/23/04 | JOHN ANTCZAK
Posted on 12/23/2004 8:24:16 PM PST by hole_n_one
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1307719/posts

[HOTTIEBOY]

Jupiter, being so massive, pull all threatening impacts away from inner planetary orbit millions of years ago.
My sarcasm detector must be busted this morning... or it needs a shot of coffee.


This does not apply to the topic of the thread but it does apply to the statement above. Though it is very exaggerated, it shows the main asteroid belt that is held in line by the gravitational pull of massive Jupiter.
Planetary astronomers believe that the planets of the Solar System formed from a nebula of gas and dust that coalesced into a disk of dust grains around the developing Sun. Within the disk, tiny dust grains coagulated into larger and larger bodies called planetesimals, many of which eventually accreted into planets over a period as long as a 100 million years. However, beyond the orbit of Mars, gravitational interference from Jupiter's huge mass prevented protoplanetary bodies from growing larger than about 620 miles.
Over time the dust settled and a belt was formed that is held in place by Jupiter.

[HOTTIEBOY]

The calculation of impact probability involves the disciplines of orbital dynamics, estimation theory, and numerical analysis. The orbit of a comet or asteroid is determined from a set of observations (right ascension/declination coordinates). The observations are typically accurate to 0.5 arc-sec, although this can vary somewhat according to the pixel size used in the CCD detectors: some observatories have only 1.0 arc-sec accuracy. Because there are some errors in the observations, there will be uncertainties in the orbital determination for the object. The uncertainty in the orbital elements also depends on the number of observations and the time span over which they are made. The more observations we have, and the longer the time span, the less the uncertainties will be, and the more precise the orbit will become. Thus, for a newly discovered object, the uncertainties tend to be large initially. As more observations are obtained on the object's position, the uncertainties are reduced, and any potential impacts are then eventually eliminated for the vast majority of the cases. The impact probability for Apophis is as follows:

Impact Probability: 1.8e-04

0.018000000% chance of Earth impact

or

1 in 5,560 chance

or

99.98200000% chance the asteroid will miss the Earth

[MarineBrat]

You do realize that your statements in post #2 are absurd, don't you? Take an honest look at them...

There is no asteroid in line with earth. It is not there. It does not exist. I don't disagree that Apophis is an actual asteroid, but it is not on a collision course with earth nor is any other comet or asteroid.

Here we have a guy on the internet who guarantees that an asteroid, which crosses the Earth's orbit, will not strike the Earth.  While comforting, I'd better check into what you base your guarantee on.

This assumption arrived at by reading countless documents and research work by NASA and other comet tracking organizations of which is so extensive it would wreck the bandwidth of this site if posted.

Lucky for those pesky conspiracy theorists we don't have to post any actual evidence.  Or it would be the end of FreeRepublic.

It's not going to happen.  Well let me say: It's not going to happen anytime in the next 100,000 or so years.

Ahhh... actual numbers.  Sort of.  I guess that Barringer Crater, which is about 50,000 years old is volcanic in nature?

Jupiter, being so massive, pull all threatening impacts away from inner planetary orbit millions of years ago.

Sort of like saying that because water is wet, dry can't be dry?

From: http://neat.jpl.nasa.gov

*Amors, Apollos, and Atens are the three categories of Near-Earth asteroids (NEAs). Amor asteroids approach the Earth's orbit from the outside, Apollo asteroids cross the Earth's orbit, and Aten asteroids approach the Earth's orbit from the inside. Potentially Hazardous asteroids (PHAs) are larger than ~0.2 km (0.1 mile) and approach close enough to present a potential hazard but not a current hazard.

*Follow-up observations are often required! See the Near-Earth Object Confirmation Page (NEOCP) of the Minor Planet Center for ephemerides.

[HOTTIEBOY]

OK I was wrong. There is a chance it will hit earth. See post 6.

I know what I am talking about. I just simplified the response in the name of time. The full explaination might not wreck the bandwidth, but it would take a degree in astro physics to understand and it would be too boring for people to actually take the time to read it.

So there, the astroid does have a chance. .0018% chance to be exact.

Astroids fall everyday. An astroid equivelant to the one that caused the Barringer Crater is rare. One that size will hit every million years or so. A million years in the life of earth is about an hour to you and me.

[SunkenCiv]

Apophis will be close, but (probably) no cigar, give or take interactions it has with other floating space dung.

1 in 5,560 chance, one close approach
April 13, 2036, 0.55 Earth radii
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/a99942.html

Here's some of the (known) similar objects:

2000 SG344
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2000sg344.html

2004 VD17
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2004vd17.html

1994 WR12
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/1994wr12.html

Regarding recent impact on the Moon:

Moon's Youngest Crater Discovered
BBC | 12-20-2002
Posted on 12/19/2002 7:42:01 PM PST by blam
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/809572/posts

NASA Solves Moon Mystery (+Geology Picture of the Week, February 16-22, 2003)
February 20, 2003 | Jet Propulsion Laboratory
Posted on 02/21/2003 1:47:27 PM PST by cogitator
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/848926/posts

New crater revives Moon mystery
11 January 2003
New Scientist
Jeff Hecht
http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=dn3242

"A mysterious flash on the Moon caught on camera 50 years ago is still provoking disagreements about its origin. Astronomer Bonnie Buratti says her new results show that the flash was caused by a 20-metre asteroid hitting the Moon... In a future issue of the journal Icarus, Buratti reports a fresh impact scar at the site of the 1953 flash on images collected by the Clementine spacecraft as it orbited the Moon in 1994. A bright blanket of ejected material covers an area that is about 1.5 kilometres across, and the colour of the debris indicates that the crater is relatively new."

[HOTTIEBOY]

I was about to post one of those articles.

It simply will not hit.

[BCR #226]

Um... you do realize that Jupiter takes up less than 1/1000 of a degree in the sky in it's orbit right? That leaves 99.99+% left open for these real threats to get through. Not only that but a collision between asteroids in the belt can send one hurtling in towards the sun at any time... heck, it happens quite often... here's the catch, our foot print in the orbital plane is smaller than Jupiters.

If you think it won't happen, you are sorely mistaken. I admit, the chances of it happening in our lifetime is small but not out of the question.

Mike

[SunkenCiv]

And the possible impactor of 2880:

1950 DA
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/1950da/
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/doc/sentry_faq.html#1950da

[HOTTIEBOY]

before anyone posts.....

a million years in the life of earth is about twenty minutes to you and me.

There, I was wrong again.

[SunkenCiv]

"I was about to post one of those articles."

Really? Which one? Make it really easy to understand, because I don't have "a degree in astro physics" [sic] and am easily bored, even by articles about possible impact by an "astroid" [sic].

But seriously, terrestrial impacts don't happen all the time, even though debris is always hitting the Earth's atmosphere. The most spectacular display I've ever seen myself was visible in the daylight (this was in the summer of 2002), and the object appeared to be tumbling. I don't think it hit anywhere, but the occasional pebble hitting the odd roof or windshield isn't likely to draw much attention.

OTOH, large impacts are not as rare as all that, as John Lewis notes in "Rain of Iron and Ice", and very large ones aren't on any timetable. As David Morrison has noted, it is likely that there will be zero warning of then next extinction level event. He noted that in the middle of the 1990s, and there are those who have claimed (more recently) that the survey work to identify threats will soon be complete.

Looks like we're just getting started, and the sunside observation isn't nearly what it should be.

[HOTTIEBOY]

Um... you do realize that Jupiter takes up less than 1/1000 of a degree in the sky in it's orbit right? That leaves 99.99+% left open for these real threats to get through

It's not that simple, given that Jupiter's magnetosphere is elliptical and extends more than 650km out. That is well past the orbit of Saturn

Not only that but a collision between asteroids in the belt can send one hurtling in towards the sun at any time...

You are thinking about comets.

[SunkenCiv]

	Mining the Sky: Untold Riches from the Asteroids, Comets, and Planets by John S. Lewis ed by Jeffrey Robbins Hardcover
	Rain of Iron and Ice: The Very Real Threat of Comet and Asteroid Bombardment by John S. Lewis Hardcover
	Comet and Asteroid Impact Hazards on a Populated Earth: Computer Modeling by John S. Lewis

[SunkenCiv]

You may enjoy this (although it's more or less a duplicate topic).

[SunkenCiv]

let's not forget, that Toutatis was a hoax... ;') ;') ;')

Huge asteroid to fly past Earth (Toutatis hoax - how and why)
space.com | 04/09/29
Posted on 09/29/2004 5:00:09 AM PDT by Truth666
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/1230167/posts

"This is the text that media use to sell this hoax... Astronomers know nothing about the universe, except for a few large bodies with regular orbits. Any idiot should have understood that the latest by April 14, 2004, as comet Bradfield (diameter : 10,000 km) popped out of nowhere to become the largest body ever recorded in the inner solar system."

[BCR #226]

650km? do you mean 650,000 miles? that is not in Saturn's orbit... if that were true, the combined gravitational and magnetic forces would cause the planets to collide. The effects of Jupiters gravity spreads quite far but it is not as strong at distance as you might believe.

http://www.solstation.com/stars/asteroid.htm

read the last few sections at the bottom concerning NEA's and the asteroid belt. I think it'll explain the danger quite well.

Mike

[RightWhale]

There is a second band of asteroids that pass within earth's orbit.