Posted on 11/06/2022 9:23:24 AM PST by Cathi
Interesting Trafalgar results.
It's a well known phenomenon that election polls are more accurate if they ask participants how others will vote: Much more predictive than asking who are you going to vote for. This way it includes all kinds of people who are not participating in polls and avoids people hesitating to tell the truth about who they plan to vote for.
So Trafalgar always asks this question. Most recent results (October 31, 2022) were published.
"Who do you think your neighbors and friends will vote for in the 2022 midterm elections?"
Republicans -- 60.6%
Democrats -- 35.7%
Third Party -- 3.6%
I expect 120% of the People will vote nationwide ……. The lamestream media will praise the People found the means to be greater than 100%
Interesting polling technique.
Maybe off topic, but this points up, how people on the conservative side, may be reluctant to tell strangers how they plan to vote. And if people aren’t truthful with pollsters, the polls will not be accurate.
A triumph for Democracy.
The End always justifies the Means ….
It also helps the HUGE problem that pollsters are having with polling Republicans. They refuse to participate in greater numbers with each election and this one is expected to be particularly bad after 2020. They are not inclined to cooperate with liberal pollsters.
I think a significant amount of Dems who sent in mail-in ballots this time voted for the Republicans. Even Dems (at least the ones with brains) are sickened by what’s happened to the country in the last 2 years.
The goons at Homeland and the FBI can just as easily use this technique as Tafalgar. Biden has called half the American people 'domestic terrorists'... we need to stay aware.
Thank you very much. I don’t know how to bring screen shots on posts so I appreciate your help very much.
Conventional polling has deception built into it. When you ask someone what they are going to do, you introduce incentive to deceive, whether by intent or subconsciously. Respondents may engage in self deception. “I’m DEFINITELY going to vote in November!” Ah yes, good intentions, or perhaps wanting to sound like an engaged citizen, when actually you won’t show up to the polls. Things like that. When you ask a respondent how you perceive OTHERS will act, you get far more honest answers about their perceptions.
““I’m DEFINITELY going to vote in November!””
Speaking of which turnout numbers I have seen so far have shown decreases in Democrat voting in some areas. I think some of them are going to stay home.
“Who do you think your neighbors and friends will vote for?”
Third Party — 3.6%
You have to generalize your answer to cover your many friends & neighbors. Do the people who answered “Third Party” have a single friend? I cannot imagine anybody who would say all their friends and neighbors are voting third party. Out of all of our friends and neighbors, I can think of MAYBE one who would go third party. And that was back in 2016 when people just couldn’t vote for Trump and wouldn’t vote “D” — it was kind of a symbolic protest vote. That dynamic is not at work now.
How could you answer “Third Party” to such a question? That answer makes no sense.
One might even say a triumph of the Will. /s
Marist polling called yesterday, so as one of the few caller ID’s I recognized, I answered and took the poll. It was pretty legit. They did ask how friends &neighbors would vote, which is difficult to know since I don’t prey much when it comes to politics.
They also asked landline or cell phone.
With the modern age of oppressive government red flag laws, and hostile biased media, who in their right mind tells a pollster the way they really feel?
Fear of IDing as a MAGA is often counter-balanced with a desire to tell these so-and-sos what’s really up.
And then, we toy with the idea of flat misleading pollsters so as to ruin their reputation.
This is interesting though the so called polling expert is an annoying excuse making liberal.
MACDONALD: (On Florida) On balance, the early vote in a typical election is usually won by Democrats, or at least registered Democrats. This election cycle it is the Republicans who are winning the early vote.
So far, as of (November 2), registered Republicans have an almost 180,000-vote advantage in both the mail ballots and the in-person early vote, and most of that advantage is actually coming from the in-person.
But still, all these Democrats have mail ballots. And here’s the curious thing: They’re not returning them. Not to the same degree or rate that the Republicans are.
So if you look at the return rate, as of (November 2), 48% of Democrats have returned their mail ballots compared with 55% of Republicans. So those are people who have a mail ballot in their hand, and you’re seeing a big disparity there in these return rates.
Part of what’s happening in Florida is a self-fulfilling prophecy that people who don’t believe that the Democrats can win are not voting. And because they’re not voting, the Democrats can’t win.
The people in my Lib town will vote Dem :-(
Ive heard a number of interviews with the guy who runs Trafalgar. The mainstream polling outfits still have their sample sets wrong. That’s why they were so far off in 16 and 20. Trafalgar has better methodology, hence their more accurate results. However he still says that there are “submerged republicans” they can’t pick up. He says add .5%-5% for the GOP candidate to the Trafalgar numbers, based in the particular race. It will be interesting to see on Wednesday. For now, Trafalgar has to be rated gold standard
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