2016-0307 Presidential Primary Election Numbers & Analysis

FreeRepublic | March 7, 2016 | Jeff Head

[Jeff Head]

2016-0307 Presidential Primary Election Numbers & Analysis

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This week's presidential primary numbers include the primaries from Saturday and Sunday for the GOP and DNC.

On the Republican side, this included Kentucky, Maine, Louisiana, Kansas, and Puerto Rico. On the Democrat side, it included Nebraska, Kansas, Louisian, Maine, and American Samoa.

GOP Results:
Doanld Trump won Louisiana and Kentucky, though in both states he was contested fairly closely by Ted Cruz. Ted Cruz won going away in Maine and Kansas. And Marco Rubio won his second contest by a huge majority in Puerto Rico.

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This has resulted in Donald Trump having a 3.5 million popular vote total compared to right at 3 million for Ted cruz, and about 2.2 million for Marco Rubio. Altogether well over ten million people have voted in the GOP Primaries to date, and they are setting record turnout in almost every contest.

In terms of the principle prize...delegates:

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Cruz won the delgate count this weekend, taking in a total of 74. Donald Trump took in 62, Marco Rubio took in 34, and John Kasich picked up 8.

The total delgate count to date, by these numbers, shows Donald Trump in 1st place with 399 delegates, Ted Cruz closing somewhat in 2nd place at 306, Marco Rubio well back in 3rd with 152 delegates, and John Kasich a very distant 4th with 35 delgates.

GOP Analysis:
Donald Trump remains the clear front runner, and an individual who clearly represents the principle anti-establishment candidate for a large part of the GOP voters.

However, this was the first time Ted cruz picked up delegates over all in a multi-state vote. Donald Trunp has now won 12 contests, Ted Cruz 6, and Marco Rubio 2. The vote on Tuesday, March 8th, where Michigan, Mississippi, Idaho, and Hawaii vote, will be another indicator on whether the trends regarding Donald Trump and Ted Cruz pulling away as a two man race will continue.

But the principle defining point will occurr on March 15th when Ohio, Florida, Illinois, North carolina and Missouri vote. Many of those are winner take all contests.

Should Donald Trump win both Florida and Ohio on the 15th, his position as the clear front runner and odds on favorite of winning the nomination hands down before the convention will be firmly established.

At this point, Florida is polling very solidly in favor of Donald Trump, and he is also winning in Ohio, though both John Kasich and Ted cruz are challenging him there.

If Donald Trump wins only one of those two states, and Ted Cruz otherwise continues to gain strong delgetae counts through winning several other states and placing well in proportional states, he will have a chance of winning enough delegates to deny Donald Trump and out and out win.

If Marco Rubio loses Florida, it will be clear that his campaign and candidacy, in terms of any chance whatsoever of winning, or of even challenging Donald Trump seriously, will be over.

That will also be the case for John Kasich in Ohio.

Summarrizing, if, on March 15th, Donald Trump wins both Ohio and Florida, is is unlikely that anyone will be able to stop him from winning the GOP nomination outright.

If Trump loses either Ohio or Florida, and particularly if he loses both, then Ted Cruz will be the candidate who will emerge with an outside chance of actually outright winning the nomination, and, with a stronger chance of winning enough delgates to deny Trump the outright nomination, leading to a GOP convention fight.

DNC Results:
Of the five contests this last weeked, Bernie Sanders won three of them on the Democratic side, Nebraska, Kansas and Maine. Hillary Clinton won the other two, Louisiana and American Samoa.

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Hillary Clinton now enjoys a large lead in terms of overall popular vote. she now has a total of well over 4 million votes to 2.5 million votes for Bernie Stnders. A total of over 6.5 million votes have been cast by Democratic voters...far less than the Republican turnout.

In terms of the principle prize...delegates:

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Hillary cliton won a total of 93 delegates this last weekend compared to Bernie Sander's 75. This further increased Hillary Clinton's overall delgate count to 861 delegates (not including super delgates in other states that have already committed to Clinton) to Benie Sander's 498. When you add super delegates in those other states that have not voted yet who have already declared for Hillary, her total is approaching 1200, more than halfway to those needed to win her the nomination.

DNC Analysis:
Clearly, Bernie Sanders is going to continue to win some states and accumulate delegates. In fact, he is collecting far more than would have been thought possible for an individual who for most of his career has not been a registered Democrat, and who has openly delcarled himself a socialist. This plays to some inherent weaknesess in Hillary Clitnon in terms of her overall candidacy. She has very high negatives, and as in the GOP, there is a significantnumber in the Democrat Party who view the democratic establishment as failed and who want an outsider. Bernie Saners represents that on the democrat side.

Just the same, it is clear that barring other outside influences or situations, that Hillary clinton will win the DNC Nomination for President.

Enter HIllary's email scandal.

The actual contest in this election with Hillary is Hillary versus the FBI. There is a criminal investigation going on into Hillary's use of a private email server for many of her governmnet business emails while she was Secretary of state. Such use is defintely against US Government policy, and against the law. Last week the individual who owned the service that set up the private server for Hillary Clinton, who had to date pled the 5th amdendment when testifying on the subject, apparently turned state's evidence and was granted immunity and protection by the FBI.

This could lead to very damaging testimony in the case. Should Hillary Clinton hersllf be called to testify in the criminal case...she will take a hit. If the FBI ultimately recommends to prosecute Hillary in this case, it is hard to see how her candidacy remains viable...in which case it is likely that the DNC will have a brokered convention itself and have to select another niminee. If that turns out to be someone other than BErnie, there will be a fracture in the DNC over this.

Summarizing the DNC side. Bernie Sanders is going to have a good sowing, but his delegate count is likely to fall well short of denyoing HIllary the nomination.

However...if the FBI indicts Hillary clinton, this will throw the DNC into a furor. If that happens, Hillary will be damaged, perhaps beyond repair, and cetrtainly in terms of her electability.

This might allow Bernie Sanders to be the nomineee...it might also lead to a brokered DNC convention which could produce an entirely different candidate.

OTHER DATA:

Here are some other charts of interest.

GOP Overal Popular vote Percentage chart, followed by the chart of each contest in terms of percentage vote:

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DNC Overal Popular vote Percentage vote chart followed by the chart of each contest in terms of percentage vote:

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[Jeff Head]

My latest numbers and analysis. I will post another after the vote on Tuesday, another before the March 15th vote, and another after that March 15th vote.

We should have a much clearer picture at that time.

[Jeff Head]

FYI...latest numbers.

[Qwackertoo]

Thank you.

[Doogle]

Thanks for doing this Jeff

[Uncle Miltie]

Thank you for the excellent, numeric, and apparently unbiased analysis of the state of the race.

[mrsmith]

You’re batting 990! Fantastic!

“Marco Rubio won his second contest by a huge majority in Puerto Rico. “
But compare:

“daveweigel ;@daveweigel · 2h2 hours ago
Final Puerto Rico vote: Rubio 71%. Compare to Romney 85% (2012), McCain 90% (2008), Bush 94% (2000).”

You make the point IMO that Ohio is more important than Fla to Cruz. Stop Kasich: Rubio is already toast.

[Jeff Head]

You are both welcome.

The unvarnished numbers relaywhat is happening better than all of the prognosticators.

I believe that most people, when simply presented with the facts of what is happening, can see for themselves.

Then it is a matter of simply using the internet to do your own research...and for me that means going to each candidate’s site and reading in depth their plans and deciding what I think about those plans as opposed to having someone else tell me.

Also listening to what each one says about their plans, and their ideas, and their views...and ignoring all of the attack statements by the candidates and their advocates.

I then can make up my own mind as to who I thinks has good plans and who I think really means that they say.

Not what others tell me to think...or what they mean...or what they will or will not do.

finally...I make it a matter of personal prayer...for me and my family..

I vote tomorrow in Idaho and it will be for Cruz. I hope we can deliver Idaho to the Cruz camp.

Having said that, should Trump win the nomination...I will support him 100% against Hillary or sanders.

[Doogle]

I’m always interested in actual voter numbers

[LS]

What’s your take on Idaho?

[Jeff Head]

The last “official poll” was back in January and had Trump about 10 points ahead of Cruz...with others way behind that.

But lots has happened since then.

Trump has a strong, vocal following here. Cruz has (I believe) and equally large following, but better organization.

I believe Cruz has a very good chance of winning Idaho.

[Jeff Head]

Here’s my take on all of the talk of a brokered convention.

It may be possible, but I do not trust for any instant someone like Lindsey Graham or other GOPe individual pushing for it. Trying to make any promises regarding it.

Neither should Cruz or Trump.

The GOPe will try and use Cruz to get to a brokered convention and try and deny the nomination to Cruz at that point if they get there.

I believe it is patently obvious that the GOP voters are saying VERY LOUDLY that the do not want any GOPe candidate on the ticket.

IMHO, one of two things is going to happen.,

1. either Trump is going to win the nomination out right...with no brokering needed.

2. Trump and Cruz will fight for the nomination up to the convention with Trump having a lead, but being just short, and Cruz have a very sizable number of candidates.

If number 1 is the option, the trump should choose a non-establishment running mate and deny the establishment any position on the ticket.

If number 2 is what happens, then Trump and Cruz will have the delegates to hands down win this thing and that is what they should do. Combine...unite...and have a completely non-establishment ticket of Trump/Cruz with something like 80% of the delegates.

[AllAmericanGirl44]

bkmk

[JayGalt]

Thank you for the clear & thorough analysis.

[Red Badger]

Altogether well over ten million people have voted in the GOP Primaries to date, and they are setting record turnout in almost every contest.

As opposed to just shy of 7 million for the Dems total turnout.........................interesting............................

[smoothsailing]

good stuff! I appreciate the effort you put in to this. Thanks!

[Red Badger]

However...if the FBI indicts Hillary clinton, this will throw the DNC into a furor. If that happens, Hillary will be damaged, perhaps beyond repair, and cetrtainly in terms of her electability. This might allow Bernie Sanders to be the nomineee...it might also lead to a brokered DNC convention which could produce an entirely different candidate.

AlGore.........................................

[Red Badger]

What’s your take on Idaho?.................small potatoes......................B^)

[irish guard]

The interesting thing for me is to look at he raw numbers of votes cast in the aggregate for Republican candidates versus the raw number of votes cast for the two democrats. I’m not sure it’s a solid comparison, but there seem to be a lot more republicans out there voting in the primaries than there are democrats.

[joanie-f]

Very nice work, Jeff. It’s difficult to present figures and analyses in an unbiased way, since emotions and prejudices seem to rule the day more in this election cycle than any one I have ever seen ... but you did so masterfully. Kudos for that! :)

[Jeff Head]

Thanks, Joanie.

As I said above, I believe that most people, when simply presented with the facts of what is happening, can see for themselves.

Then it is a matter of simply using the internet to do your own research...and for me that means going to each candidate’s site and reading in depth their plans and deciding what I think about those plans as opposed to having someone else tell me.

Also listening to what each one says about their plans, and their ideas, and their views...and ignoring all of the attack statements by the candidates and their advocates.

I then can make up my own mind as to who I thinks has good plans and who I think really means that they say.

Not what others tell me to think...or what they mean...or what they will or will not do.

...here's a couple of more charts I am adding to the mix for my next installments: