Posted on 08/31/2007 5:41:48 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Fred Thompson has been acting like he has all the time in the world to get his campaign going, with his aides and advisers saying they wanted to get a first-class organization humming before the “Law & Order” actor steps out for his close-up.
One adviser, seeking to calm down an excitable reporter, even pointed out that “there will be two World Series” before the 2008 election.
But in fact Thompson – who plans to travel the country with his family in a luxury bus emblazoned with the words “Security, Unity, Prosperity” -- is in a race against time that even some of his core advisers admit he has a chance of losing.
Thompson had raised only a moderate amount of money – below his advisers’ expectations – when he finally filed his first financial statement with the Internal Revenue Service at the end of July.
The excuse was that donors were staying on the sidelines till he made it official.
Now Thompson needs the cash spigot to begin gushing as soon as he appears Thursday at Des Moines’ Polk County Convention Center. He needs to swiftly validate the premise of his campaign, which is that there’s pent-up demand among Republican donors and activists for some alternative to Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani.
So Thompson’s deadline is not Election Day 2008, or even the January nominating contests.
The make-or-break date for his campaign is Sept. 30 – the Federal Election Commission cut-off for the next financial report. That document, which must be filed by Oct. 15, will determine Thompson’s fate. If he looks weak, he is unlikely to get the money, endorsements and grass-roots support that he’ll need to pull off his Houdini act, insiders say.
It amounts to a three-week, do-or-die sprint, and even Thompson does not claim to be a sprinter.
Critics in both parties had suggested that Thompson might try to game the system by not formally launching till Oct. 1 in order to avoid the third-quarter disclosure requirement.
But a Thompson official tells Politico: “The Thompson committee will file a disclosure report with the FEC on Oct. 15 covering all money raised and spent through Sept. 30.”
'We're prepared'
Thompson’s challenge is all the greater because he’s dallied for so long that he won’t get a honeymoon.
His advisers are convinced the press will unleash a blizzard of skeptical and hostile coverage to punish him for taking a nontraditional route to his candidacy.
People close to the campaign say a critical question is whether it was really necessary to begin campaigning two years before the election.
“Look, history could be written, and we got in too late,” said one close Thompson adviser. “We’re prepared for that. Or history could be written and we blew the whistle on this two-year project, and we can do it shorter and faster, and be the guys that end this madness.”
Rep. Zach Wamp (R-Tenn.), who was among the leaders in the House to push Thompson into the race, said Thompson's announcement of an announcement Thursday will provide a needed spark.
"It allows us to go ahead and firm up all these commitments from people who have said, 'If he runs I'm with him,'" Wamp said in a telephone interview from Tennessee after getting off a conference call with Thompson supporters on Thursday.
Wamp, who took a turn firing up supporters on the call, dismissed questions that Thompson's wait had harmed his prospects, but acknowledged that some Republicans had held back this summer.
"[The delay] caused certain people in grass roots and fundraising to say, 'I want a commitment,'" he said. "Well, now a commitment has taken place."
The pressure's on
Still, Thompson’s late money start, and his seeming acknowledgment in an interview with Politico.com last weekend that his summer cash haul had been disappointing, puts intense pressure on him to shake the money tree ferociously in September.
Thompson will hold a fundraiser in Chattanooga on Sept. 10, but other events are in the early states have yet to materialize. Thompson won’t raise cash in Iowa and the chairmen of the New Hampshire and South Carolina GOP said they had yet to hear any word about fundraising in their states.
Thompson is still interviewing consultants and aides and does not yet have a fundraising infrastructure in the early primary states.
“There is nobody here to do it,” said South Carolina GOP Chairman Katon Dawson. “And a good fundraiser will cost you 10 grand a month.”
Thompson’s need to ramp up his money machine is urgent, Dawson said. “When you come in with $3.5 million, you’ve opened yourself up to get pounded,” he observed, referring to the amount of money Thompson raised in June.
But Dawson emphasized that Palmetto State GOP voters were still undecided on a presidential pick.
“Hillary just scares the hell out of them down here. ‘Who can beat her’ is the question I get asked at every gas pump. Who can throw the Hail Mary and wield the veto pen.”
Thompson will underscore his independence from the rest of the field by appearing next Wednesday on “The Tonight Show with Jay Leno” on the same night that the other GOP candidates are appearing on a Fox News debate moderated by Chris Wallace in New Hampshire.
On a conference call for reporters yesterday, Thompson political director Randy Enwright sketched the rest of the roll-out plans, which include “a grass-roots-oriented tour that will go to Iowa and New Hampshire and South Carolina.
“There will be a second tour that will be the tail end of next week, the 13th through the 15th. We’ll spend several days in Florida and end up in Tennessee for a welcome home party for the senator in his hometown of Lawrenceburg, Tenn., on the 15th.”
Jim Mills, the spokesman for Friends of Fred Thompson, said the organization has “great confidence that once the American people truly get to know Fred Thompson, they will be quite impressed with his life story and his intellect and his passion, and his seriousness for solving some of the big problems.
“This is a mature adult who has a sense of humor and can be self-effacing and truly loves to mix it up with real people,” Mills said. “Fred Thompson is going to surprise some people how engaged he is on some very serious issues.”
Say, when is Hunter going to start up his campaign?
Thanks for the link, Some of Thompson Votes:
Voted YES on permanent normal trade relations with China. (Sep 2000)
Voted YES on funding for National Endowment for the Arts. (Aug 1999)
Voted YES on favoring 1997 McCain-Feingold overhaul of campaign finance. (Oct 1997)
Voted YES on allowing another round of military base closures. (May 1999)
Voted YES on cutting nuclear weapons below START levels. (May 1999)
Voted YES on allowing more foreign workers into the US for farm work. (Jul 1998)
Voted YES on visas for skilled workers. (May 1998)
Voted YES on allowing all necessary force in Kosovo. (May 1999)
You’ve got to admit that running for office 24/7 beats the hell out of working 9 to 5.
I thought you were working on a sermon?
“You need PEOPLE ON THE GROUND, not on some damn website. You need people in every county: buildings, phones, organizers, callers, walkers, bumperstickers, the whole works. This organization needed to be in place six months ago-—EVEN IF Fred didn’t announce until Labor Day. You absolutely cannot build an organization overnight. Most of the good people-—the pros-—are gone, and even if not, it takes months to get an operation humming.”
But supposedly they are going with a “modern,” cyber-based campaign. Less travel, more youtube messages, etc.
Not all that much convinced it will work. I have a hunch that people who read and post on FR are very much NOT representative of voters. FR people spend much more time on the web on politics.
You’re like a gun loaded with blanks—and your posts are just about that effective.
She managed to make Obama look like an inexperienced, naive idiot in at least one debate by attacking him directly and mercilessly. She can think on her feet, she’s always the best prepared, and she’s determined. She’s got her organization in place and the fundraisers lined up. Underestimate her at your peril.
the golf thread???
Which is precisely what many, many people are doing. In fact, Fred's "testing the waters" campaign has dried up donations to the other candidates.
Yeah, it was just starting to get good.
impressive
or maybe not
It was those lawyers’ fault. They all had to go work, so I figured I would too. But, my brain fries, and I come to Free Republic (believe it or not) to regroup my thoughts and relax.
Pretty dumb, huh?
:>)
Can’t make up your mind. Just like Fred.
Well, lobbyists are more effective if they’re genial, even charming.
Fred has time but it will be nice to see him officially in the race.
Here's the national polling data through the end of Aug. 2007.
Thompson Hunter Newsweek 22 1 Cook 14 2 USA 19 1 CNN 19 - ARG 16 1 Quinnipiac 12 1 Gallup 19 2 Fox 14 - Diageo/Hotline 17 1Source: PollingReport.com
Now with the Super Tuesday primaries five months and one week away I'd say that Hunter's campaign is not going to be started. It's over in other words. Just my opinion of course.
Any Democrat making comments about Abramoff better be careful, because their Senate Leader did quite a bit of dealing with him.
You posted those poll numbers earlier -- nice find.
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