Posted on 03/06/2018 4:42:30 PM PST by lasereye
Republicans are learning an uncomfortable reality about the political environment for 2018: Tax cuts, conservative culture-war staples, and even Nancy Pelosi herself probably won’t be enough to overcome the deep hole that President Trump has put them in. With the White House awash in scandal and struggling to articulate its agenda, the political mood has turned so grim that Republicans are in danger of losing an upcoming special election in the heart of Trump country.
That’s the lesson to draw from the surprisingly competitive campaign Democrat Conor Lamb is running in a Pittsburgh-area district Trump easily carried by 20 points, surviving millions of dollars in outside GOP attack ads portraying Lamb as a liberal in disguise. Even a close loss in such a reliably conservative area would raise red flags that Democrats are on the verge of a major landslide in the November midterms.
If Lamb wins, it would be an unmistakable verdict that the healthy economy and Trump tax cuts will be overshadowed by the administration’s dysfunction and roiling suburban anger. Though the economy may play to the GOP’s advantage, the culture wars have turned squarely in the Democratic Party’s favor—and that’s what matters in today’s politics.
Here’s how tricky things have gotten for Republicans: GOP outside groups have dramatically scaled back their ads promoting the party’s tax cut, with the messaging barely moving the needle in the district’s working-class confines. The latest round of advertisements focus on law-and-order issues, like immigration and crime. A new spot from the Paul Ryan-aligned Congressional Leadership Fund super PAC slams Lamb for supporting “amnesty to illegal immigrants” because he “worked in the Obama administration.” A National Republican Congressional Committee ad portrays Lamb as soft on crime because he negotiated a plea deal with a notorious drug kingpin during his tenure as a federal prosecutor. These culture-war ads are reminiscent of those run by Ed Gillespie in his failed Virginia gubernatorial campaign, and they carry the whiff of desperation.
Meanwhile, Republicans are sufficiently concerned about the energy from the Democratic base that CLF is distributing a mailer in suburban precincts of Allegheny County “thanking” Lamb for supporting gun rights. It’s a cynical attempt to dampen Democratic enthusiasm for his campaign. The mailer, first reported by The Washington Post, underscores how even in a district where Second Amendment support is strong, gun control has become a fresh rallying cry for a supercharged Democratic electorate post-Parkland.
In another warning sign for Republicans, there are indications that conservative-minded voters in this district value government entitlements as much as tax cuts. Lamb’s rebuttal to the GOP tax-cut argument was that he supported “middle-class tax cuts” but not ones that could lead to cuts to Social Security and Medicare. In an acknowledgment that the Democratic message resonated, a new CLF ad turns the tables and accuses Pelosi of supporting “massive Medicare cuts” while arguing that Lamb “won’t protect seniors.” As Republicans learned in the 2016 presidential campaign, the agenda backed by GOP donors doesn’t necessarily jibe with the issues that the GOP rank-and-file cares about—especially in a blue-collar district like this one.
Republicans are eager to pin a disappointing result in this election on their candidate—state Rep. Rick Saccone—but the reality is the race is being defined on Trump’s terms. Saccone is running as an unapologetic Trump supporter, calling himself the president’s “wingman” in an interview with National Journal last month. Trump will be campaigning for Saccone on March 10, and he is likely to promote his newly announced tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. It’s a protectionist position that Saccone quickly embraced, and one that is popular with the district’s sizable union membership.
This southwest Pennsylvania district is about as Trumpian as it gets: racially homogeneous, predominantly blue-collar, and filled with energy workers revolutionizing the region’s economy. To Lamb’s credit, he’s run a disciplined campaign and staked out moderate views on guns and fracking that have distinguished him from typical Democrats. But if Republicans can’t hold onto this seat with more than $9 million of outside GOP money invested here, it will serve as an awfully rude awakening to what’s likely to come for the midterms.
The Democrats have 10 Senate seats to defend in Red States.
With Trump on the campaign trail the base is coming out in force in Nov.
That will change in Nov.
We will win some Senate Seats.
He will be on the campaign trail for it.
Saturday night I listened to financial gurus I respect, Larry Kudlow and then Sunday, Bob Brinker on Trump's tariff position. To a man, they think it is a bad idea, guests included. And I knew Brinker leans to the left at times.
Mr. Brinker had a guest, Lawrence or Larry, didn't ever catch the last name pronunciation or even "sounds like", Boston University, economics something. He started in on Trump is mentally ill on several levels. Trump is dangerous. The tariff idea is terrible and how it went for Hoover and the depression. Trump needs to be impeached (at least twice). Sent back to NY. Then capped it off with being in Boston, the flooding and proof of global warming.
I haven't found a video of the exchange, haven't looked very hard. Mr. Brinker didn't challenge a word of his far-left rant. Neither did Kudlow who is usually totally supportive of Trump.
I applaud what Trump is trying to do. Should have been prevented long ago by both Republicans and Democrats. Even at the time I felt we were being betrayed; China by the Clintons and NAFTA by GWB, and far more. And I have a personal stake in the Mexican trade deal but am willing to look further than my own personal stake and what is or would have been best for the country.
So how do you propose to get through to the populace? Nobody will listen because they are in such mind fogs with their cell phone addictions, FB, MSM, sports, gender politics, Democrat temper tantrums and propaganda (I know maybe Trump has a few temper tantrums, too, and refuse to look beyond their own selfish interests, or what they perceive as such, and then accuse people like me of being incapable of critical thinking, all forms of insulting Trumpisisms, and what we've all come to expect.
Even those damn MSM sypophants must have seen increases in their paychecks but have to tow the party line. And the damn alphabet news media are corporations, no? Surely they will benefit from the capital gains tax cut.
Yea, they are going to hold 10 Senate seats in deep Red States!
And we will retake those in the Nov. election.
Trump isn't your typical politician and you guys keep underestimating him.
The swamp still controls the DOJ and the FBI. That is the apex of swamp power when the Dems don't control the WH.
Haven’t the GOP taken a lead in the generic poll for the first time in decades?
No, we control both, the rats are jumping off the sinking ship.
That's your opinion. Rosenstein and Sessions won't do anything to prosecute the Deep State. Deep State Rosenstein remains in charge.
THIS IS BS AND THEY ARE JUST SETTING THE STAGE FOE MASSIVE VOTER FRAUD
“Haven’t the GOP taken a lead in the generic poll for the first time in decades?”
__________________________________________________________
Yes!
The RATS were polling +12 in the generic poll a few months ago.
The latest numbers show the generic GOP polling +1.
That is a HUGE shift, and good news....as long as it continues.
I hope you are right.
No you’re wrong. He picked deceitful Sessions who stabbed him in the back KNOWING he was under the protection of McConnell, Ryan, etc cheered on by Romney.
He was openly threatened with impeachment if he fired Rosenstein or Sessions.
The Congressional leadership and the GOP shadow mainstream of Bush, Romney and others have trashed all of Trumps efforts in his first year.
His victories have been IN SPITE of the GOP. It is they who have put the party in any hole it may be in.
I’m trying to be clear-eyed about this. On the one hand, Democrat rank and file are furious and want Trump impeached for winning an election they believe he had no business winning. On the other hand, the DNC is broke and the RNC flush with cash.
GOP voters always turn out in midterms. Are they paying attention to these special elections? Will their turnout be able to match Democrats’ in November?
The only thing I really care about is holding the Senate as that means we can keep stocking the federal judiciary for another couple of years. Hopefully Darth Bader Ginsburg dies, and we can replace her. If the Democrats take the House and impeach Trump but the Senate stops it there, hopefully that’ll finally be enough to remind voters in 2020 that these communists mean business and need to be tossed out in droves.
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