Didn't take long for the narrative to move from Texas to another "PENDING DISASTER FOR THE REPUBLICANS!!!"
Posted on 03/06/2018 4:42:30 PM PST by lasereye
Republicans are learning an uncomfortable reality about the political environment for 2018: Tax cuts, conservative culture-war staples, and even Nancy Pelosi herself probably won’t be enough to overcome the deep hole that President Trump has put them in. With the White House awash in scandal and struggling to articulate its agenda, the political mood has turned so grim that Republicans are in danger of losing an upcoming special election in the heart of Trump country.
That’s the lesson to draw from the surprisingly competitive campaign Democrat Conor Lamb is running in a Pittsburgh-area district Trump easily carried by 20 points, surviving millions of dollars in outside GOP attack ads portraying Lamb as a liberal in disguise. Even a close loss in such a reliably conservative area would raise red flags that Democrats are on the verge of a major landslide in the November midterms.
If Lamb wins, it would be an unmistakable verdict that the healthy economy and Trump tax cuts will be overshadowed by the administration’s dysfunction and roiling suburban anger. Though the economy may play to the GOP’s advantage, the culture wars have turned squarely in the Democratic Party’s favor—and that’s what matters in today’s politics.
Here’s how tricky things have gotten for Republicans: GOP outside groups have dramatically scaled back their ads promoting the party’s tax cut, with the messaging barely moving the needle in the district’s working-class confines. The latest round of advertisements focus on law-and-order issues, like immigration and crime. A new spot from the Paul Ryan-aligned Congressional Leadership Fund super PAC slams Lamb for supporting “amnesty to illegal immigrants” because he “worked in the Obama administration.” A National Republican Congressional Committee ad portrays Lamb as soft on crime because he negotiated a plea deal with a notorious drug kingpin during his tenure as a federal prosecutor. These culture-war ads are reminiscent of those run by Ed Gillespie in his failed Virginia gubernatorial campaign, and they carry the whiff of desperation.
Meanwhile, Republicans are sufficiently concerned about the energy from the Democratic base that CLF is distributing a mailer in suburban precincts of Allegheny County “thanking” Lamb for supporting gun rights. It’s a cynical attempt to dampen Democratic enthusiasm for his campaign. The mailer, first reported by The Washington Post, underscores how even in a district where Second Amendment support is strong, gun control has become a fresh rallying cry for a supercharged Democratic electorate post-Parkland.
In another warning sign for Republicans, there are indications that conservative-minded voters in this district value government entitlements as much as tax cuts. Lamb’s rebuttal to the GOP tax-cut argument was that he supported “middle-class tax cuts” but not ones that could lead to cuts to Social Security and Medicare. In an acknowledgment that the Democratic message resonated, a new CLF ad turns the tables and accuses Pelosi of supporting “massive Medicare cuts” while arguing that Lamb “won’t protect seniors.” As Republicans learned in the 2016 presidential campaign, the agenda backed by GOP donors doesn’t necessarily jibe with the issues that the GOP rank-and-file cares about—especially in a blue-collar district like this one.
Republicans are eager to pin a disappointing result in this election on their candidate—state Rep. Rick Saccone—but the reality is the race is being defined on Trump’s terms. Saccone is running as an unapologetic Trump supporter, calling himself the president’s “wingman” in an interview with National Journal last month. Trump will be campaigning for Saccone on March 10, and he is likely to promote his newly announced tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. It’s a protectionist position that Saccone quickly embraced, and one that is popular with the district’s sizable union membership.
This southwest Pennsylvania district is about as Trumpian as it gets: racially homogeneous, predominantly blue-collar, and filled with energy workers revolutionizing the region’s economy. To Lamb’s credit, he’s run a disciplined campaign and staked out moderate views on guns and fracking that have distinguished him from typical Democrats. But if Republicans can’t hold onto this seat with more than $9 million of outside GOP money invested here, it will serve as an awfully rude awakening to what’s likely to come for the midterms.
“Whatever. I don’t feel like panicking yet.”
I hear you. The pearl clutching makes this place less confident, and less comfortable these past few days.
VSGDJT has this.
Trump will rally the base since the agenda is our agenda.
Wondering if anyone’s heard about #HRCvideo ?
You still have no idea what will happen in the next six months.
Trump didn’t put them here. The Republicans failing to support their own platform caused this.
No clue. POTUS is a closer.
Even as the daily revelations hit, they see nothing ahead.
This will be like no Election path to November in US history.
Go America!!
Agreed.
Dem tool.
Trump is becoming more popular and his opponents are looking a bit silly parroting all the Russia fear-mongering. The economy is humming right along despite all the chicken littles. PC and snowflake culture is wearing mighty thin. I just don’t see a blue wave. I see some pushback but I don’t see widespread dissatisfaction with Trump’s performance. I do still see GOPe interference and footdragging which is the real threat to Republican electoral success.
Hope you are right - seems lately that far too many “Trump Supporters” give vocal support and instead of going with the thought that “WE WILL BAND TOGETHER”, it’s them “other Trump supporters” who will go out and get the job done for us - our side becomes pathetically lethargic at the worst possible times....while the Dems get super-energized and focused on each event.
Realistic Problems:
1. The Russia probe drones on and on (as they intended) and shows no signs of ending (as they intended). It’s just bad headlines, and of course I don’t believe Trump colluded with the Russians, but the relentless negative headlines trying to imply guilt may have an impact.
2. The “chaos”. I said early on (as in during the transition) that Trump was putting some people in place who clearly didn’t agree with what he ran on - establishment people. That has proven to have caused problems with a lot of staff leaving. Rex Tillerson, for example, doesn’t seem to jive with Trump (not shocking at all because he was recommended by Condi Rice). Gary Cohn is another example, and he’s now gone. McMaster purged the NSC of the pro-Trump people - don’t know whether he stays or goes.
Plus, you have cabinet people who get caught doing stupid things like Shulkin, Carson (who I still love) with his dining room set, Pruitt, etc. Do I think the media would have dug into the cabinet like this if it was a Dem President? No.
However, the relentless negative news likely takes its toll, and they can portray Trump as corrupt by reporting on every little detail and Obama as scandal free by not reporting on or minimizing scandals.
3. The failure of the GOP to get things done they promised like repeal Obamacare and replace it with something better, the wall, infrastructure, etc. Some spend more time infighting and virtue signaling than getting things done (not all of them - there are some great ones up there).
I read a piece where a woman was talking about supporting Lamb over Saccone (she voted for Trump - believe she was a Dem). Anyway, she’s concerned over healthcare, social security, etc. and it’s leading her back Dem. The truth is that in order to keep those working class voters, you can’t just repeal Obamacare without replacement. That was as popular as a lead balloon last time, and that concerns people.
Lots of Lamb signs in Mt. Lebanon.
Panic?
Doubt it. Some concern Saccone may have lost lead—Baris says 1 point either way. Early Ds had an enthusiasm gap.
Trump goes in this week. D enthusiasm gap so far has been illusory everywhere but 1 FL race.
But yesterday was a red wave in TX. Ds at 2002 turnout levels.
Er, did you miss AZ Lat week and TX yesterday? You mean red wave, right?
Where Ds have won-—outside of FL state house seat-—it’s been with record low turnout. CT house seat D won by 51 votes with TOTAL turnout of 3000. GA senate seat=9% turnout.
These local/state elections are viewed as a nuisance by our side.
Saccone may lose, but don’t buy “blue wave” tripe. AZ and TX are better indicators of the real blowout that is coming.
The weird thing is that what is geographically now known as the 18th, will be called the 14th on the new maps.
Which is why the GOPe hate him..
Didn't take long for the narrative to move from Texas to another "PENDING DISASTER FOR THE REPUBLICANS!!!"
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