Posted on 10/15/2018 7:33:55 AM PDT by LS
Just a few observations that I see few people out there making.
1. Keep in mind that virtually ALL absentee ballots that are arriving now were MAILED on or about the time of the Judge K hearings & almost certainly will reflect that outrage.
2. I am hearing rumblings---can't put much solid behind it---that DemoKKKrats are really, really getting worried.
At every level. In AZ, Enema has just imploded with one scandal after another, in NV Heller has built his lead, in ND, MO, TX, and TN, the Rs have settled into solid leads (and no, Betamale has NEVER, EVER been close to Ted Cruz---but thanks for building a bonfire out of that $38m).
I have heard, for example, in MN, that MANY of the races are very close. Can't say more. In VA, word is that KrazyKlownKaine is worried, is sending his office staff out to do lit drops and that a poll now has him just up 5 against a weak candidate in a blue state.
Callers are telling me they noticed a sharp change 2 weeks ago with the Kavanaugh stuff, and Richard Baris's polling showed a DRAMATIC virtually overnight shift of 4-10 points in various states.
Don't believe what you hear about OH being a big Brown lead. Guys on the ground tell me Renacci just down "a couple" and they think the Trump visits will put him over.
2. SO FAR, absentee voting in both FL and OH looks EXACTLY like the presidential election year of 2016. This would be huge, and would be indicative of the "red wave." THE FACT IS: if they aren't calling the House early, the chances are we have held. If you see we held FL26, 27, KY6, NC's two seats, all but one of NY, and OH, it's a pretty good chance the Ds can't find enough seats in the rest of the country. We should know fairly early.
3. MANY indicators show the Ds are getting a reality bath that they will lose huge in the Senate and won't take the House: first, there was an article in the Hill or one of the mouthpiece organs saying "We might not know on election night who wins the House." Why is that? If it's a "blue wave," we'd know immediately if three or four NY seats go Dem, if a FL seat goes Dem, if an NC seat goes Dem. But the fact is, there is now really only one NY seat at risk (Tenney) and she is in a red district; that we'll lose 3 in PA through redistricting, but may flip one in NH; that NJ may see three losses. After that, though, NC is safe, TX is safe, OH is safe, Rossi way up in WA, both FL26 and FL27 are looking like "holds"; Andy Barr is safe; Mike Bishop is safe in MI (but we may lose Trott's seat); and the guys in IL look safe. We may lose one in IA (Blum), lose McSally's seat in AZ possibly.
On the other hand, we are now looking to flip at least two in MN, one in AZ, and one in NV for a total of four seats looking good. But there are a good five more seats (including the NH seat) that could flip D-R.
Bottom line, I have Ds gaining a floor of 10 seats net, a ceiling of 15 seats net, short of control However, our floor appears to be a loss of about 10 but our ceiling could be a loss of only 4 seats net.
BTW, a leading D analyst did his board and it's close to mine, saying Rs hold by 8 seats.
4. Bad news: Looks like Gillum's Island is for real in FL, a combo of a high black turnout (also in GA gov race) and DeSantis being weak. For ex., Baris's polling showed a whopping 62% of Floridians said they would NEVER vote for a "socialist" yet DeSantis is unable to make that label stick to Gillum's Island. As of now, I think Scott wins the Senate, DeSantis the Gov.
Florida also has the hurricane issue, which is seriously affecting absentee voting (traditionally R). Now, in 2 weeks it is possible that these vagabonds manage to get to the polls, but with lives disrupted it's not highly likely. This will affect Panhandle votes (red) but ALSO ironically will hit Gillum's Island's home base of Tallahassee, hurting him as well.
5. John James has made up some ground in MI. Don't think it's enough. Likewise, Leah Vukmir in WI---which should have been a pickup---has stalled and is depending on Walker to carry her across. He will win, but not by enough to help her.
6. Hugin appears to be the real deal in Joisey, and Manchin is leading by only a point. These are genuine pickup possibilities. Once Trump is confident AZ, NV, MT, and IN are locked down, you'll see him in WV and NJ.
I actually wish that Scott Walker hadn’t run for a third term. I firmly believe no one should serve more than two terms in an executive position. If you can’t get it done in two terms you won’t get it done in three. Also, even the best will wear out their welcome. He should have stepped aside and let someone else run. That said, I hope he wins of course.
We have alot of NE flooding down here and that new tax laws
Help send more NE Dems .
I expect Walker to still win, but Vukmir was weak in the primary against Nicholson in areas where Trump excelled and a visit on her behalf into these areas really could make a difference.
Trump at least would have a shot at dragging her over the finish line...Walker (and I love what he’s done for WI) does not.
Its really disappointing to see.
Hopefully Vukmir surprises.
Any news as to how Cox is doing against Newscum?
Also, Trump scheduled to have a rally for Cox this month...should give a boost.
I also noted the sudden dearth of GA polls. FINALLY one came out this morning. Kemp+2.
Thanks!
Wack Job Rat Kyrsten in Arizona is dealing with Martha McSally in very limited ways:
(1) There are commercials which just call Martha McSally a liar who lies about everything. Lame.
(2) Kyrsten claims that Martha McSally wants to hurt people who need health insurance (lie), she’s trying to prevent people with pre-existing conditions from getting healthcare (lie), and she’s trying to cut Medicare benefits (another lie).
That’s all that Kyrsten and her (outside of Arizona) Rat operatives are fighting back with. Due to the recent scandals about her that broke last week, she’s no longer running her “I’m a reasonable moderate, fiercely independent” commercials. She’s been outed for the radical Feninazi Chuck Schumer-licker that she is.
I don’t know what Kyrsten’s poll numbers are this week, but McSally was ahead by 6 points before the scandals broke.
Minnesota GOP Senate candidate compared Michelle Obama to a chimp in Facebook post
“Peculiar that in the best, most expensive neighborhoods Brown signs far outnumber Rogers.”
Not peculiar at all. That’s where their base is.
I hope you’re wrong about McSally losing. While I don’t trust her to not be a RINO; she would still vote with the pubbies and Trump most the time.
The very last thing AZ needs is a communist enema senator.
Personally, I think the Republican comeback is partly due to these “progressive” candidates finally being looked at by the voters (now that summer is over). In Kentucky CD-6, the Democrats are running an abject leftist loon, Amy McGrath. Sure, she was a Marine Corps pilot. And she went around Kentucky telling everyone how centrist she is. Now, the voters are seeing ads about how she was up in Massachusetts calling herself the “most progressive person in Kentucky” and “You’re damn right I’m a feminist.” There’s a reason why the progressives have to hide their beliefs outside of pockets on the coasts....
Thanks, LS. Sounds like this may be an exciting election night, atypical of midterms.
If true, said person will lead a very lonely life; no cocktail party invites, and massive abuse from the rat masters.
“Peculiar that in the best, most expensive neighborhoods Brown signs far outnumber Rogers.
Not peculiar at all. That’s where their base is.”
It is disappointing though. I live in an upscale neighborhood and Beto signs are everywhere.
But it is a sign of the times. With Trump, the Rep base is now working class instead of the white collar class. The upside is, the working class vote wins presidential elections!
Good to hear, he must have a had a former Bush campaign manager to be running that bad of a campaign!
It looks like KS3 will be a loss. Polls are stale, but a new one will be out in a few days. KS2 could go either way, Watkins (R) is a rookie and making rookie mistakes. Otherwise, he would be an easy win.
If Trump held a rally in Fresno or Bakersfield in support of House candidates like Elizabeth Heng (CA-16), Kevin McCarthy* (CA-23), Devon Nunes* (CA-22), and David Valadao* (CA-21), he would certainly boost the chances of Heng flipping Democrat Jim Costa's district, while giving the farmers of the central valley something to rally about.
The CA-16 seems to be the only D district surrounded by R's in the central valley.
-PJ
Who is 3? Yoder? I thought he was ok.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.