Here's another great Map:
Blue - Trump | Gold - Cruz | Red - Rubio
Posted on 03/02/2016 1:03:08 PM PST by Jeff Head
Trump on the other hand is committed to what he says. It's against his nature NOT to accomplish what he sets out to do. And what he's proposing is pretty conservative stuff. No, he doesn't couch it in pretty terms and high sounding rhetoric like Cruz but that's part of Cruz's problem. Reagan KNEW how to talk to people. Reagan knew how to convince, exhort and encourage others to adopt his viewpoint. Same with Trump.
“A lot will come down to March 15 and the winner take all races in FL and Ohio. If Trump takes FL, Rubio is out. If he takes Ohio, Kasich is out. If he takes both, the race is over for all intents and purposes.
If Trump loses both, then the momentum will start to turn against him. That said, he will not be getting out and he has plenty of chances to pick up delegates in the Northeast and elsewhere. If Trump wins just FL or Ohio, the momentum will be on his side going forward that will make him unstoppable.
The bottom line is that by March 15, we will have a much better idea of what will happen.”
In Ohio, there are a lot of industrial, and former industrial, workers. They are JUST the people that are apt to support a guy against unlimited immigration and bad trade deals. If the reports are true, Trump leads by about 4 points over Kasich. That’s pretty narrow, possibly within the MOE...BUUUUT, Carson just left the race, and I think that between Trump and Kasich, Trump will get the lion’s share of those new votes. Ohio is 66 delegates, and another of the 8 states.
If Trump gets both Florida and Ohio, he not only gets 165 delegates and 2 states, he gets momentum AND the reputation of a candidate-slayer. The only one left then will be Cruz. I don’t believe that Cruz can successfully challenge Trump, not only because of the big disadvantage in delegates at that point, and the momentum factor, but also because Cruz has more narrow appeal to voters.
The race will, IMHO, be effectively over by the end of March.
FYI, here’s a great source on the Republican primaries: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_presidential_primaries,_2016
Super tuesday results
I was very hopeful of that at first. I believed for a while that they were rope a doping the MSM and GOPe with their attacks on each other.
But as time has gone on and those attacks deepened and became very personal...it is hard to see either of them giving in in the end.
OTOH, they are both smart men. Nobody would have thought that Reagan was going to put George H.W. Bush on his ticket after Bush attacked him the way he did in 2980.
Yet at the convention...he did so.
So, I suppose it is still possible. it would be a good ticket...but they would be fighting their own quote about one another throughout the general election.
Good points all.
Cruz has to get some momentum between now and the 15th...and take some of the states this Saturday and on the 8th to potentially compete in either FL or Ohio on the 15th. If Trump gets both FL and OHIO he is going to be virtually unstoppable.
We know he will get NY...and he is apt to get CA. But honestly, at that point, I do not think he will need CA.
We shall see.
Great analysis. Thanks for sharing.
Here's another great Map:
You might consider some way of showing candidates standings with regard to the Rule #40 of having 50%+1 delegates in a minimum of 8 states.
That rule will likely not have significance for Trump after the next superTuesday in 2 weeks, since more contests will be winner-take-all. It would have an impact on Cruz (currently with 1 of 8) and Rubio (currently 0 of 8).
Trump has 5 of 8.
Huuuuuh try to be more persuasive ......or change friends !
Wishfull thinking anyone ?
Cruz , Rubio ....Romney ....The unholly alliance !
It tells a lot ! Fake “hard core” “conservatives” and republican establishment together ....
Thank you for a well thought out statement.
Civility is our friend.
HLB
If only he was not running at X42’s behest.... Makes me wonder what the game is...
IMO Rubio has a better shot than Cruz if you look at the upcoming states. The chances are small for both if Trump just takes Ohio or FL. Neither one can reach the needed number of delegates. They are both fighting for a brokered convention, not to win the nomination outright.
As it is, I fully expect Trump to win FL pretty big, and that will end any hope at all for Rubio...though he may stay in as a spoiler anyway.
I hope you are right, but I expect it to be much closer given the stakes involved and the amount of money the GOPe is pouring in to take Trump down. Rubio is not well-liked in FL given his betrayal on amnesty. Still, he could have a shot depending on how successful the MSM and the GOPe are in taking down Trump. The debate tomorrow night is a big trap for Trump. And there will be three against one on stage plus another stacked audience.
Kasich will give Trump a run in Ohio...no doubt about that. But even if he wins...it’s just a small speed bump to Trump, and in all likelihood, it is Kasich’s last hoorah and only win.
Agree. The only reason Kasich is staying in is to give the GOPe a shot at Ohio, a winner take all state. These are delegates that would be denied Trump who will surely finish second in a Kasich win. Without Kasich, Trump would win easily.
I do not think that is going to matter. Look at all the money they threw into Jeb.
Totally and utterly wasted.
I believe the same will be true of any attempt with Rubio.
They simply do not get it. The very reason that Trump is dominating and catching fire is exactly these antics. They more they do it...the brighter the fire is going to burn.
The only reason Kasich is staying in is to give the GOPe a shot at Ohio, a winner take all state. These are delegates that would be denied Trump who will surely finish second in a Kasich win. Without Kasich, Trump would win easily.
That is right...but I think Trump's momentum is going to continue to build after yesterday, through this weekend and next week. Such that it will not matter in the end.
1st I believe there is a good chance that Trump wins Ohio anyway.
2nd, quite frankly, given the other dynamics, I thinks Trump will reach the magic number well before the convention with or without Ohio.
Puerto Rico Cruz 51%+
Virgin Is Cruz 51%+
Samoa Cruz 51% +
Guam Cruz 51% +
There is a large Hispanic population, dominated by Cubans. It is a matter of blood. Rubio will milk it for all it is worth. Lots of Spanish being used.
That is right...but I think Trump's momentum is going to continue to build after yesterday, through this weekend and next week. Such that it will not matter in the end.
Momentum yes, but it is not a clear and easy path. Romney will be speaking tomorrow against Trump. You can bet the Rubio and Cruz ads will continue to harp on the KKK and David Duke. They will be calling for Trump's tax returns and release of the transcript of Trump's meeting with the editorial board of the NYT. And any slip up by Trump over the next few weeks will be amplified.
1st I believe there is a good chance that Trump wins Ohio anyway. 2nd, quite frankly, given the other dynamics, I thinks Trump will reach the magic number well before the convention with or without Ohio.
I hope you are right. The GOPe has not surrendered yet. They will adhere to Trump delenda est.
Best comparison
R Vote D ROUNDED IN THOUSANDS.
187 1
281 247
738 367
75 12
838 386
388 207
1273 750
593 1184 MA
111 185 MN
465 313
834 365
2735 1404
58 134
1014 780
Tell me again
Rubio will break it on March 16th but as of now Ted Cruz holds the record
I am not a Cruz supporter.
Very nice. Thanks Jeff.
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