RuZZian Tank losses RunningTotal: 1012
September 2022 - 18
August 2022 – 74
July 2022 – 108
June 2022 – 67
May 2022 – 148
April 2022 – 243
Feb 24 - March 2022 – 350
RuZZian Artillery losses Running Total: 245
September 2022 - 3
August 2022 – 21
July 2022 – 21
June 2022 – 18
May 2022 – 20
April 2022 – 52
Feb 24 - March 2022 – 110
Rob Lee
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1567395435685216256
“According to the Russian Starshe Eddy channel, not only is Balakliya encircled but Ukrainian forces appear to have taken Volokhiv Yar over night. They think Ukraine will try to push towards Kupyansk.”
“Another Russian Telegram channel says that Ukraine increased the intensity of missiles strikes, particularly HIMARS, over the past week on Izyum, Kupyansk, and other areas. They say Ukraine has been preparing for the offensive for at least a month. 2/”
“Another Russian channel says “don’t expect good news today” before saying Russian units there are below 50% manning levels while the staff are bloated. Two Rosgvardia detachments have been fighting for more than a day encircled near Volokhiv Yar. 3/”
“Vladlen Tatarsky says he trusts the info from the Starshe Eddy and Zapiski Veteran channels who are both involved in the fighting in the Kharkiv-Izyum direction. He says the two encircled Rosgvardia units are SOBR from Samara and Bashkiria. 4/”
“Another Ru account says they are only fighting at partial strength and that the Russian state must be fully mobilized. They question why capabilities are being shown at Vostok 2022 when Russian soldiers lack artillery and aviation. “We have a long and difficult fight ahead of us””
“Interestingly, a number of Russian Telegram channels have been talking about a Ukrainian buildup in Kharkiv over the past month, but it appears Ukraine may still have achieved surprise today.”
“Tatarsky tells Rosgvardia troops to learn how to call for fire before deploying and how to use AGS grenade launchers, ATGM, and SPG-9. A reminder that they aren’t trained for conventional war.”
“Another Russian Channel questions why battalion and company commanders didn’t see the offensive coming and prepare and that they shouldn’t have made a public warning if higher ignored them. They suggest senior officers are incompetent and ignored Intel.”
“Girkin says Balakliya was defended by LDPR mobilised and Rosgvardia who didn’t know how to use available heavy weapons; Ukrainians entered swiftly on armour rendering Rus. artillery ineffective; beat the f*ck out of the garrison.”
“Already a strong theme from the Russian Telegram accounts that this is a Russian military leadership failure that is putting soldiers on the front lines at greater risk than they should be.”
“They’re saying the Ukrainian objective is Kupyansk to cut off Izyum. They also say that, as Ukraine advances, missile strikes on Izyum continue and sabotage/partisan activity has increased in Russian-occupied Kharkiv Oblast.”
“Starshe Eddy is criticizing people saying Ukraine lacks reserves in the Balakliya-Izyum area. He’s angry with generals and senior officers but praises juniors soldiers and officers doing the fighting. 15/”
“The account is saying Russia is deploying reserves to Shevchenkove to stop the advance. They say Ukrainian forces may have bypassed Volokhiv Yar and Semenivka in order to keep advancing to Shevchenkove (which is how you rapidly exploit success).”
How is the Great Kherson Counter-Offensive going?
Ukraine: military situation update with maps, Sept 6, 2022
(’Orc’ is associated with the various hoards of 13th century Mongol invaders, as well as LOTR evil villains)
War in Ukraine
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCP2QApi8G2TKc8NZmeDWSUg/videos
Artillery (key to success in this war), Fuller explanation of Orc military structure, Other Bonus articles - see previous postings in “Attack on Europe” (FR title search).
(Numbered printed material below - Some of the items below may be out of date, and not updated yet)
••denotes transcribed dialogue.
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Extra:
Ukraine Situation Report: Kharkiv Counter-Offensive May Have Begun
There are major indications that Ukraine has opened-up a second offensive in the northeast as its operation in the south gains ground.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-kharkiv-counter-offensive-may-have-begun
Excerpts:
And, thanks to a shortage of bearings, Russia is having trouble shipping supplies by rail, noted former Swedish Army officer ...
“Russian railways are grinding to a halt - why? Because they can’t replace worn out bearings on their train carriers. Why can’t they do that? Because Swedish SKF closed their factory in Tver (RU) … and the output produced was for the RU railways.” ...
the supply issue is so critical that Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin “signed a decree on the creation in the Russian Federation of two armored repair plants of the Ministry of Defense,” the pro-Ukrainian Ukraine Now Telegram reported Tuesday. “The deadline for putting the facilities into operation is emergency, just four months.”...
And if a lack of supplies weren’t bad enough, Russian soldiers are being targeted over a lack of affection, according to Anton Barbashin, the editorial director of Riddle Russia, an online journal of Russian affairs ...
Ukrainian hackers, using “fake accounts of attractive women,” asked Russian soldiers to send their pictures. Ukrainian troops then used those pictures to geolocate the Russian troop locations and strike them with artillery fire, Barbashin noted.
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Summary:
Major Ukrainian offensive on Kherson bridgehead
Day 9 of the offensive.
Ukrainian advances on the Kherson bridgehead completely stalled
Ukrainian command launched offensive with immediate objective of Balakliya, Volokhiv Yar, and long-term goal - Kupyansk.
Day 1 of the offensive.
Key areas:
- Balakliya area:
Ukrainian troops liberated villages Verbivka, Yakovenkove, Stepok, Kalynivka, Taranushyne, on outskirts of Volokhiv Yar.
Based on unconfirmed information, Ukrainian troops managed to cross the river at Yakovenkove and gained control of Borshchivka, Borodoyarske, Morozivka, and initiated fight for Savyntsi.
- Izyum bridgehead: no changes
- North Donbass area: no changes
- Donetsk West: no changes.
- Kherson bridgehead: no chages.
1. Kharkiv:
••Orc 144th D pulled to Balakliya area.
Balakliya
Russian troops: (488th/144D), (752nd/3rd mD), (Samara + Baskiriya SOBR - military police)
The Ukraine bridgehead is on the eastern side of the Silverski Donetsk River; the town of Balakliya is on the river to the south. Ukrainian troops attacked in the morning; they managed to capture a village without much effort at all.
It was mostly screening troops; they are mostly forced conscripts from the Donetsk/Luhansk region and also military police - Samara and Baskiriya SOBR - the closest Western equivalent would be military’s police; there are some differences, but that’s what it is. Samara is a city in Russia on Volga River and Baskiriya is another region in Russia. We don’t know the size of this units. We would think that this is one company here and another company there. We don’t think there is much more than that.
Ukrainian command is attacking in the areas that are manned by the force transcripts from Luhansk and the Donetsk region, and that’s why initial attacks are successful; the same as on the Kherson bridgehead - so same is happening here. There is a tiny river there and Russia troops blew up the bridges and then stopped Ukrainian offensive there. Maybe the goal was avoiding street fighting here.
Another attack was directed a little bit more towards north, because there is a small river here. The river separates the road, and makes it a little bit out of reach for Ukrainian troops. The objective was to go northward and capture Volokhiv Yar, which is relatively major river crossing - across the river it really opens up the road north to Sheychenkove.
This is, we believe, the the goal of because this really crumbles all of the Izyum Bridgehead, and this whole situation here kills many birds with one shot, and it creates really, really difficult situation for the Russian forces. It is a little bit unclear what’s happening with the attacks in north around the Nova Burluk
All we know that Ukraine troops managed to get to Volokhiv Yar, but, based on our information, it is in Russian control. Based on some other information the 488th R/144th D is operating there; it’s not full strength and the same is true for 752 R/3rd MD. They all not full strength, just to make it clear. There was no pressure from the tiny Russian bridgehead on the western side of the Silverski Donetsk River which obviously makes sense.
Ukrainian troops moved toward the road M-03. There is a large ammunition depot that was captured by Russian troops when they captured Valaclia sometime in March of this year. This was huge was for the Ukrainian army in terms of their their ammunition supply. It’s unclear what happened to all of that ammunition that Russia troops managed to move it there; it’s still there - a totally unclear situation.
If you look just at this map it doesn’t look that the situation is is yet bad here right there but at the same time Russian sources report that those SOBR units were encircled here in Balaclia. Ukrainian troops managed to cross this river since it’s called Balaclik or something like that and then they captured Bershuka and started fighting.
There is essentially no in encirclement - Russian troops can easily withdraw evenly just by the field roads; they’re simply not not a problem - at the same time there were desperate calls from those units for support and and pledges to fight till death and things like that.
The only way to explain all of that is Ukrainian troops managed to cross river here liberated and then kind of like we were going down south. We’ll find out in the coming days what really happened here.
It’s unclear what units were participating: from what we’re understanding there may have been units from 92nd B, 93rd B, and 95th B, but no firm confirmation for any of that.
The danger and the significance of this attack for the Russian side is under huge threat because it reduces supply to Izyum; only what’s can can be brought in from the eastern side of the Oskil River: there are no major roads.
It really creates a dangerous situation for the Russian side: the only other option they have is they can throw some of the units back and create blocking position in this area.
The same time again there could be a problem similar to what’s going on with on Kherson bridgehead where you’re getting cut off because the bridges are destroyed and
I think Russian command is much more wary of the situation at this point because before it seems they discounted that opportunity, that threat significantly, and now they’re finding themselves in difficult position on Kherson Bridgehead.
2. Izyum bridgehead: No changes.
••Russian side was that they finally managed to squeeze out Ukrainian troops out of this village Kadema
3. North Donbas: No changes.
4. West of Donetsk: No changes.
5. Vugledar - Velyka Novosilka, Gulyapole: No changes.
6. Kherson bridgehead:
••Kherson bridgehead things here are more or less stable.
The most important Ukrainian bridgehead on the eastern side of Inhoulets River is essential at this point just bridgehead without any much movement or movement at all.
That may pose a problem for Ukrainian defenses here, because once Ukrainian positions and troops become more static, they become much better targets for Russian artillery.
Both sides do not practice much movement or active defense or any concealing actions; there is a lot of personal laziness on both sides. Its only movement that saves Ukrainian troops from heavy casualties, from artillery specifically.
Russian artillery is very stationary; it’s not all self-propelled howitzers, but mostly stationary guns. They are heavy calibers 152mm; so it takes a while to assemble them, and then move, and to put them in firing position at the new location.
Ukrainian command may decide to push further towards Nova Kahoka, but so far it looks like this has stalled. We’re pretty sure that this will be slow snail pace movements as we said that death by thousand cuts situation here.
The northern section also remains relatively stable, but there’s a very active fighting going on; there’s still pressure by Ukrainian troops here significant pressure on Russian troops to bridge their defenses and and achieve some decisive breakthrough because, what happened is Ukrainian troops did not manage to make decisive breakthrough of the Russian defenses.
This somewhat difficult withdrawal for Russian troops, nevertheless, they still managed to withdraw in orderly fashion and re-establish new frontline there.
There were some reports of Russian small-scale counter-attacks here directed at Mykolaiv. This is hitting into nowhere because the supply lines are sever to great extent, so ability to really resupply this troops is going down by day; this is a mindless attack to nowhere.
‘Wounded Ukrainian soldiers reveal steep toll of Kherson offensive’
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/07/ukraine-kherson-offensive-casualties-ammunition/
In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, 292 aircraft, 152 helicopters, 1897 unmanned aerial vehicles, 373 anti-aircraft missile systems, 4855 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 825 combat vehicles of multiple launch rocket systems, 3369 field artillery guns and mortars, and also 5360 units of special military vehicles.
-Russian MOD
‘US war-gamed with Ukraine ahead of counteroffensive and encouraged more limited mission’
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/08/31/politics/ukraine-us-wargames-counteroffensive/index.html
‘Analysis: Full gas storage no fix for Europe’s winter energy crunch’
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/full-gas-storage-no-fix-europes-winter-energy-crunch-2022-08-31/?mc_cid=5139a3e6f6&mc_eid=27088cb420/
Disaster unfolding for Putin in Kharkiv region. Kherson region, too.
The propaganda machine keeps on spinning. And Putin keeps on getting richer.
Interesting findings here by LJ:
‘Ukraine and Russia - It is a Math Problem’
https://sonar21.com/ukraine-and-russia-it-is-a-math-problem/
Chatter & Unconfirmed Rumors for 7 Sep 2022:
1. Reports of sporadic shooting in Kherson this week have been both ignored by Russian military spokesmen and also dismissed as the actions of ‘exuberant’ Russian soldiers in the city. Unconfirmed claims report Russian soldiers carrying out summary executions of Ukrainians and forcibly emptying out selected apartment buildings for use by Russian forces.
2. The Ukrainian highway T2110 between Balakliya and Volokhiv Yar is in Ukrainian hands again. There are no reports of fighting along the road but there are several geolocated videos of Ukrainian armor advancing along the road and entering Volokhiv Yar. It would appear that this advance was unopposed by Russian forces.
3. The 191st Mechanized Regiment (Tajikstan) of the Russian 41st Army is being subsumed into the 92nd Mechanized Regiment (Tajikstan) of the Russian 41st Army. No information as to why this is happening.
4. An unknown number of Finnish Air Force F/A-18C fighters and their crews participated in exercises at Nörvenich Air Base.
5. Even though Finland is not yet a full member of NATO it is being reported the Finnish government is working to participate in NATO’s ‘nuclear sharing’ program to allow the basing of NATO nuclear munitions in Finland.
6. Russian fighter aircraft have been observed to be conducting operations from a portion of the P27 highway east of Sevastopol.
That is all.
On what basis did anyone in Ukraine, the United States or NATO indulge the fantasy that Ukraine had a snowballs chance in the fiery realms of Hell of matching up with Russia?
As of today, Russia claims to have destroyed the following equipment deployed by Ukraine since February 24:
290 airplanes
152 helicopters
1,889 drones
373 anti-aircraft missile systems
4845 tanks
825 multiple rocker launchers
3,369 field artillery and mortars
5,343 special military automotve equipment
This means that Russia not only has destroyed Ukraine’s stockpiles that existed at the start of the war, but it is eliminating planes, tanks and MRLS systems subsequently provided by NATO and the United States.
Has Ukraine destroyed some Russian aircraft, helicopters, tanks and armored vehicles? Yes. But so what. Russian losses are only a minuscule fraction of their total strength and Russia, unlike Ukraine, has factories that are continuing to produce equipment and weapons lost or expended during the course of this conflict.
So with these numbers in mind, carefully consider what is happening to Ukraine’s military force in its current offensive. It is being decimated. Capturing a rural village or two or pushing the Donetsk or Luhansk militias backwards a few kilometers is tactically insignificant.
The truth of the matter is that Russia is relying on the Donbas militias to do the bulk of the front line fighting because it is home for those militias. Claims that the Russian military has suffered major casualties is delusional because the Russian forces are in the rear and providing fire support–ground and air–to the Donbas militias. Yes, there are some Russian troops on the frontlines in some places, but the cold, hard fact is that Russia has not committed a significant portion of its total military forces to the battle. Not yet, anyway.
The reality, which the United States and NATO are loathe to accept, is that Russia’s defeat of the Ukrainian military is inevitable; even if the United States or NATO made the suicidal decision to send their own forces into the fray.
“Russia not only has destroyed Ukraine’s stockpiles that existed at the start of the war, but it is eliminating planes, tanks and MRLS systems subsequently provided by NATO and the United States. Has Ukraine destroyed some Russian aircraft, helicopters, tanks and armored vehicles? Yes. But so what. Russian losses are only a minuscule fraction of their total strength and Russia, unlike Ukraine, has factories that are continuing to produce equipment and weapons lost or expended during the course of this conflict.
So with these numbers in mind, carefully consider what is happening to Ukraine’s military force in its current offensive. It is being decimated. Capturing a rural village or two or pushing the Donetsk or Luhansk militias backwards a few kilometers is tactically insignificant. The truth of the matter is that Russia is relying on the Donbas militias to do the bulk of the front line fighting because it is home for those militias. Claims that the Russian military has suffered major casualties is delusional because the Russian forces are in the rear and providing fire support–ground and air–to the Donbas militias. Yes, there are some Russian troops on the frontlines in some places, but the cold, hard fact is that Russia has not committed a significant portion of its total military forces to the battle. Not yet, anyway. The reality, which the United States and NATO are loathe to accept, is that Russia’s defeat of the Ukrainian military is inevitable; even if the United States or NATO made the suicidal decision to send their own forces into the fray.”
‘Ukraine and Russia - It is a Math Problem’
https://sonar21.com/ukraine-and-russia-it-is-a-math-problem/
Video: Failed 🇷🇺 ferry crossing Dnepr river
https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1567578866331295748