Posted on 02/28/2016 9:33:52 AM PST by Jeff Head
This thread is about the 2016 Presdidentail Primary Data I have accumulated to date. I have been tracking it since September 1st, and am now set up to track specifically by the vote, and not including non-viote polls any longer.
We will let the vote itself tell us what we need to know. Here's the table with the raw numbers:
I have established four charts for the GOP and four for the DNC. They incvlude the following for each:
-State by State percentage of the Vote
-Overall average fo the total Vote
-Cumulative Vote Mumbers
-Cumulative Delegate Count (including Super Delegates for the DNC)
Here are the GOP Presidnetial Primary Charts:
Here are the GOP Presidnetial Primary Charts:
The overall trends are clear.
There are three major primary dates here in March and as the initial data shows, I will be tracking the vote through those three dates.
I believe by the end of March we will either have both nominees determined, or the trends will make it clear.
Of particular interests is how Cruz and Rubio do in their home states. Without strong wins in their home states, I do not believe either has any chance of being able to stop Trump from getting the nomination.
If they do win strong in their home states...and right now it looks like Cruz may win by 10% in TX, and it looks bad for Rubio in FL right now...then they will also each have to pick up several other wins over the next three weeks. in order to solidify anyy chance they have of thwarting Trump.
See: How Cruz and Rubio are doing in their Home States.
We shall see.
bkmk
Ping
I only found one site that gave something other than “et.” so I went with that on the IA Dem vote. I figured those were probably individual precincts or voting delegates or something.
If I could find an actual vote count...I would list it and change those charts and the underlying data.
Let me know if you find such a sit.
Also, I do not always list every singe state/territory voting on the dates...just the most consequential.
Hehehe...who knows? I tried to take into account current polls, tends, and the delegate threshold percentages for each vote. Monday could change things, as well as the actual voting day on Tuesday:
It’s going to be interesting to see how much the Sessions endorsement reverberates over the next two days.
Trump wins all but TX; most by 10; but my only waffle is AR. I have seen polls with Cruz ahead. I think, like TX, AR is a must win for Cruz because of Rule 40 (a candidate must win a majority of 8 state delegations).
I would give him an outside chance at MN and WY as well.
Cruz in MN? No way. Rubes led that last couple of polls, I think.
Yeoman’s work, Jeff. Bravo zulu and good numbers to you, sir.
I got the exact same polling call/questions, all seemed designed to be “what about Rubio”? Like would this or that circumstance make me more/less inclined to vote for Rubio instead. My every answer was no, and I chose Kasich too, in the one question there was no other out for.
I’m in Missouri - are you? I’ve seen nothing about poll results here. That makes me antsy.
“I’m in Missouri - are you?”
Louisiana. Has to be the same poll.
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