Posted on 10/31/2020 8:50:51 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
So you read about every state commented on.
PA looks very difficult. Very.
D turnout in NC was huge.
NV isn’t likely to swing our way.
I think Trump will win.
I think people thinking of a blowout are the ones who do not follow or read what’s going on and just blab that out.
We are predicting who is going to vote and in what numbers on election day before it happens.
There are no guarantees.
I am optimistic that Trump will win.
I do not believe it will be that many EVs.
That’s fine with me.
In the House each state only gets 1 vote. So the delegation from California meets and they decide who to vote for. The lone rep from Idaho gets 1 vote as well. In this scenario there are more GOP dominate states.
I’m game.
...At the same time, more Democrats are voting early than Republicans. Which means lots of Democrats are voting for Trump...
You know this how?
And you know what? I don’t care what the rallies look like or how many boats show up or how many signs are in yards or any of that stuff.
Cause at the end of the day ONLY VOTES MATTER.
I will be praying through Tuesday.
My prediction.
Trump wins but not with over 300 EVs.
And like I said before, that’s fine with me
Swaths of Pennsylvania Republicans never received their mail-in ballots and will have to cast provisional ballots on election day. It is probably the largest case of voter suppression in history outside the Jim Crow South.
Why is IA and AZ blue? Trump is ahead in both states.
How do they know the party affiliation of voters?
Isn't it supposed to be secret ballot?
Are ballots tagged in some way?
The people fleeing NY and NJ for NC are just extending their visit, they are not residents and are voting absentee in their home States. They are like relatives that stay past their welcome. Most will leave when NY opens up after the election.
I agree, this analysis is weak. It doesn’t distinguish between states that track registration and states they are modelled.
They are NOT all looking good. PA looks like a total disaster right now.
And the author assumes in some cases that more republican result votes is good, then assumes the opposite in other states, that higher dem performance means they’ve “used up”all their votes.
Then he takes a state like NC, where he’s amazed how far ahead democrats are, but he assumes Republicans are coming out in huge numbers and will win anyway.
He says we ain’t winning Minnesota.
And the conclusion is Trump can win IF he wins a couple of states this analysis doesn’t show him winning at the moment.
Yes there was good news holding some important States, but then we’re not holding others that we need.
yep pray and vote
Florida is still good bellwether, the winner of the last 13 presidential elections won Fl (exception being year Ross Perot won and got 20% of vote ) and when Fl moves right so does rust belt.
Based on VBM, early voting and registration trends it looks like Trump holds core of Fl, Az, IA and NC (AZ and NC may be tight) and picks up WI and MI for the win
It looks good for Trump! We still need to pray, pray some more, vote, and pray some more.
AZ, NC, WI and MI.
Yeah at least I’ll lose some weight the next three days.
I think VERY few R votes are going for biden.
There may be a decent sized number of Ds going for Trump.
Not huge, but enough to maybe make the difference in some tight ones.
Prayer is right.
And vote.
And take 4 people over 85 to the polls.
I didn’t trust mailing in the vote.
God help me. :)
Yes but he’s describing a disaster in NC so far.
Here in Long Island, NY, you vote via a huge sheet with several rows -— Democrat, Republican, Conservative, Green, Workers Party
Each row has its own candidate and all you do is BLACKEN the oval of the person you want to vote for.
The paper is then read via an electronic reader, and automatically tallied.
They should be able to know how many votes Trump/Pence had vs. Biden/Harris immediately.
Indeed. For example, the vast majority of blacks are registered Democrats. If Trump has really made major inroads into the black electorate which I think he has, then party affiliation based projection could differ quite a bit from actual results. Same with union workers across the Midwest most of whom are registered Democrats.
It looks okay for Trump, that is the best I can say. The pollster from the Trafalgar group said he sees a Trump win with between 275 and 280 EV. That seems reasonable.
One thing about this analysis. I can only speak for NC. During the General Election you are not asked party preference as there is only one ballot. To tally early voting numbers they are going off a person’s registration. I am a registered Independent. I left the GOP years ago. A lot of conservatives in my area are registered as Independent so unless they are using my past voting pattern, unlikely, my early vote for Trump is not reflected in the numbers for NC. Not all Trump voters are registered as Republicans.
Trump will take North Carolina. The state is heading blue, but it's not there yet.
The computer holds those numbers, but they actual process of counting does not begin until 3 Nov. Theoretically, nobody knows what those early votes look like until Election Day. That was how it was explained to me anyway.
We will win both States.
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