Posted on 09/22/2010 6:29:02 PM PDT by rabscuttle385
Well Gov. Palin may have three winner in the three primary states mentioned. It would put those three in one h*ll of a position if they didn’t help Gov. Palin.
If you break it down even more I think Gov. Palin will have two allies in Iowa, one in NH and two in SC. That is a pretty good foundation to work from.
The other thing is the primary format may be different this time around with propotional voting for the first few states. Then they head West and Gov. Palin is rather strong out there.
If Palin wins NH somehow, the race is over before we even get to SC; but I don't think it's likely. Recent polls had her finishing second in NH, though, which would be a nightmare scenario for Romney going into SC.
If Palin wins SC, she will become a 60/40 favorite to beat Mitt. FL will be truly up-for-grabs at that point, and Mitt will have to suffer through huge wins for Palin in TX and most of the South. He'll see some trickle from UT and maybe MI and WI, but a SC win will be a big stepping-stone for Palin. It will be hard for Mitt to overcome.
That being said, Mitt will have two die-hard allies in SC in Lindsey Graham and Jim DeMint, plus he's trying to romance Nikki Haley into at least staying neutral.
I give the nomination odds like this for now:
Mitt: 50% chance,
Palin 40% chance,
Other 10% chance.
“The pivotal point of the 2012 GOP race will be SC, the first primary state that will really be in question.”
Which is but another reason I’d love to see DeMint toss his hat in. He’d be entirely fresh and has had a strong voice of leadership in the Senate—one without trepidation.
In some ways, he might be more useful in the Senate. That said, he’s really got the leadership qualities and the vision we’d be after.
That's how is see it.
You’re leaving Wyoming out of this.
Granted, it’s not a big state, but I’d argue it’s the most conservative state in the nation.
It’s also not one of these balogna open primary states.
Trust me, 1996 with "The Old Lion" Bob Dole was pretty shabby. You knew he was toast by Labor Day.
Beware of anyone who starts every sentence with "my friend"
To my shame, I volunteered to campaign for him, I was so desperate to see Bill Clinton defeated. It was very demoralizing.
We'll see a replay.
His people were doing that to Sarah when she was his running mate!
McCain will outdo Rove on O'Donnell if Sarah runs.
I can't stand the Benedict Arnold!
If he does that, it will only redound to the negative to him, and whichever candidate he does support. Sarah supported McCain, out of a sense of loyalty, and if he doesn't return that favor, he will look like a real horse's a$$.
THANKS. I still say they should vote him out. We’ll be better off and we may win other seats that seem unwinnable now. I’m always for doing the right thing and the chips fall into the right place.
He’s going to be the one to manipulate Palin into dropping out of the race for the sake of party unity behind Mittens. He is a backstabber.
Did anybody read the article? Palin was mention along with others that may run.
McCain was never asked a question about Palin.
He talked about where you should campaign first.
Who ever posted this is a trouble maker and a loon.
You could be right. It's what McCain does best. I hope to hell Sarah is such an overwhelming favorite by then that it won't matter.
BTW, knowing McCain's ego, I would not totally rule him out from making another run, even if only a stalking horse or judas goat.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.