2016-0307 Presidential Primary Election Numbers & Analysis

FreeRepublic | March 7, 2016 | Jeff Head

[Jeff Head]

My latest numbers and analysis. I will post another after the vote on Tuesday, another before the March 15th vote, and another after that March 15th vote.

We should have a much clearer picture at that time.

[Jeff Head]

FYI...latest numbers.

[Qwackertoo]

Thank you.

[Doogle]

Thanks for doing this Jeff

[Uncle Miltie]

Thank you for the excellent, numeric, and apparently unbiased analysis of the state of the race.

[mrsmith]

You’re batting 990! Fantastic!

“Marco Rubio won his second contest by a huge majority in Puerto Rico. “
But compare:

“daveweigel ;@daveweigel · 2h2 hours ago
Final Puerto Rico vote: Rubio 71%. Compare to Romney 85% (2012), McCain 90% (2008), Bush 94% (2000).”

You make the point IMO that Ohio is more important than Fla to Cruz. Stop Kasich: Rubio is already toast.

[Jeff Head]

You are both welcome.

The unvarnished numbers relaywhat is happening better than all of the prognosticators.

I believe that most people, when simply presented with the facts of what is happening, can see for themselves.

Then it is a matter of simply using the internet to do your own research...and for me that means going to each candidate’s site and reading in depth their plans and deciding what I think about those plans as opposed to having someone else tell me.

Also listening to what each one says about their plans, and their ideas, and their views...and ignoring all of the attack statements by the candidates and their advocates.

I then can make up my own mind as to who I thinks has good plans and who I think really means that they say.

Not what others tell me to think...or what they mean...or what they will or will not do.

finally...I make it a matter of personal prayer...for me and my family..

I vote tomorrow in Idaho and it will be for Cruz. I hope we can deliver Idaho to the Cruz camp.

Having said that, should Trump win the nomination...I will support him 100% against Hillary or sanders.

[Doogle]

I’m always interested in actual voter numbers

[LS]

What’s your take on Idaho?

[Jeff Head]

The last “official poll” was back in January and had Trump about 10 points ahead of Cruz...with others way behind that.

But lots has happened since then.

Trump has a strong, vocal following here. Cruz has (I believe) and equally large following, but better organization.

I believe Cruz has a very good chance of winning Idaho.

[Jeff Head]

Here’s my take on all of the talk of a brokered convention.

It may be possible, but I do not trust for any instant someone like Lindsey Graham or other GOPe individual pushing for it. Trying to make any promises regarding it.

Neither should Cruz or Trump.

The GOPe will try and use Cruz to get to a brokered convention and try and deny the nomination to Cruz at that point if they get there.

I believe it is patently obvious that the GOP voters are saying VERY LOUDLY that the do not want any GOPe candidate on the ticket.

IMHO, one of two things is going to happen.,

1. either Trump is going to win the nomination out right...with no brokering needed.

2. Trump and Cruz will fight for the nomination up to the convention with Trump having a lead, but being just short, and Cruz have a very sizable number of candidates.

If number 1 is the option, the trump should choose a non-establishment running mate and deny the establishment any position on the ticket.

If number 2 is what happens, then Trump and Cruz will have the delegates to hands down win this thing and that is what they should do. Combine...unite...and have a completely non-establishment ticket of Trump/Cruz with something like 80% of the delegates.

[AllAmericanGirl44]

bkmk

[JayGalt]

Thank you for the clear & thorough analysis.

[Red Badger]

Altogether well over ten million people have voted in the GOP Primaries to date, and they are setting record turnout in almost every contest.

As opposed to just shy of 7 million for the Dems total turnout.........................interesting............................

[smoothsailing]

good stuff! I appreciate the effort you put in to this. Thanks!

[Red Badger]

However...if the FBI indicts Hillary clinton, this will throw the DNC into a furor. If that happens, Hillary will be damaged, perhaps beyond repair, and cetrtainly in terms of her electability. This might allow Bernie Sanders to be the nomineee...it might also lead to a brokered DNC convention which could produce an entirely different candidate.

AlGore.........................................

[Red Badger]

What’s your take on Idaho?.................small potatoes......................B^)

[irish guard]

The interesting thing for me is to look at he raw numbers of votes cast in the aggregate for Republican candidates versus the raw number of votes cast for the two democrats. I’m not sure it’s a solid comparison, but there seem to be a lot more republicans out there voting in the primaries than there are democrats.

[joanie-f]

Very nice work, Jeff. It’s difficult to present figures and analyses in an unbiased way, since emotions and prejudices seem to rule the day more in this election cycle than any one I have ever seen ... but you did so masterfully. Kudos for that! :)

[Jeff Head]

Thanks, Joanie.

As I said above, I believe that most people, when simply presented with the facts of what is happening, can see for themselves.

Then it is a matter of simply using the internet to do your own research...and for me that means going to each candidate’s site and reading in depth their plans and deciding what I think about those plans as opposed to having someone else tell me.

Also listening to what each one says about their plans, and their ideas, and their views...and ignoring all of the attack statements by the candidates and their advocates.

I then can make up my own mind as to who I thinks has good plans and who I think really means that they say.

Not what others tell me to think...or what they mean...or what they will or will not do.

...here's a couple of more charts I am adding to the mix for my next installments: