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China, Russia, and the Long 'Unipolar Moment'
The Diplomat ^ | N. Sears

Posted on 01/17/2018 10:22:52 AM PST by GoldenState_Rose

Despite the “rise and fall of the unipolar concert,” China and Russia’s balancing strategies have backfired: they are not leading to multipolarity, but are actually reinforcing unipolarity. The reason is that China and Russia’s balancing strategies have focused on regional “revisionism,” which has provoked powerful responses in East Asia and Europe to contain them.

Russia’s balancing strategy has to a large extent proven to be counter-productive. Instead of preventing the expansion of NATO through a “divide and conquer” strategy, or driving a diplomatic wedge between the United States and Europe, Russian revisionism has united NATO...Perhaps most illustrative of all, a number of the post-Soviet republics now increasingly look toward the United States and NATO for security, including Ukraine and the Baltic states of Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia.

China has also clearly left behind its “hide and bide” strategy in order to counter-balance the United States. China’s “new assertiveness” in its pursuit of revisionist aims in a number of maritime sovereignty disputes—as well as the broader balance-of-power in East Asia—is increasingly at odds with its official foreign policy of a “peaceful rise.”

However, instead of undermining U.S. influence and forcing states to “bandwagon” with China, Chinese revisionism is actually strengthening the U.S. alliance system in East Asia...such as with Japan, the Philippines, and Australia.

Anxiety about China’s rise is leading a number of ASEAN member states—such as Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia-to increasingly look toward the United States for security.

Yet the most important strategic development is the trilateral relationship that is gaining steam between India, Japan, and the United States.

China and Russia will most likely continue down their current paths of balancing through revisionism, which will only strengthen the U.S. alliance systems in East Asia and Europe, and therefore the unipolar moment of the United States’ geopolitical preeminence will endure.

(Excerpt) Read more at ...

TOPICS: History
KEYWORDS: asean; asia; australia; china; containment; dprk; eu; foreignpolicy; geopolitics; haley; indonesia; japan; kelly; korea; malaysia; mattis; mcmaster; multipolar; nato; nikkihaley; northkorea; philippines; putin; republicofkorea; russia; singapore; tillerson; trump; un; unipolar; unitednations
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Written two years ago, and writer has some other views I don't agree with -- but the trends he observes are holding true.
1 posted on 01/17/2018 10:22:52 AM PST by GoldenState_Rose
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To: TigerLikesRooster; cba123


2 posted on 01/17/2018 10:28:34 AM PST by GoldenState_Rose
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To: GoldenState_Rose
". . . Ukraine and the Baltic states of Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia."

But he misses the trend that all these countries have in common, they're all rapidly depopulating themselves.

They'll whine about a Russian threat, a Finnish threat, a Polish threat, or whatever other threat US will respond to with an influx of cash and warm bodies spending money there.

Draw a line along the Eastern borders of Germany, the Czech Republic, Austria, and Slovenia, then stay West of it. Let Poland and Hungary provide security to anyone east of that line who feels threatened and you'll be amazed at how fast no one feels threatened by Russians when the alternative is troops from countries where they stand up for Christianity whether the EU likes it or not.

If that's not enough, then send British and French troops without NATO connections to protect them just like the British and French protected Poland in WWII. If that's all insufficient, toss in a special MuzLame German brigade or two to impress the locals.

3 posted on 01/17/2018 11:03:12 AM PST by Rashputin (Jesus Christ doesn't evacuate His troops, He leads them to victory !!)
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To: GoldenState_Rose
Written two years ago,

Before Brexit...before Trump was elected...before Merkel's coalition failed....before Sebastian Kurz was elected...before Orban defied the EU...before Poland elected Mateusz Morawiecki...

IOW...Please stop regurgitating this Obama era neo-liberal pap!

4 posted on 01/17/2018 11:27:45 AM PST by mac_truck (aide toi et dieu t'aidera)
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To: Rashputin

Do you know much flack Poland, Estonia, and Ukraine have gotten from the Kremlin for tearing down their thousands of Lenin statues, Stalin and Derzhinsky reminders, and ugly Soviet war monuments? Look up the threats and hatred spewed out in response by the Russian government. All very recent statements I might add.

LoL at the “promoting Christianity’ claim. And Assad loves Jesus right? But hates Israel. Russia allied with Iran and keeping No. Korea, Venuzuela, and Cuba propped because and its own crony Islamic-fascist Ramzan Kadryov in Chechnya because?

Putin koolaid much?

All while Russia has decided it can somehow work their “Orthodox” agenda alongside the campaign to restore honoring Stalin’s memory as the great victor of WWII, with statues of him being erected everywhere and continuing to have Lenin’s open casket on full display in the center of Red Square.

Go visit these places and see for yourself. Russia’s Victory Day parade...then cross the border for Estonia’s Independence (from Russia) Day festivities.

And you will know there are two very different world views at work. Christian though for Russia?

Um. No. Unless your definition is building an Orthodox church on the condition that a military base with some Soviet throwback memoribilia be there first.

5 posted on 01/17/2018 11:39:14 AM PST by GoldenState_Rose
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To: mac_truck

Yes. Exactly. Those trends ultimately strengthen not weaken the West and our true values in the long run.

Putin needs a weakened West for his geopolitical alliances with Iran, Turkey, and other rogues to hold weight.

Kurz, even Macron, and Trump are open-minded about Russia. But Russia won’t compromise on Ukraine.

6 posted on 01/17/2018 11:43:03 AM PST by GoldenState_Rose
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To: GoldenState_Rose
Let the French start tearing up US cemeteries from the First and Second World Wars and see how much flack they get from the US. The issue is the same with the focus by Western media on the few Lenin statues the distraction. The real issue is the memorials to WWII Russian troops coming down. Lenin statues are an issue for a small, vocal, well connected to Western media, faction.

So, no one but you and your mommy are real Christians, right?

Sorry Charlie, only the best tuna can sucker FR readers with their troll BS.

7 posted on 01/17/2018 11:48:11 AM PST by Rashputin (Jesus Christ doesn't evacuate His troops, He leads them to victory !!)
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To: Rashputin

Why should countries be forced to honor their former Soviet or Nazi boccupiers and idols of such poisonous ideologies? Cemetaries were untouched to my understanding.

Meanwhile Putin condemns Gulag archivists to punitive psychiatric treatment.

Defend the USSR and the KGB servants to its dead empire all you want, but stop insulting the Christian faith in the process.

8 posted on 01/17/2018 11:54:03 AM PST by GoldenState_Rose
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To: Rashputin

You’re really out there. Do you seriously believe that Freepers think Poland removing these thousands of Lenin statues a totalitarian evil invader installed there is in any way similar to the hypothetical desecration of US war graves in France?

I don’t think you believe something that stupid. I think you’re shamelessly telling a lie.

9 posted on 01/18/2018 1:45:03 AM PST by Krosan
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To: GoldenState_Rose
They should honor the members of the Soviet Army, many, many, Poles among them, who freed them from the Nazis. Lenin or Stalin, no way. I'm all for the Lenin statues coming down if that's what they want but the fact of the matter is that they've torn down many war memorials that listed names and dates of birth of the Poles and Russians who died driving out the Nazis. The media here, though, focuses on the Lenin statues and that's it.

As for Putin "condemns Gulag archivists", I say it's BS given the fact that Putin pushed for and dedicated the historical research center and museum in Moscow to remember the millions of victims of Stalin and has had a lot to say about how evil Stalin was as well as the whole system that ran the Gulag.

Your BS about me defending the KGB is just that, BS, but then you knew that before you typed it but like the lapdog media in this country, anyone who doesn't believe the current Russian government and FSB are just like the Soviets and the KGB is someone your numbskull masters say you should attack.

Well, keep up the good work, pal, I'm sure the crowd who kiss Hillary's butt and who came up with that line of crap are proud of you.

10 posted on 01/18/2018 3:35:52 AM PST by Rashputin (Jesus Christ doesn't evacuate His troops, He leads them to victory !!)
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To: Rashputin; dfwgator

Over the holidays: I worked through reading a series of a personal accounts of that period...not from Poland, but from Russians themselves. As well as some Ukrainians and Belarussians.

(I have pre-Revolution Russian ancestry by the way on grandfather’s side, but by World War II my grandfather’s family was in France and my part Jewish grandmother was (before they met) lived on the Czech/Austria border.

She and millions like her had to experience BOTH Nazi and Soviet conquest and occupation. And her home was ultimately raided and seized. So to her: (Nazis and Soviets) they are one in the same in terms of what she and her family personally endured at the hands of both.

This is just the way of things in Europe to this day: the Western Allies (British, US troops) to the dismay of Russia — who thinks death toll alone warrant them respect —> the Western allies are recalled with a conclusive agreement in their just cause and overall integrity.

It’s a conundrum, because huge enough swaths of civilians — do not recount a Red Army marked by honor and heroism. This reality vastly overshadows what positive feats there may have been. Enough monstrous behavior marked the ranks so that even those who identified with their cause (Soviet citizens) fell victim to all forms of abuse and rape. Or the Soviet system was itself killing them off around the same period via famine or what have you.

Separate from WWII: the most poignant account I read was about a prisoner exchange between Finnish and Russian troops during a Finno-Russian conflict...

When the Finnish prisoners returned to their brothers in arms, they were greeted by hugs and cheers.

The released Russian prisoners on the other hand, were spat on and scolded by their own comrades for being stupid enough to get caught in the first place thereby insulting the motherland. (It hearkens to mind the shame/honor ethos of the Japanese.)

I am not saying these kinds of accounts are all there is, but that there is enough so as to prevent a cohesive united narrative of “Red Army as selfless heroes.” In the collective European consciousness.

Is it even worth recalling the “Rape of Berlin” - where after victory, thousands upon thousands of German women fell victim to systematic gang rape and abuse at the hands of the Red Army? And that those soldiers were encouraged by orders from above to enjoy such spoils of war?

This is the way of historical memory: enough of Europe equates the Nazi symbols with that of the Sickle and Hammer. Russians do what they do to honor the memory of their fallen, but don’t expect of Europe to start falling in line. Enough people in places like Poland especially recall the memory of the Red Army with immense pain and anger which lingers to this day.

11 posted on 01/18/2018 7:47:19 AM PST by GoldenState_Rose
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To: GoldenState_Rose

General Anders said it best, “With the Nazis we lose our lives, with the Soviets, we lose our souls.”

12 posted on 01/18/2018 7:58:27 AM PST by dfwgator
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To: dfwgator

You posted under this article a few days ago, but didn’t say if you agree with this prediction?

13 posted on 01/22/2018 12:08:34 PM PST by GoldenState_Rose
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To: GoldenState_Rose

The one country I’d really be interested seeing is Vietnam, if they come begging to the US. We know they hate the Chinese.

14 posted on 01/22/2018 12:14:46 PM PST by dfwgator
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To: Pearls Before Swine

*ping* Saw your comment earlier about multipolar world in other thread and would like to know your thoughts on this article by Nathan Sears.

15 posted on 01/30/2018 8:23:33 AM PST by GoldenState_Rose
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To: GoldenState_Rose

Will read and get back to you. Thanx for pinging me.

16 posted on 01/30/2018 9:31:03 AM PST by Pearls Before Swine
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To: GoldenState_Rose

OK, I read the article.

I think the author is partly correct and partly incorrect. He says that the rising force of Russia and China is being counterbalanced by a potential alliance of the US with Japan and India (Vietnam would fit in, too). That might turn out to be so, but it wouldn’t be unipolar.

After WW II, it really was a unipolar world. The US was undamaged, and a huge industrial capacity, and the most powerful army, especially when you count its overwhelming advantage in nuclear weaponry at the time. It also had a world-dominating economy. For many years, it could influence events all over the world, practically dictating them.

I think the initial impetus for this was noble—we didn’t want another Great War. But, over time, it was painted as imperialism, military, cultural, and economic. Also over the years, the US lost its industrial dominance through off-shoring. We may have the best first punch military and military equipment, but China’s got the steel forges. Furthermore, they have manpower. Russia is probably ahead of us in nuclear weapons because we’ve sat on our hands for at least a generation. They have ten times as many tactical nukes as we do. Who knows what advantages they might have in bio/chem weapons?

So, the author is confusing the rise of a US-led alliance with the dominant strength of the unipolar US of the post-war years. This new alliance may or may not be stronger than the Russia-China axis, but even if it is stronger, its not unipolar. The situation is more like pre-World War I than post-World War II.

My take, FWIW.

17 posted on 01/30/2018 11:17:55 AM PST by Pearls Before Swine
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To: Pearls Before Swine

Interesting. Well i believe the biggest battle is for moral hegemony...meaning whether American *values* triumph. And I believe with Trump, the momentum is on our side. The stirrings of freedom are being felt in places like Iran, with their recent protest/uprisings for example

And the pro-sovereignty and anti-EU sentiments in Europe seem to be pushing countries like France and Austria in a more free market driven direction...Countries want to rediscover themselves and their capacities- not just sell out to China I would hope.

I don’t think communism will make a Cold War level comeback. Islam is not taking over, and Chinese/Russian models of govt and repressive cultures are not what people with blank pages aspire to and dream for. At the end of the day, people the world over respect and look up to America most.

And the more China/Russia try to undermine that reality, the more they undermine their own opportunities to attain genuine respect and appreciation from the world.

18 posted on 01/30/2018 12:01:07 PM PST by GoldenState_Rose
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To: GoldenState_Rose

He’s talking power politics, while you are talking moral authority and hearts and minds. I hope it turns out the way he and you are projecting, although your reasoning is different.

But, to me it is possible that barbarity will triumph over civilization, at least for a while. Look at what the Muslims did in India, or the brutal expansion of Muslim Tamarlane. Or, look at what the Mongols did, although their conquests receded back more quickly. And, there’s always the fall of Rome and Constantinople to consider, too.

19 posted on 01/30/2018 12:13:27 PM PST by Pearls Before Swine
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To: GoldenState_Rose
The thing is that, thanks to Obambi, former or potential allies don't want to ally with the USA - because they look at what happened in the Middle East and figure out that the US doesn't stand by its allies while Russia does.

That is sad.

20 posted on 04/03/2018 4:22:43 AM PDT by Cronos (Obama's dislike of Assad is not based on his brutality but that he isn't a jihadi Moslem)
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