Super Tuesday Results & GOP Analysis

JEFFHEAD.COM ^ | March 2, 2016 | Jeff Head

[Jeff Head]

2016 Super Tuesday Results and GOP Presidential Analysis

Now that Super Tuesday is over and tabulated, there are some clear trends setting in.

Here is a table of data I am using to see the trends, and comment on the data:

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Going into Super Tuesday, some very definite trends had already been established in the GOP Presidential race. Bacisally it was the very steep trend line of Donad Trump in both the cumulative vote and the cumulative delgates from the first four primary contests, the last three of which he had won. Here's how they looked:

GOP Cumulative Vote and Delegates prior to Super Yeusday

Clearly without a significant change or alteration to those trend lines, the race was going to over very soon. Super Tuesday, with its eleven states, would allow for either a continuation of those trends, or for the opportunity to see some alteration of them. Quite frankly, going in, most people believe that the trends would conitunre and be punctuated, with perhaps Ted Cruz winning Texas, but Trump perhaps winning all of the others.

Particularly since the GOP primaries were producing so much excitment and voter turmnout. The GOP primaries setting recrds to that point almost across the board. For the DNC...not so much. In fact, far less so in terms of thgeir numbers.

Now, in looking at the data as a result of Super Tuesday, of the almost 16 million people that have voted altogether in the first 15 contests, 60% have voted in the GOP elections, 40% in the DNC. The trend for voter turnout with the GOP has continued. This equates to right around 9.5 million GOP voters and 5.5 million DNC voters to date.

For the GOP, Trump is the clear front runner. He has now won 10 contests. Cruz has won four (IA, TX, OK, AK), and Rubio has one one (MN). This has resulted in an intersting impact on total votes and total delgates.

Trump has accumuilated 34.42% of the total popular vote. Cruz is at 29.19%, Rubio at 22.49% and Carson and Kasich both between 6% and 7%. If the race suddenly became a two man race right now, it is likely that it would tighten up considerably.

GOP Polpular Vote Percentages

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when you look at the trends, super Tuesday blunted what to that point was a steep rise in Trumps cummulative vote and delegate count. The Cruz wins, particularly the large win in Texas which netted him a large popular vote and large delegate count, along with his victories in Oklahaom and Alaska, helped in that regard. Also, the overall proportionate nature of the race helped. Although Trump won seven contests...a couple of those were really close, and there were four other he lost. So the steep trend he was experiencing after three straight wins in NH, SC, and NV, was flattened out somewhat.

GOP Cumulative Popular Vote

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The same holds for GOP delegates.

Right now Trump has accumulated 351 delegates, with Cruz following at 224, Rubio at 112, Kasich at 27, and Carson at 7. Earlier candidates amassed 7 delegates before they dropped out.

super Tuesday served to have an impact on overall delegates like it did on overall popular vote.. Whereas before Super Tuesday...with Trump getting those three straight wins, and in taking all 50 delgates in South Caroline...Trumps trend line was very steep. With Super Tuesday and four losses, and two others very close, and partiulcarly with the large delegate count in Texas that went to Cruz, that trend also line flattened out.

GOP Cumulative Delgate Count

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Again, if the race became a two-man race, the delegate count would also likley be very close at this stage. Probably with Trump ahead something like 400 against 320 or so.

As it is, here are vote percentages from all fifteen races, from Iowa through Super Tuesday.

GOP State by State Vote Percentages

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And now for a few word about each candidate.

TED CRUZ:
Cruz actually performed well on super Tuesday...particularly given the circumstances leading up to the vote. When you compare it to his very early aspirations, before Donald Trump took such complete control of the race, Cruz felt he was going to have a huge Super Tuesday and win seven or eight contests himself. But after the Trump phenomenon took hold, that had already been scaled back.

Going into Tuesday, many felt he would win TX all right, but they thought it would be by less than 10 poimts. He ended up winning by 17.5% which was a very good night for him in Texas. His home state gave him one and a quarter million votes, the largest vote count for any single state so far for any candidate, GOP or DNC. In addition, when split up according to the TX primary rules, he will have gotten something like 95 delegates from his home state. But cruz also won Oklahoma and Alasksa. This means he now has four first place finishes, and a foundation from which to proceed.

MARCO RUBIO:
As it stands, it looks like Rubio is bound and determined to hold on and fight even past Florida, which he almost surely will lose now by a large percentage.

Rubio did win in Minnesota, which now means he has a single victory to his name out of fifteen contests. He also came within 2-3 points in Virginia, which was better than expected. Despite this, it seems pretty clear, that should he lose bFlorida, his home state, on MArc h 15th, that his candidacy will be finished in terms of any hope whatsoever for the nomination.

He has cvowed to continue nonetheless...but we shall see what happens after March 15th.

JOHN KASICH:
Kasich appears set to hold out until the Ohio vote on March 8th. At this point it appears that he will lose there. If he does, he may very well drop out soon after. He did do well on Super Tuesday in terms of expectations. Kasich actually came in 2nd in Vermont and in Massechusetts. IN fact in VT, he came very close to winning that contest.

But without a sinfgle win, and should he lose Ohio (which seems clear), he will have very little to go on. BEN CARSON:
Carson is likely to get out of the race soon. He has already indicated that he will not be at the debate on Thursday night, MArch 3rd. it seems clear that an announcement cannot be far off.

Ben Carson is a very good, honest man who loves this country and has experienced the American dream by relying on the fundamental American values that can lead to that dream. Hard work, faith in God, honesty, integrity, and developing his God-given talents. He is an exceptional American, but his campaign is simply not resonating.

DoNLAD TRUMP:
Trump remains the odds on favorite for the GOP nomination.

Whatever you may say about the man...whatever you may think of his nature and past...Trump is creating a broad coalition of excitment that is attracting frustrated Republicans, but it is also attracting moderates and even democrats...and they are voting for him. Say what you will about him, the people in this country who are frustrated with Washington DC and career politicans on both sides of the aisle WANT a person like Trump to get in the establishment's face, to take no guff from them, and to shake them to the core. And in this, Trump delivers.

The MSM, the DNC, and GOPe keep waiting for Trump's demeanor and crass, irreverant nature to trip him up, when in fact that very nature, and his independence from PACs and political donors is what is bringing people to him.

I expect that will cotninue.

SUPER TUESDAY RESULTS:
Super Tuesday showed that there may be a path to contest Trump.

That path appeares to be Ted Cruz.

If Kasich and Carson were to drop out of the race on or before the 8th, and if after being defeated in Florida on the 15th Rubio were to drop out, the race would become a two man race between Tump and Cruz. It would likely tighten up considerably. Trump would get some of that support, building on what he already has. Cruz would also get a lot of it.

Would it be enough?

Perhaps not...but then perhaps so. We simply do not know.

My own estimation is that this is the only path possible to have any chance of contesting Trump leading up to the nomination.

The longer it goes without such a coalescing, the less chance there is for it impacting Donald Trump's run at the nomination. Against a split field of four, Trump is going to continue to rack up wins at a two to one ratio. This will inevitably lead to him having the delgates he needs to win the nomination outright, and have them well before the convention.

THE DNC AND MSM:
The Democrats, progessive liberals, MSM, and to some extent, the GOPe, feel that Trump does not have a good chance of defeating Hillary.

This is pure fantasy im my estimation.

Looking at the data...particularly at the massive turnouts for these primaries for the GOP, while the DNC is having lack luster turnouts...I believe two things are happening.

1. The democrtatic base is simply not excited overall. What excitment they do have is coming from Sanders...who at this point seems doomed to lose. The only thing that might keep that from happening is a recommendation by the head of the FBI that Hillary be criminally indicted. If that happens, Hillary is toast, whether the currupt Justice Department under Obama indicts her or not.
2. The second thing that is happening, and I believe it is lost on the MSM, DNC and GOPe, is that Trump is creating a broad coalition of excitment that is attracting many voters (as described above) and resulting in the huge turnouts. It is happening all over the country. The MSMS and DNC, and GOPe keep waiting for Trump's demeanor and crass, irreverant nature to trip him up, when in fact that very nature, and his independence from PACs and political donors is what is bringing people to him.

As a result of this, mY beilef is that in a Trump vs. Hillary election, Trump wins in a landslide the likes of which we have not seen since Ronald Reagan.

Now, I believe Cruz can beat the Democrats too. He may not create as broad a coalition as Trump, but he is capable of tapping into the same frustrtion. In addition, he himself is recognized as a political outsider that is willing and capable of shaking up the establishment politicians to their cores as well.

Becasue of this, right now Cruz is my candidate. He has the record on conservative issues, and a commitment to the constitution that I want in a candidate.

However, should be lose and Trump become the nominee...I will support Trump against Hillary or Sanders becasue I believe he will do the same.

• When Trump says he will build the wall on the southern border...I believe he will build the wall, and we desparately need it.
• When Trump says he will tear up the Iranian deal...I believe he will do so and that he will negotiate from a position of American strength, and we desparately need that.
• when Trump says he will bring back millions of jobs into the country...I beleive he means that too, and I believe he has the knoweldge and expertise to make it happen.
• When trump says he will turn over Obama Care and replace it with something more Free Market related, with insurance opened up acrosss state boarders...I beli3eve he will do so, and we need that too.
• When Trump says he will invigorate the ecomony, lower taxes, and create more wealth...which also means more revenue...I beleive he will do so, and that he has the experience to make it happen.

So, yes, despite whatever other reservations, when I compare my sincere belief in those things I just listed against the prospects of a corrupt, establishment, socio/progressive in Hillary who has promised to double down on Obama'policies, or against an abject, openly socialist Bernie Sanders...I will vote for Trump in a heartbeat.

Jeff Head
Idaho, USA
February 2016

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See the following links for some of my messages to all Americans:

Donlad Trump Phenomenon

My Message on Islamic Terrorism

The Boston Marathon Terror Bombing

Sharia Law must be outlawed in the United States

Fast & Furios and the Obama Administration

Mass Shootings and Gun Control

Black and Latino Americans: For God's Sake Wake Up!

Ferguson Missouri and False Narratives

Secure our Southern Border

My Oath to the Constitution as a US Citizen

[Jeff Head]

Given the polling in the week running up to the election, he did better than many expected.

It is the largest percentage defeat of Trump so far this election...and it netted Cruz almost 100 of the delegates.

So, yes, he would have liked to have gotten over 50% and gotten all of those delegates...but given the year and the tremendous popularity of Trump...it was a good victory.

It was also a must have for Cruz....as is Florida for Rubio...as is Ohio for Kasich.

I believe Rubio is going to lose his home state...and lose it big.

And in Ohio, Kasich will either lose it (which appears likely)or if he wins it, it will most likely be by far smaller a vote percent than Cruz won Texas.

The irony would be though, that since it is a winner take all, he would get all of the delegates. Double irony would be, that even getting all of them will be quite a bit fewer than what Cruz won on Super Tuesday in Texas.

[Pietro]

Thanks for your reply.

I agree the campaign has gotten rough, but in a sense that's to be expected, especially when one of the combatants plays a "no-holds barred" type of offense.

But I think both men are pragmatists and realize that uniting the party is essential for victory, and too, they both have thick enough skins to let a lot of that stuff roll off. Also, they both bring unique and necessary strengths.

In any case, at this point, I think that's the best we can hope for.

[Jeff Head]

I agree...it is the best thing that could happen.

...and who knows? If they came out and said that this had been their strategy all along, and then shook hands and moved forward together, it would negate the attempted backlash by the dems in the general, and allow them to proceed without having to worry about all of that.

I hope you are right.

[bert]

——We simply do not know.-—

There we have it.