[GLDNGUN]

I decided to do some hard-core spreadsheet number crunching to see just how the rest of the GOP primary race is shaping up. A lot of pundits have said Donald Trump will have a hard time hitting the magic number of delegates prior to the convention which would lead to an open convention where anything is possible. They estimate he needs to win about 60% of the remaining delegates and since he hasn't won 60% of the delegates so far, they don't see how he does it.

This is actually very misleading for several reasons.

#1 - In EVERY prior state primary/caucus we've had 4 or more candidates on the ballot. Now we are down to 3. A FAIR comparison would be to compare how the remaining 3 candidates did against each other, not against the entire field in each election.

#2 - A couple of races have skewed the results due to "home state advantage". Kasich had a big win in Ohio, but that is his only win. Cruz had a big win in Texas. Unfortunately for those 2 candidates there are no more Ohio or Texas states coming up. We haven't even got to Trump's home state of New York, and we see how well he did in his 2nd home state (Florida). In fact, he knocked out both of Florida's "favorite sons" (Bush & Rubio). So a FAIR projection going forward would NOT include the results of Ohio and Texas.

#3 - The types of primaries coming up are dramatically in Trump's favor.

So, if we compare these 3 remaining candidates and how they have done head to head to head in the various types of (non-home state) primaries and caucuses, and then project how they will do in the remaining races, we should get a much more clear picture of what really lies ahead.

Ted Cruz has done best in "closed caucus" states. In fact, head to head to head vs. Trump & Kasich, Cruz has won 50% of those delegates, while Trump has won 40% and Kasich just 10%. Unfortunately for Cruz, only about 9% of the remaining delegates will be determined by closed caucuses.

About 36% of the remaining delegates will be in "open primary" races. In prior (non-home state) races Trump has taken about 68% of the delegates relative to 25% for Cruz and 7% for Kasich.

Ted Cruz has tried to sound optimistic about the upcoming races and how the "closed" races favor him. Indeed they have for the caucuses but not so much for the closed (non-home state) primaries. About 55% of the remaining delegates will come from closed primary races, and relative to each other in non-home state races, Donald Trump has taken 72% of the delegates, while Cruz has won 23% and Kasich 5%.

Overall, this means that Trump projects to win about 67% of the remaining delegates, while Cruz would win about 26%, and Kasich 7%. This would easily give Trump the nomination. If you use the NY Times Delegate Tool and set these %s to the respective candidates for the remaining races, you will see that Donald Trump will be just under the 1,237 delegates needed to win after the Washington caucus on 5/24/16. There are still 5 states to go after that, including winner-take-all California.

[Utmost Certainty]

According to this—assuming I’m reading it correctly—Trump need only win 42% of the remaining delegates:

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/03/16/upshot/trump-cruz-kasich-republican-delegate-lead.html

[wiseprince]

They think Trump will get to nthe convention with 1150 delegates and won’t be able to a hundred converts? Just pay $50,000 to 100 delegates and he’ll still be under budget

[MissH]

You can bet if it comes down to California to put Trump over the 1237 there will be an all out war lead by the GOPe to keep that from happening. I would expect every dirty trick in the book from them.

[weston]

Thank You for your research. Hope you are right!

[existtoexcel]

The MO recount, is that not an issue?

[Jeff Chandler]

It’s embarrassing listening to the Republican shills talk about how Trump has failed to poll 50%. What they are not telling us is if you combine Trump’s and Cruz’s numbers, that is the percentage of voters who reject the Republican establishment.

[profit_guy]

Where is USVI in that NYT chart? And is their any polling available there?

March 19, 2016 (9 bound delegates)

U.S. Virgin Islands (9) — Winner take all

[byrony]

California IS NOT WINNER TAKE ALL. It is by Congressional district similar to Missouri.

There are 53 Congressional districts times three delegates per district for a total of 159 delegates plus the winner of California gets an extra 10. I don’t know where the 172 number comes from and I’m guessing some superdelegates.

If it comes down to California, Cruz will get some delegates, primarily the Central Valley I’m guessing.

A lot of people are saying it’ll be winner take all and it’s not.

Here’s the CA GOP website that describes how delegates are chosen: https://www.cagop.org/national-delegation/

[Hostage]

No matter what discussion continues for analysis, the fact is clear that Kasich has stayed in the race for one reason and that is to act as a foil for the establishment in order to set the stage for a contested convention.

Now it will be interesting to see the narratives and tactics of the establishment in cutting deals with media outlets to ‘condition’ the public to accept a contested convention as normal.

Predictably there will be ‘history’ lessons of candidates that fought to the bitter end and how the ‘elders’ had to ‘settle’ the acrimony.

Predictably there may be narratives (lies) told of how delegates represent more than voters that show at polls but also those who could not make it to the polls such as the elderly and disabled. There will be accompanying interviews of people who ‘could not make it to the polls’ that appeared shocked that candidates like Trump have emerged, and ...’were this known they would surely have made it to the polls’.

Predictably there will be discussions among pundits that conventions are always contested for else why should there be a convention? People will be interviewed who express relief that there is a convention process that allows for the rational choice to emerge.

The veil is pulled back. The specter of free elections is revealed to be fraudulent but just don’t say that in public.

Kasich and Cruz will be encouraged to stay in to the end to deny Donald Trump a chance at being President of the United States. Donald too, has been lied to. He thought he could file ‘papers’ to run for President but will have to face the harsh reality that he is not allowed to attach himself to a party which is controlled by a private corporation known as the RNC. And Donald has been warned that he risks prosecution for inciting people to riot.

Ted Cruz is faced with a choice. He surely can see he has no chance to win the nomination without a convention fight and that his only hope to prevail in a convention fight is to cut a deal with the establishment leaders of the republican party. But first he must ‘apologize’.

Ted Cruz could decide heroically to fold in with Donald Trump but he may be too far down the road to Hell to turn back now. He has likely been captured and can no longer break free. He is owned, his children and wife are held hostage.

Can Donald Trump break off and win in a 3rd party run? Possibly but improbably. The outcome will be the same, the establishment will have their choice of Hillary or Kasich or. Biden or Romney. And the ‘news’ networks will light up with ‘conditioning’ scripts to prepare the public for the inevitable result emerging from a ‘normal’ period of contested debate. When all is said and done, the election cycle will have been a ‘thrilling spectacle’ dampened only by the sour grapes of persons who feel the election was stolen from a radical fringe candidate in Donald Trump whose supporters had the audacity to think that their 35% in one political party could swing America to a Hitler-like despot. Once again, it will be proclaimed that the sanity of the American system prevailed and the world can breathe a sigh of relief.

The silver lining is in the states that remain under God’s will. Should any primary now be counted in small margins, the expectation of fraud can assure that Donald never reaches 1237 delegates. But if enough people wake up and amass in record numbers at polls, there is a chance that Donald will exceed 1237 delegates. Even then, the perception of free elections will be in the hands of persons who seat the delegates and who make convention rules. It will be tough for them to hide their deceit and they may be forced to accept Trump as their predecessors accepted Reagan in 1980 but not without attaching their conditions in the person of George Herbert Walker Bush.

[TomGuy]

thegreenpapers.com

‘hard’ delegates

Trump 693
Cruz 422
Kasich 144

Rubio 172
Carson 8

uncommitted 26

[available 1000]

==

CNN

‘pledged’

Trump 662
Cruz 408
Kasich 143

Rubio 171
Carson 8

==

Google.com

Trump 673
Cruz 411
Kasich 143

[1061 available]

==

It is difficult to discern with reporting websites having such a disparity in their numbers.

[Nita Nupress]

Excellent analysis.

Now, how does one factor in the “time degradation” factor?

The longer the voter is exposed to The Texas Carpetbagger’s personality behavioral characteristics, speech patterns, and observable inclination for aligning himself with GOP Establishment, the more the voter tends to change his voting preferences toward Anti-Establishment and financially- independent candidate Donald J. Trump.

:-)