Posted on 10/02/2020 10:15:15 AM PDT by bort
The current conventional wisdom is that 2020 will shatter previous election turnout numbers. This narrative is largely being claimed by progressive academics and journalists who have (correctly) observed that absentee, vote by mail ballot ("VBM") requests and returns have been off the charts this year, with Democrats "out-requesting" VBM by a 2 to 1 margin. Au contraire, a look at the numbers and a little logical thinking suggest that 2020 will have the LOWEST turnout in a generation. Consider the following:
1) There is ZERO evidence that black voters will turn out in AVERAGE numbers, let alone RECORD numbers. I have noted before the North Carolina VBM numbers, which suggest a drop-off in black voting. My job requires me to interact with working-class black folks daily. Not only is there ZERO enthusiasm for Joe Biden, there is also a disproportionate, palpable fear of the China Virus among many blacks that is far and above whites.
Question: If you have little enthusiasm for Biden and you think you might DIE by going to a polling place, will you vote? Finally, black men are "ok" with Trump. They may not vote for him in huge numbers, but they are not turned off by his lack of decorum. Prior to Obama, black turnout was typically below 60%, but then jumped to 68% with Obama on the ticket (it was 64% in 2016). Prediction: Black turnout drops to 57%. Continued below.
3) Rural vs. Urban/Suburban. Who is more likely to be scared of the China Virus? Rural men or urban women? Rural voters or suburban women? Working-class white guys or 25 y/o women who wear pink hats? Trump supporters or Democrats? Bottom line: Potential Trump voters are far less scared of the China virus and, therefore, are not afraid of showing up to a crowded polling place. Prediction: Democrats will suffer from a drop-off in in-person early and election day voting b/c they disproportionately fear the China Virus. Bonus prediction: In states with lots of small-town and rural voters AND lots of young Karens (think Virginia and Minnesota), expect Trump to exceed expectations.
4) As Ravi, SpeedyinTexas, and LS have noted, Republicans have substantially closed the registration gap in critical states like Fla., NC, PA, etc. as compared to 2016. By not doing door-to-door and college campus canvassing, the Democrats probably lost a few million voters nationwide who ordinarily would get registered and vote Dem.
5) The "gender gap" will be a lot closer because of the China Virus. Again, women are far more likely to be scared of the virus and thus will be far more likely not to show up at a crowded polling place.
In short, don't believe the polling that is typically relying on Obama-type Democrat turnout. This electorate will be older, whiter, and more conservative. Prediction: Record low turnout and a Trump win.
Ping.
I think the turnout will be high but with this mail in system and covid I think that all normal assumptions could be challenged in this election. They could reject hundreds of thousands of ballots for example.
“This electorate will be older”
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Being that such are covid’s favorite snack, you probably won’t see as many who want to go out on a cold November day to mix it up with the unwashed dregs of humanity.
Expect the numbers of the 50+ category to be lower than in previous elections, for both sides.
“not afraid of showing up to a crowded polling place”
I will be wearing a mask but standing in line to vote for TRUMP no matter how long the line is.
I think election turnout exceeds previous numbers in absolute terms because of a bigger population, but on a percentage basis, won’t be super large.
What does all that mean? A BASE ELECTION. Forget about turning out the undecided. Turn out your supporters.
I think the turnout will be high but with this mail in system and covid I think that all normal assumptions could be challenged in this election
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With a FREEPER handle like “Brilliant,” I’m not sure I can quibble with you! But I will. I have brought up the 2006 gubenatorial election in Maryland between the Republican incumbent Bob Erhlich and Democrat Martin O’Malley. I’m forgetting the reason why, but the Rs and state GOP decided to push R voters to vote by mail. They sent out absentee applications to every R in the state, put out 4 or 5 robo-calls encouraging Rs to vote by mail, etc. And we did. And we set a huge VBM record. And the Rs and Bob Ehrlich got CRUSHED that year. All we did was cannibalize our election day vote. Worst Republican turnout ever. I think that is what is happening right now. The Dems bombared their voters with pleas to VBM. They are not getting a bunch of new voters to vote—they are getting their “super-voters” to vote by mail. Think about this: They sent letters, put out robo-calls, etc. basically telling their supporters that voting in person is dangerous. The Democrat base is scared shit-less about the China Virus. Meanwhile, rural America and working-class Americans largely scoff at the China Virus.
The counter to this is that black voters came out to support Biden over Sanders. Sanders was beating Biden handily until they got to states with significant black voters. Sanders got spanked the rest of the way.
The problem is all of the Democrats who will vote early and often.
This 50+ voter will be voting for President Trump in person, regardless of the weather. (I live in southern Arizona anyway, so how bad could it be?) As for the unwashed dregs, I won’t complain about them if they don’t complain about me.
There’s little evidence of any particular position at this time - other than that it is shaking out in a different manner from typical in a number of ways.
VBM has an even lower effort threshold than signing up and heading in to vote. It seems likely that it invites even more frivolous voting.
Expect the numbers of the 50+ category to be lower than in previous elections, for both sides.
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Living in Maryland, I live in a Democrat world. I can’t believe how scared these people are. Beta males who wear masks the size of John Candy’s underwear. Women who freak out when they see me on an elevator without a mask. By contrast, my relatives who live in rural areas laugh at how scared the East Coast, etc. is. The reality is that older voters will vote, like in NC, where they are switching to VBM. The drop-off will come from infrequent Dem. voters, black voters, and young Karens.
Black voters for Trump will turn out in record numbers
I agree with your analysis! One thing I worry about is polling places. I’m not sure these are being staffed adequately in the COVID era and I wouldn’t put it beyond D’s to employ voter suppression tactics.
I hope you’re right.
“This 50+ voter will be voting for President Trump in person”
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It won’t impact the hardcore base of either party very much. With the casual voter it might be different.
I disagree. I see a lot of pissed voters and when the citizenry is pissed, they get out and vote. Just my .02
Also, one or two Biden signs in my Colorado neighborhood. Way more Trump signs. So I would say that the enthusiasm is with the GOP.
Another interesting essay.
“I will be wearing a mask but standing in line to vote for TRUMP no matter how long the line is.”
Same with me.
The DemonRats can conjure up all the votes they need through the mail scam.
Fair point. But do you disagree that Democrat turnout will drop off?
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