Posted on 12/24/2007 8:48:50 PM PST by Fred
Republicans
Mitt Romney may be in terrific shape. Or he might be on the verge of collapsing. His strategy hinges on breakout showings in Iowa and New Hampshire, and either state could go either way for the former Massachusetts governor.
In Iowa, he trails Mike Huckabee, but Huckabee’s surge in the state may have peaked, and Romney is within striking distance. Now, he’s shredding Huckabee on the stump, over the air, and in the mail. Because Huckabee is now expected to win Iowa, Romney may be in position to declare victory with a strong second place showing – and he might still win the state.
He’ll probably need some momentum from Iowa to help in New Hampshire, where his once-overpowering lead has dwindled to three points, with John McCain rising from the dead. The risk for Romney is that bad news from Iowa might bleed into New Hampshire; and if he’s seen as the loser in the first two states, he stands to fade from viability in the next states. But a strong showing in Iowa followed by a solid win in New Hampshire would put him in good shape.
This is why, depending on whom you ask, Romney is either the best shot on the G.O.P. board, or his campaign’s strategy is about to blow up in its face.
Huckabee’s game plan also hinges on Iowa, but not so much New Hampshire. He now has to win Iowa, given his elevated expectations there, but his emphasis on his Christian background isn’t catching on in New Hampshire (just as Pat Robertson fared poorly there in 1988). But Huckabee could get an assist in New Hampshire from McCain, if he can upset Romney there – an outcome that could marginalize Romney, and thus remove a potent obstacle from Huckabee’s path to the nomination.
The good news for Huckabee: He’s still well-positioned in Iowa, fortified by the state’s large bloc of Christian conservatives. Plus, the rise in New Hampshire of McCain, with his celebrated maverick streak, draws attention to Romney’s pandering – a potentially devastating contrast for Romney in such an independent-minded state.
The bad news: His emergence has prompted the inevitable backlash, evident in amped up attacks from his opponents and intense media scrutiny. Has the revelation of his extreme social rhetoric in the not-so-distant past undermined his appeal to moderates and independents? And has his Arkansas record (on taxes, spending, and commutations) made him anathema to the conservative base in the same way McCain was in 2000?
It is actually growing easier by the day to paint a McCain nomination scenario. He has largely written off Iowa, and yet his poll numbers have shown life there in the last two weeks. A third place finish is not implausible. Follow that up with a New Hampshire victory (which would probably require a Romney loss in Iowa), and McCain may find himself in what amounts to a one-on-one race with Huckabee, with Romney fatally wounded and Rudy Giuliani fading out. Suddenly, it would be McCain – and not Giuliani – who would be the big favorite in all of those giant February 5 primary states.
As for Giuliani, the signs are very bad indeed. He talks of jump-starting his campaign with a win in Florida, and then gobbling up the February 5 states. But that strategy requires that he demonstrate viability (at the very least) in the early states – and that no other candidate (like McCain, say) builds the kind of momentum that could eat into Giuliani’s soft support in the later states. Already, his Florida advantage is declining, and it will probably get worse if he’s humbled in Iowa and New Hampshire. The best scenario for Rudy now is some kind of split verdict in the early states, one that somehow prevents any of the candidates from breaking out before February 5.
Bingo. I’ve said for most of this past year now that (minus Fred), it looks like a Felliniesque sideshow. A grotesque caricature of what a primary field for the GOP Presidential nomination should look like. When Fred entered, it was like the refreshing cool breeze and relief you feel when the grown-up arrives to take control of the situation.
I’m not supporting any of em. I’ll see who’s left when the NJ primary comes up and make my decision then. None of them gets a red cent from me, though. They’re all pikers. But whichever one wins will get my vote in the general against the socialist party.
Boy, that sounds like the definition of second tier.
With 50% of the voters expressing either "unknown" or enough uncertainty about their 1st choice to change their minds, it means a lot more than that.
Don't forget the Iowa is a caucus state, which basically allows folks to convince each other as the votes are happening -- with the support for all candidates across the board being as soft as it currently is, almost nothing should be considered unlikely as a result.
Well fine. Fred can cling to “anything is possible”, but right now it doesn’t look good. Why isn’t he a first choice?
Because of people like you who decide that the current polls are the only thing that matters? Especially from FOX, who as a network is pulling so hard for Giuliani that they ought to declare themselves an "in-kind contribution" to his campaign?
Fact is, he's out there in Iowa campaigning hard. The pre-Christmas numbers from reliable sources show that he's making string gains. He's building momentum up to the crucial day -- the day when votes are cast.
My prediction is that Huckabee does far worse than expected and Thompson does far better than expected. He doesn't have to place first in Iowa to have a big "win" there.
Well, congrats. Because if Fred (or Hunter) ain’t the nominee, I’m not voting for the Socialist RINO in the general, so my vote will cancel out yours. This party should and will die without a Conservative at the helm. You might take a look at your own state party to see what has happened with liberals at the helm. You couldn’t even make gains in the legislature against the worst 2 rodent Governors in the modern era (and I ain’t even counting Flim-Flam Florio, who looks like Charles Edison by comparison to McGreevey/Corzine). Quite telling.
That would be surpassing either 1932 or 1992. We have yet to recover from either. I’m hoping sanity prevails and our GOP primary voters figure out there’s only one hope and that’s Fred.
Thank you !
Well, we can save that debate for another day. For me it's automatic. I vote against the socialist party. I'm no fan of GWB and didn't "support" him either, but I am quite certain we got better judges than we'd have had with a DEM, better tax policy, and quite a few other improvements. We owed it to the troops to defeat John Kerry.
I am quite certain the GOP nominee will be superior to Clinton, Obama, or Edwards, as well. As for me and my home state, my congressman, Scott Garrett, has a 100% ACU rating. How's yours?
just to clarify, i did vote for GWB in 04. Didn’t send money, though.
No, polls aren’t the only thing that matters. But they do matter. And momentum matters. We’ll see what happens. I’m just commenting on the race, and right now, Fred’s sucking wind. My prediction is Huckabee wins. Fred in 4th at 11% or so. Fred goes on to not place in NH (single digits), at which point he disappears completely from nat’l coverage. Then he goes on to not show in MI, and by South Carolina he’s done. I have no idea who we’re getting stuck with, but I doubt it’s Freddy.
Given what these of this generation has sought to emulate since 1932, deception has been the biggest seller. Thus far I am willing to vote for Fred, however, if he climbs into McCain's chariot I won't be voting for either of them.
That might be as soon as February if things go bad.
"For me it's automatic."
You remind me of me a decade ago.
"I vote against the socialist party."
As I said, we shall see by February. We may have two Socialist parties come November. There's only room for one. Conservatives ain't turning out for the echo party.
"I'm no fan of GWB and didn't "support" him either, but I am quite certain we got better judges than we'd have had with a DEM, better tax policy, and quite a few other improvements. We owed it to the troops to defeat John Kerry."
Dubya could at least claim with a straight face to have some Conservative principles and accomplishments. Rudy McRombee can't claim jacksquat.
"I am quite certain the GOP nominee will be superior to Clinton, Obama, or Edwards, as well."
You're about to be in for a shock if it ain't Fred.
"As for me and my home state, my congressman, Scott Garrett, has a 100% ACU rating. How's yours?"
You're damn lucky to have Garrett. My Congressional district hasn't sent a Republican to Washington since U.S. Grant's reelection in 1872. It isn't likely to in the forseeable future. My vote only counts in the Presidential. And given your state's leanings, my vote is more important than yours and will decide whether this nation elects another Republican. It isn't particularly a fan of liberal RINOs, and the one that ran for the Senate barely got elected last year. Put up the likes of Giuliani or Joe Isuzu Romney, and Hillary will carry my state, and I won't do a damn thing to stop it from happening. I detest her, but not enough to put a Socialist RINO in the WH. That'd make me no better than the BDS supporters on the left, anybody but Hillary. Sorry, but Hillary's honest about being a leftist and she stays on her side of the fence. I don't like Socialists crapping in my yard, and Rudy McRombee has already laid a gigantic turd on my front porch.
Um, that's been the case for most of the past several months already. He's not even participating actively in NH at this point, so if he does "poorly" there, who cares ? That's not a surprise.
Fred won’t be serving as McCain’s VP, that’s not what he’s in it for.
Anyway, for me, the general is a choice between two candidates. I don't care about the party. That's their problem. Once the general comes, I as a citizen have a choice between two candidates, and I believe it's my duty to make a choice. I believe if for no other reason, I owe it to our armed forces to participate in choosing the CiC.
Fred doing poorly anywhere is not a surprise at this point. I’m not saying it’s a surprise. I’m saying it will happen. It means even less coverage for Fred. Whatever the opposite of inevitability is, that will be Fred by the time SC rolls around.
The major problem - one of the major problems, for there are several - one of the many major problems with governing people is that of whom you get to do it; or rather or who manages to get people to let them do it to them To summarize: it is a well-known fact that those people who must WANT to rule people are, ipso facto, those least suited to do it. To summarize the summary: anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job. To summarize the summary of the summary: people are a problem.
- Douglas Adams - Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy
As I’ve stated many times, I’m no longer a mind-numbed GOP robot. This party must stand for something in direct opposition to the Democrats, the party of original sin that should’ve been outlawed after the Civil War. If it decides to embrace that twisted and evil Socialist party and become Socialist-lite, I have no use for it, and it can kiss my ass before I ever vote for it. And I can tell you millions of Conservatives will say exactly the same. Way too many damn liberals in this party already that don’t want the likes of Scott Garrett directing the agenda, nevermind that it is a winning one when it’s actually tried. If it wasn’t, why do so many rodents try to pretend they’re Conservatives to get votes ?
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