Posted on 03/24/2008 8:09:55 AM PDT by Momaw Nadon
According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2008 Presidential Election.
If the traders are correct, John McCain would receive 245 Electoral Votes and the Democratic Presidential candidate would receive 293 Electoral Votes.
If the weighted probabilities of John McCain winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then John McCain should get 249.73 Electoral Votes.
270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.
Opinions and commentary are welcome.
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/17/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/10/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/3/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/25/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/18/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/11/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/4/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/7/2008
I’d say we need to work on Ohio and Colorado. For what it’s worth, it’s hard to see Obama winning those two states, but who knows?
Bottom line, it doesn't look good. In addition we have a very weak candidate. I just heard the first mention of the "Keating 5" this morning on Fox. It's only going to be a couple months before age starts getting mentioned and how the office of the Pres. is so tough and ages people.
McCain has been so busy courting the liberals the conservative base has no reason to get geared up other than who the Rat candidates are.
The rats lead is dwindling. It was over 3 hundred at one time. Neither of these rat buffoons can beat the Mac
Not since Herbert Hoover has a candidate been swept in the South and still won the White House.
It depends on the Dem nominee. If it is Obama, give Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan to McCain.
Why?
The best hope we have is if HRC is the candidate. The Rats will lose the black base at least for this election. If BHO is the candidate you can count on the Pubs losing the 8-12% of the black vote it gets in addition to losing the majority of the 40-50% of the Hispanic vote it gets regardless of who the Rats put up.
If we are hoping that inside the voting booth people will cross over because BHO is so radical, or Black, it's a mistake. The media will be playing up the historic nature of his candidacy and how not voting for him will "reflect old thinking".
Never underestimate the Liberal lunatics in Colorado.
Obama won the caucuses here:-(
AR is back to being pink. I thought they had given that to the Dems at one time.
I think unless McCain totally blows it he should carry MO and maybe be able to keep CO and OH from going over to the bad guys.
I see they have NH in the Demo column too but wasn’t McCain leading over both of them in at least one recent poll? For better or worse he seems well liked there, so at least he would have a shot.
I don't think so. It will tighten and once the Rats make their pick and begin stressing how everything will be okay in the WOT it will widen again.
What does McCain have that the Rats can't find in their own candidate? He is going to get eaten alive in the debates, especially if it is BHO. He doesn't really offer a contrast to the Rats other than in the WOT.
Why?
On Sunday, the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral College Votes. Republicans are favored in states with 189 Votes (see recent daily results). New polling from Georgia and Arkansas had no impact on the projections.
Election 2008: Electoral College Update
Sunday, March 23, 2008
This has Mc Cain matched up with “Democrat” (unnamed). Recnt polls show Mc Cain leading Obama in Ohio and PA, yet this scorecard gives those states to “Democrat”. This isn’t going top mean much until Dem. nominee is established.
On Fox News Sunday, it sounded like Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell was concerned that Obama might not hold New Jersey, either.
Pennsylvania and Ohio are looking to be the “key states” this time around.
Flip them both to McCain, and he wins.
This is assuming nothing else changes. But then again, with Obama in the race, some “assumed blue” states might come into play. We’ll have to wait and see.
- John
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