Posted on 04/15/2018 11:04:45 AM PDT by Voption
In linking to my sunspot update this week, there has been a lot of speculation at the climate website WattsUpWithThat that the next solar cycle has begun...which suggested that this sunspot was the first such sunspot this cycle, was not quite accurate however. This sunspot with an opposite polarity, which decayed so quickly that it did not rate getting a sunspot number, was not the first... The grand minimum of the 1600s, dubbed the Maunder Minimum in honor of the scientist who first identified it, was a century where almost no sunspots were visible. There was no apparent solar cycle. Solar scientists today however believe that sunspots during that grand minimum continued to form, but were generally too weak to be noticeable for the astronomers at the time...
“Can anyone boil this down to what we can expect as a result”
There will be a period of cooling, resulting in democrats manufacturing a crisis, requiring massive funding, controls on fossil fuels, computer models showing dire predictions, etc
Lack of sun spots ... more spots more heating, but you have to wait a generation or more for that to happen ...
I’m in Barry County.
Got about an inch of snow/hail today.
“This sunspot with an opposite polarity”
While this phrase is representing a change in the sun’s polarity field or opposite the sun’s prior polarity field, I was wondering if the change is into or out of alignment with the earth’s polarity field?
“Lack of sunspots” is in indication of conditions leading to cooling.”
Lack of sunspots is an indication of a strong dipolar field that decreases sunspots. The stronger the dipolar field the colder it becomes. The same is true for earth.
The polarity reversal only happens in a weak dipolar field. It warms up during this period.
The are talking over 3 feet up in Marquette.
I lived around Munising for 12 years after living in Sheboygan county Wisconsin for a few years, then moved to near Marquette for another 12. That was enough for us.
What do ya plan on doing tomorrow? Plow snow. And after that? Plow snow.
1997 I plowed snow with a D6 cat for abt 20 days in a row trying to open up a 3 and a half mile road to one of my jobs. Every time I got a hole punched back to the job, it hit with another 2 to 3 foot storm. Couldnt get the banks back far enough in time to use a pickup with a boss plow.
Per Spaceweather.com
SOLAR WIND, INCOMING: A wide hole is opening in the sun’s atmosphere, and it is spewing a stream of solar wind toward Earth. G1-class geomagnetic storms are possible when the gaseous material arrives on April 19-20. Sky watchers between 50o and 60o N latitude should also be alert for STEVE, which tends to appear in that latitude range during springtime geomagnetic storms.
Per Spaceweather.com
With little warning, a relatively large asteroid flew through the Earth-Moon system on April 15th only 192,200 km (0.5 LD) from our planet. 2018 GE3 was discovered by the Catalina Sky Survey approaching Earth on April 14th. Hours later, amateur astronomer Michael Jäger of Weißenkirchen Austria video-recorded the space rock rushing through the southern constellation Serpens.
“According to wikipedia, 2018 GE3 is the largest known asteroid to pass that close to Earth in observational history,” says Jäger. “It was shining like a 13th magnitude star at the time of my observations.”
Based on the intensity of its reflected sunlight, 2018 GE3 must be 48 to 110 meters wide, according to NASA-JPL. This puts it into the same class as the 60-meter Tunguska impactor that leveled a forest in Siberia in 1908. A more recent point of comparison is the Chelyabinsk meteor—a ~20-meter asteroid that exploded in the atmosphere over Russia on Feb. 15, 2013, shattering windows and toppling onlookers as a fireball brighter than the sun blossomed in the blue morning Ural sky. 2018 GE3 could be 5 to 6 times wider than that object.
If 2018 GE3 had hit Earth, it would have caused regional, not global, damage, and might have disintegrated in the atmosphere before reaching the ground. Nevertheless, it is a significant asteroid, illustrating how even large space rocks can still take us by surprise. 2018 GE3 was found less than a day before before its closest approach.
Take a look at the polar ice.
Just remember, the less sun spots to colder. The bigger the ice field the more reflection back. I guess the ice field is HUGE for this time of year.
One piece, i dint remember where now, said the permanent ice field is going to end up a hundred miles or more south of where it normally is this year. They dont know yet.
How would that score on Boone and Crockett?
The 20th century sunspot excursion was easily the most energetic solar activity in the last thousand years. They now say 8000 years to match the combination of spots, flares, coronal ejections.
Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research:
https://www.mpg.de/research/sun-activity-high
I predict weather will continue.
Fewer sunspots have been theorized to lead to less energy striking earth and thus cooling over time. Right now, however, the oceans are warm and an el Niño is forming so we will probably see higher water vapor > more clouds > rain and snow and stormy weather.
The liberal media will only report on how American capitalism is killing Gaia.
Re: “Can anyone boil this down to what we can expect as a result?”
With just three “opposite” polarity sunspots, it’s too soon to predict if the next Solar Cycle has started.
The Cycle we are currently in has had a very low number of sunspots, and, if this cycle ends now, I think it will be the shortest solar cycle ever recorded.
The author and a number of other solar experts have noted a close similarity between today’s sun and the sun that existed at the beginning of the Maunder Minimum (1645-1715), which was a 70 year period of almost no sunspots, and very low Earth temperatures.
Other solar experts point out that technology and solar knowledge was so limited in 1645 that trying to compare that period with 2018 is impossible.
During the Maunder Minimum in 1645, Earth temperatures went down dramatically, causing events like the Thames River to completely freeze over in the winter.
Prediction?
I’m hoping for a Maunder Minimum just so the Global Warming fanatics shut up for a couple minutes, which, of course, they will never do. They will just claim that the Maunder Minimum is “concealing” man made warming.
On the other hand, a new freezing cold Maunder Minimum would almost certainly cause significant human suffering, so it is not something that men of high character should wish for.
Early Republicans?
More proof of GoreBull warming!
I know. The Left says (without saying) that totalitarian government is needed to fix “the weather”.
I say, send all those Leftist Lovers of Totalitarianism in a spaceship to the sun to “fix the weather.” Bon voyage!
Here is my prediction.
Since I believe we will not come out of this century before Christ returns and is crowned King of the Earth in Jerusalem, and since in the 3.5 years before that, the sun will become so hot it will “scorch men” (Rev. 16:8), maybe there will be a sudden, unexpected flurry of sun spots relatively soon.
You haven't heard? They are acknowledging the cooling and are saying it will "slow the growth of global warming". I kid you not.
Re: The sun will become so hot it will “scorch men.”
Jim, you should have told me about this when I turned 62.
I decided to postpone my Social Security until age 70, and I still have two years to go!
Well, good for you. Hopefully SS, an actual Ponzi scheme, will be around long enough for us older guys and at the same time phase it out for the younger generation so they can keep more of their money and leave retirement up to individuals or the states.
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