Posted on 03/03/2008 8:21:42 AM PST by Momaw Nadon
According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2008 Presidential Election.
If the traders are correct, the Republican Presidential candidate would receive 245 Electoral Votes and the Democratic Presidential candidate would receive 293 Electoral Votes.
If the weighted probabilities of the Republican Presidential candidate winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then the Republican Presidential candidate should get 234.54 Electoral Votes.
270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.
Opinions and commentary are welcome.
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/25/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/18/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/11/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/4/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/7/2008
cure cards = cue cards
I still think w/McCain on the GOP ticket, Ohio has a better than 26% chance of going GOP. McCain is oddly popular in Ohio.
26% chance of the gop winning ohio? i dont think so.
Without a Dem clear outcome on candidate this is a stretch.
Not sure Obama would win PA
According to this even a Rep victory in Ohio won’t turn the trick. I’m a little surprised that Intrade lists Ohio as firmly in the Dem camp and not closer to a toss up.
Looks like McCain will have to pull Colorado or Ohio to get the win. He can rip the Colorado Governor for ignoring immigration laws which might serve him well there but he’s also running on thin ice when it come to him preaching to anyone about immigration.
Polls in NJ over the weekend showed McCain even with Obama.
I don’t know if this will hold.
lol. I thought it was his new health insurance plan.
I’ve seen polls in NJ before showing Rep candidates competitive and there is no relation to the actual results come election day.
(OH or PA) + (CO or NM)
I think its rather premature to attempt to assess these results at this point.
I don’t believe McCain has enough delegates to nominate right now.
Its uncertain whether Hillary will pull a miracle and keep Obama from getting enough of the Dems electoral or superdelegate votes.
If you don’t know for certain who is running in either paryt, how can you do this?
Also, what about Ralph Nader (sarcasm)?
I guarantee you, if Hillary is the nominee for the D’s... PA will not go to the Dems. She is hated in this state and I mean hated, and those that hate her the most are lifelong democratic women... she will not win this state.
Appears to me that the following states will be needed: Iowa, Colorado, Minnesota or Wisconsin. Missouri has tipped into the Republican column. Not out of reach.
These states that are in the Dem win column are the ones we need to focus on:
Iowa
Minnesota
New Mexico
Ohio
Pennsylvanio
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