Posted on 03/02/2016 1:03:08 PM PST by Jeff Head
Now that Super Tuesday is over and tabulated, there are some clear trends setting in. Here is a table of data I am using to see the trends, and comment on the data:
Click for a larger, readable image Going into Super Tuesday, some very definite trends had already been established in the GOP Presidential race. Bacisally it was the very steep trend line of Donad Trump in both the cumulative vote and the cumulative delgates from the first four primary contests, the last three of which he had won. Here's how they looked:
Clearly without a significant change or alteration to those trend lines, the race was going to over very soon. Super Tuesday, with its eleven states, would allow for either a continuation of those trends, or for the opportunity to see some alteration of them. Quite frankly, going in, most people believe that the trends would conitunre and be punctuated, with perhaps Ted Cruz winning Texas, but Trump perhaps winning all of the others. Particularly since the GOP primaries were producing so much excitment and voter turmnout. The GOP primaries setting recrds to that point almost across the board. For the DNC...not so much. In fact, far less so in terms of thgeir numbers. Now, in looking at the data as a result of Super Tuesday, of the almost 16 million people that have voted altogether in the first 15 contests, 60% have voted in the GOP elections, 40% in the DNC. The trend for voter turnout with the GOP has continued. This equates to right around 9.5 million GOP voters and 5.5 million DNC voters to date. For the GOP, Trump is the clear front runner. He has now won 10 contests. Cruz has won four (IA, TX, OK, AK), and Rubio has one one (MN). This has resulted in an intersting impact on total votes and total delgates. Trump has accumuilated 34.42% of the total popular vote. Cruz is at 29.19%, Rubio at 22.49% and Carson and Kasich both between 6% and 7%. If the race suddenly became a two man race right now, it is likely that it would tighten up considerably.
Click for a larger, readable image when you look at the trends, super Tuesday blunted what to that point was a steep rise in Trumps cummulative vote and delegate count. The Cruz wins, particularly the large win in Texas which netted him a large popular vote and large delegate count, along with his victories in Oklahaom and Alaska, helped in that regard. Also, the overall proportionate nature of the race helped. Although Trump won seven contests...a couple of those were really close, and there were four other he lost. So the steep trend he was experiencing after three straight wins in NH, SC, and NV, was flattened out somewhat.
Click for a larger, readable image The same holds for GOP delegates. Right now Trump has accumulated 351 delegates, with Cruz following at 224, Rubio at 112, Kasich at 27, and Carson at 7. Earlier candidates amassed 7 delegates before they dropped out. super Tuesday served to have an impact on overall delegates like it did on overall popular vote.. Whereas before Super Tuesday...with Trump getting those three straight wins, and in taking all 50 delgates in South Caroline...Trumps trend line was very steep. With Super Tuesday and four losses, and two others very close, and partiulcarly with the large delegate count in Texas that went to Cruz, that trend also line flattened out.
Click for a larger, readable image Again, if the race became a two-man race, the delegate count would also likley be very close at this stage. Probably with Trump ahead something like 400 against 320 or so. As it is, here are vote percentages from all fifteen races, from Iowa through Super Tuesday.
Click for a larger, readable image And now for a few word about each candidate. TED CRUZ: Going into Tuesday, many felt he would win TX all right, but they thought it would be by less than 10 poimts. He ended up winning by 17.5% which was a very good night for him in Texas. His home state gave him one and a quarter million votes, the largest vote count for any single state so far for any candidate, GOP or DNC. In addition, when split up according to the TX primary rules, he will have gotten something like 95 delegates from his home state. But cruz also won Oklahoma and Alasksa. This means he now has four first place finishes, and a foundation from which to proceed. MARCO RUBIO: Rubio did win in Minnesota, which now means he has a single victory to his name out of fifteen contests. He also came within 2-3 points in Virginia, which was better than expected. Despite this, it seems pretty clear, that should he lose bFlorida, his home state, on MArc h 15th, that his candidacy will be finished in terms of any hope whatsoever for the nomination. He has cvowed to continue nonetheless...but we shall see what happens after March 15th. JOHN KASICH:
But without a sinfgle win, and should he lose Ohio (which seems clear), he will have very little to go on. BEN CARSON: Ben Carson is a very good, honest man who loves this country and has experienced the American dream by relying on the fundamental American values that can lead to that dream. Hard work, faith in God, honesty, integrity, and developing his God-given talents. He is an exceptional American, but his campaign is simply not resonating. DoNLAD TRUMP: Whatever you may say about the man...whatever you may think of his nature and past...Trump is creating a broad coalition of excitment that is attracting frustrated Republicans, but it is also attracting moderates and even democrats...and they are voting for him. Say what you will about him, the people in this country who are frustrated with Washington DC and career politicans on both sides of the aisle WANT a person like Trump to get in the establishment's face, to take no guff from them, and to shake them to the core. And in this, Trump delivers. The MSM, the DNC, and GOPe keep waiting for Trump's demeanor and crass, irreverant nature to trip him up, when in fact that very nature, and his independence from PACs and political donors is what is bringing people to him. I expect that will cotninue. SUPER TUESDAY RESULTS: That path appeares to be Ted Cruz. If Kasich and Carson were to drop out of the race on or before the 8th, and if after being defeated in Florida on the 15th Rubio were to drop out, the race would become a two man race between Tump and Cruz. It would likely tighten up considerably. Trump would get some of that support, building on what he already has. Cruz would also get a lot of it. Would it be enough? Perhaps not...but then perhaps so. We simply do not know. My own estimation is that this is the only path possible to have any chance of contesting Trump leading up to the nomination. The longer it goes without such a coalescing, the less chance there is for it impacting Donald Trump's run at the nomination. Against a split field of four, Trump is going to continue to rack up wins at a two to one ratio. This will inevitably lead to him having the delgates he needs to win the nomination outright, and have them well before the convention. THE DNC AND MSM: This is pure fantasy im my estimation. Looking at the data...particularly at the massive turnouts for these primaries for the GOP, while the DNC is having lack luster turnouts...I believe two things are happening.
Now, I believe Cruz can beat the Democrats too. He may not create as broad a coalition as Trump, but he is capable of tapping into the same frustrtion. In addition, he himself is recognized as a political outsider that is willing and capable of shaking up the establishment politicians to their cores as well. Becasue of this, right now Cruz is my candidate. He has the record on conservative issues, and a commitment to the constitution that I want in a candidate. However, should be lose and Trump become the nominee...I will support Trump against Hillary or Sanders becasue I believe he will do the same.
Jeff Head
See the following links for some of my messages to all Americans: Donlad Trump Phenomenon |
Trump on the other hand is committed to what he says. It's against his nature NOT to accomplish what he sets out to do. And what he's proposing is pretty conservative stuff. No, he doesn't couch it in pretty terms and high sounding rhetoric like Cruz but that's part of Cruz's problem. Reagan KNEW how to talk to people. Reagan knew how to convince, exhort and encourage others to adopt his viewpoint. Same with Trump.
“A lot will come down to March 15 and the winner take all races in FL and Ohio. If Trump takes FL, Rubio is out. If he takes Ohio, Kasich is out. If he takes both, the race is over for all intents and purposes.
If Trump loses both, then the momentum will start to turn against him. That said, he will not be getting out and he has plenty of chances to pick up delegates in the Northeast and elsewhere. If Trump wins just FL or Ohio, the momentum will be on his side going forward that will make him unstoppable.
The bottom line is that by March 15, we will have a much better idea of what will happen.”
In Ohio, there are a lot of industrial, and former industrial, workers. They are JUST the people that are apt to support a guy against unlimited immigration and bad trade deals. If the reports are true, Trump leads by about 4 points over Kasich. That’s pretty narrow, possibly within the MOE...BUUUUT, Carson just left the race, and I think that between Trump and Kasich, Trump will get the lion’s share of those new votes. Ohio is 66 delegates, and another of the 8 states.
If Trump gets both Florida and Ohio, he not only gets 165 delegates and 2 states, he gets momentum AND the reputation of a candidate-slayer. The only one left then will be Cruz. I don’t believe that Cruz can successfully challenge Trump, not only because of the big disadvantage in delegates at that point, and the momentum factor, but also because Cruz has more narrow appeal to voters.
The race will, IMHO, be effectively over by the end of March.
FYI, here’s a great source on the Republican primaries: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_presidential_primaries,_2016
Super tuesday results
I was very hopeful of that at first. I believed for a while that they were rope a doping the MSM and GOPe with their attacks on each other.
But as time has gone on and those attacks deepened and became very personal...it is hard to see either of them giving in in the end.
OTOH, they are both smart men. Nobody would have thought that Reagan was going to put George H.W. Bush on his ticket after Bush attacked him the way he did in 2980.
Yet at the convention...he did so.
So, I suppose it is still possible. it would be a good ticket...but they would be fighting their own quote about one another throughout the general election.
Good points all.
Cruz has to get some momentum between now and the 15th...and take some of the states this Saturday and on the 8th to potentially compete in either FL or Ohio on the 15th. If Trump gets both FL and OHIO he is going to be virtually unstoppable.
We know he will get NY...and he is apt to get CA. But honestly, at that point, I do not think he will need CA.
We shall see.
Great analysis. Thanks for sharing.
Here's another great Map:
You might consider some way of showing candidates standings with regard to the Rule #40 of having 50%+1 delegates in a minimum of 8 states.
That rule will likely not have significance for Trump after the next superTuesday in 2 weeks, since more contests will be winner-take-all. It would have an impact on Cruz (currently with 1 of 8) and Rubio (currently 0 of 8).
Trump has 5 of 8.
Huuuuuh try to be more persuasive ......or change friends !
Wishfull thinking anyone ?
Cruz , Rubio ....Romney ....The unholly alliance !
It tells a lot ! Fake “hard core” “conservatives” and republican establishment together ....
Thank you for a well thought out statement.
Civility is our friend.
HLB
If only he was not running at X42’s behest.... Makes me wonder what the game is...
IMO Rubio has a better shot than Cruz if you look at the upcoming states. The chances are small for both if Trump just takes Ohio or FL. Neither one can reach the needed number of delegates. They are both fighting for a brokered convention, not to win the nomination outright.
As it is, I fully expect Trump to win FL pretty big, and that will end any hope at all for Rubio...though he may stay in as a spoiler anyway.
I hope you are right, but I expect it to be much closer given the stakes involved and the amount of money the GOPe is pouring in to take Trump down. Rubio is not well-liked in FL given his betrayal on amnesty. Still, he could have a shot depending on how successful the MSM and the GOPe are in taking down Trump. The debate tomorrow night is a big trap for Trump. And there will be three against one on stage plus another stacked audience.
Kasich will give Trump a run in Ohio...no doubt about that. But even if he wins...its just a small speed bump to Trump, and in all likelihood, it is Kasichs last hoorah and only win.
Agree. The only reason Kasich is staying in is to give the GOPe a shot at Ohio, a winner take all state. These are delegates that would be denied Trump who will surely finish second in a Kasich win. Without Kasich, Trump would win easily.
I do not think that is going to matter. Look at all the money they threw into Jeb.
Totally and utterly wasted.
I believe the same will be true of any attempt with Rubio.
They simply do not get it. The very reason that Trump is dominating and catching fire is exactly these antics. They more they do it...the brighter the fire is going to burn.
The only reason Kasich is staying in is to give the GOPe a shot at Ohio, a winner take all state. These are delegates that would be denied Trump who will surely finish second in a Kasich win. Without Kasich, Trump would win easily.
That is right...but I think Trump's momentum is going to continue to build after yesterday, through this weekend and next week. Such that it will not matter in the end.
1st I believe there is a good chance that Trump wins Ohio anyway.
2nd, quite frankly, given the other dynamics, I thinks Trump will reach the magic number well before the convention with or without Ohio.
Puerto Rico Cruz 51%+
Virgin Is Cruz 51%+
Samoa Cruz 51% +
Guam Cruz 51% +
There is a large Hispanic population, dominated by Cubans. It is a matter of blood. Rubio will milk it for all it is worth. Lots of Spanish being used.
That is right...but I think Trump's momentum is going to continue to build after yesterday, through this weekend and next week. Such that it will not matter in the end.
Momentum yes, but it is not a clear and easy path. Romney will be speaking tomorrow against Trump. You can bet the Rubio and Cruz ads will continue to harp on the KKK and David Duke. They will be calling for Trump's tax returns and release of the transcript of Trump's meeting with the editorial board of the NYT. And any slip up by Trump over the next few weeks will be amplified.
1st I believe there is a good chance that Trump wins Ohio anyway. 2nd, quite frankly, given the other dynamics, I thinks Trump will reach the magic number well before the convention with or without Ohio.
I hope you are right. The GOPe has not surrendered yet. They will adhere to Trump delenda est.
Best comparison
R Vote D ROUNDED IN THOUSANDS.
187 1
281 247
738 367
75 12
838 386
388 207
1273 750
593 1184 MA
111 185 MN
465 313
834 365
2735 1404
58 134
1014 780
Tell me again
Rubio will break it on March 16th but as of now Ted Cruz holds the record
I am not a Cruz supporter.
Very nice. Thanks Jeff.
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