2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/31/2008

InTrade ^ | Monday, March 31, 2008 | Momaw Nadon

[Momaw Nadon]

Intrade.com is a futures market in which people bet on the outcomes of various things such as the results of elections.

According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2008 Presidential Election.

If the traders are correct, John McCain would receive 240 Electoral Votes and the Democratic Presidential candidate would receive 298 Electoral Votes.

If the weighted probabilities of John McCain winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then John McCain should get 252.22 Electoral Votes.

270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.

Opinions and commentary are welcome.

[Momaw Nadon]

Previous projections:

2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/24/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/17/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/10/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/3/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/25/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/18/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/11/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/4/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/7/2008

[Momaw Nadon]

[Momaw Nadon]

If you want on (or off) of the weekly InTrade Projected Presidential Electoral Vote ping list, please let me know via FREEPmail.

[KentTrappedInLiberalSeattle]

So long as the voters in (*yeccchhh*) Seattle continue to disproportionately determine how the state’s electoral votes are allotted, every four years: Washington, I solemnly guarantee you, will never EVER go for Juan over The Obamessiah.

[DM1]

looks like it is trending McCains way
according to this thing if he held all the states indicated here and carried a few others he may actually win this thing

[SmithL]

Put me on your list, please.

Republicans never do well against generic Democrats. Generic Democrats never make it onto the ballot.

[amigatec]

Add me as well.

[Ciexyz]

PA, trending hopelessly blue.

[skully]

For what it's worth; I've been keeping track based on polling, and project McCain winning 327 to 211. That's with Obama being the nominee. I didn't bother with Hillary, cuz I don't think she'll get the nod. I assigned the state to whoever was leading in aggregate polling; which there's not much data for at this point. Many states are toss ups still, so your numbers seem feasible. If I had to put a percentage on a McCain Obama match up...I put McCain at about a 55% chance to win.

[EDINVA]

pretty much every state has that situation where major metro area(s) dominate(s) the rest of the state, i.e., NY/CA/NV/IL/MI for starts.

[TomGuy]

This chart shows why the Dems would like to get rid of the Electoral College and rely on the popular vote.

50 Largest Cities		2005 Est Pop		Dem Cities	GOP Cities
New York	N.Y.	8,143,197		8,143,197
Los Angeles	Calif.	3,844,829		3,844,829
Chicago	Ill.	2,842,518		2,842,518
Houston	Tex.	2,016,582			2,016,582
Philadelphia	Pa.	1,463,281		1,463,281
Phoenix	Ariz.	1,461,575			1,461,575
San Antonio	Tex.	1,256,509			1,256,509
San Diego	Calif.	1,255,540		1,255,540
Dallas	Tex.	1,213,825			1,213,825
San Jose	Calif.	912,332		912,332
Detroit	Mich.	886,671		886,671
Indianapolis	Ind.	784,118			784,118
Jacksonville	Fla.	782,623			782,623
San Francisco	Calif.	739,426		739,426
Columbus	Ohio	730,657		730,657
Austin	Tex.	690,252			690,252
Memphis	Tenn.	672,277			672,277
Baltimore	Md.	635,815		635,815
Fort Worth	Tex.	624,067			624,067
Charlotte	N.C.	610,949			610,949
El Paso	Tex.	598,590			598,590
Milwaukee	Wis.	578,887		578,887
Seattle	Wash.	573,911		573,911
Boston	Mass.	559,034		559,034
Denver	Colo.	557,917		557,917
Louisville-Jefferson County	Ky.1	556,429			556,429
WashingtonDC
Nashville-Davidson	Tenn.2	549,110			549,110
Las Vegas	Nev.	545,147		545,147
Portland	Ore.	533,427		533,427
Oklahoma City	Okla.	531,324			531,324
Tucson	Ariz.	515,526			515,526
Albuquerque	N.M.	494,236		494,236
Long Beach	Calif.	474,014		474,014
Atlanta	Ga.	470,688			470,688
Fresno	Calif.	461,116		461,116
Sacramento	Calif.	456,441		456,441
New Orleans	La.	454,863			454,863
Cleveland	Ohio	452,208		452,208
Kansas City	Mo.	444,965			444,965
Mesa	Ariz.	442,780			442,780
Virginia Beach	Va.	438,415			438,415
Omaha	Nebr.	414,521			414,521
Oakland	Calif.	395,274		395,274
Miami	Fla.	386,417			386,417
Tulsa	Okla.	382,457			382,457
Honolulu	HI	377,379		377,379
Minneapolis	Minn.	372,811		372,811
Colorado Springs	Colo.	369,815		369,815
Arlington	Tex.	362,805			362,805
Total population		45,317,550		28,655,883	16,661,667

[LiveFree99]

PA has been going blue for a while now. Looks like Ohio is going that way, too. If the Rats win Ohio in November then McCain loses.

[Momaw Nadon]

[KentTrappedInLiberalSeattle]

pretty much every state has that situation where major metro area(s) dominate(s) the rest of the state, i.e., NY/CA/NV/IL/MI for starts.

Of course they do; nor have I ever argued otherwise. The unvarnished fact remains, however: Seattle will always, ALWAYS tack towards the left-most candidate, in any given election... and, as Seattle goes, so too (sadly) does the rest of the state, electorally.

Them's the facts, like 'em or otherwise (amd I, plainly, do not).

[KentTrappedInLiberalSeattle]

Looks like Ohio is going that way, too.

Given all the Republican-related scandals in that state over the past few years -- all still distressingly fresh, doubtless, in the minds of the "swing" voters therein -- I'd be stunned and then some were ANY Republican nominee for the presidency to end up carrying Ohio in '08, personally... although I'm certainly willing to be convinced otherwise, should any Ohio FReepers care to weigh in to that effect.

[LiveFree99]

Add in the fact that the drive-by media will be constantly wailing about the “horrible” economy and you get an almost no-win scenario for McCain. A lot can still happen until November, but it sure isn’t looking good.

[EDINVA]

hey, don’t complain to ME ... I’m (originally) from New York .. you think Seattle is bad? ha!!!

But .... what happened in ‘84 ??? Reagan carried all but Mondale’s home state. How did RWR capture the electoral votes of places like NY/CA/WA, etc ? Were we that different a people then? Reagan was as bashed in the press in those days as W is now. He was portrayed as a heartless, OLD, gun-slinger who’d bring us to the brink of nuclear war. Yet, he won overwhelmingly. I’d love to figure out when/how we went so far off-track and became so divided.

[GunRunner]

McCain will take Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Ohio. Possibly Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Michigan. Maybe New Mexico.

Once you have Obama's name in there instead of "generic Democrat", you'll see this flip to McCain 285, Obama 253.

[KentTrappedInLiberalSeattle]

But .... what happened in ‘84 ??? Reagan carried all but Mondale’s home state. How did RWR capture the electoral votes of places like NY/CA/WA, etc ?

Reader's Digest condensed answer: this state was a vastly, almost inconceivably different sort of place a quarter-century ago, than it is today -- long, looonnnnnnnnnng before countless unwashed, sandaled, patchouli-drenched hordes of liberals from CA, OR and (now that you mention it) NY descended upon us, en masse, after Seattle's being hailed nationwide, back in the '80s, as "The Most Liveable City In the U.S.!" (Grrrrrrrrr.)

It's still quite the sore spot with a great many of us hereabouts, quite frankly... and for obvious reasons. My apologies if I sounded snappish. ;)