Posted on 04/15/2016 7:52:36 PM PDT by writer33
The conventional wisdom is that Donald Trump will win the New York primary with well over 50 percent and win nearly all of the Empire States 95 delegates this upcoming Tuesday. While this is certainly a possibility, there is also a chance, and not a far-fetched one that Trump will finish with under 50 percent of the vote. If that happens, it will signal a seismic shift in the race for the Republican nomination.
A look at recent polling makes it seem almost certain that Trump will finish with over 50 percent of the vote. The current New York Real Clear Politics average has the race at 53.4 percent Trump, 21.7 percent John Kasich, and 17.6 percent Ted Cruz. There are, on average, 7.3 percent undecided. That certainly seems like a large cushion for Trump.
There are warning signs for Trump, however. Some of them are reflected in the more recent polls, and others have to do with the laws of New York.
Yes, of course, independents can’t vote in closed GOP primaries. I wasn’t suggesting that they could or that it was something bad that they couldn’t. I mentioned that because some people claim that the same thing that happened in FL will happen in NY and that that somehow will mean that Trump won’t do as well as his polls suggest. Surprised independents couldn’t vote for Trump as they wanted to in FL, yet Trump still over-performed his poll numbers in the state. I see no reason why that won’t likely be the case in NY too.
so.... how’d this one turn out for you?
Trump had a great day in NY.
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