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2016-0309 Presidential Primary Election Numbers & Analysis
FR | March 9. 2016 | Jeff Head

Posted on 03/09/2016 9:48:58 AM PST by Jeff Head

2016-0309 Presidential Primary Election Numbers & Analysis


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This week's presidential primary numbers include the primaries from Tuesday's election for the GOP and DNC.

On the Republican side, this included Michigan, Mississippi, Idaho, and Hawaii. On the Democrat side, it included Michigan and Mississippi.

GOP Results:
Doanld Trump won Michigan, Mississippi, and Hawaii, though in all three Ted Cruz took second place, staying within 9-12 points and accumulating delgates. Ted Cruz won Idaho by 17.5%. John Kasich did well

in Michigan, ending up in 3rd place but only 1% behind Ted Cruz, and picking up several delgates. It was a dismal night for Marco Rubio, who did not win a single delegate from the four races.


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This has resulted in Donald Trump having a 4.3 million popular vote total compared to 3.6 million for Ted cruz, about 2.4 million for Marco Rubio, and now over 1 million for John Kasich. Altogether over

twelve million people have voted in the GOP Primaries, and they coninuue to set records for overall turnout in almost every race.

In terms of the principle prize...delegates:


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Donald Trump won the overall delegate count on Tuesday, picking up a total of 72 delegates for the night. Ted cruz kept it very respectable, himself picking up 58 delegates. Marco Rubio, as stated, received no delgates from the night, and John Kasich picked up 16.

The total delgate count to date, by these numbers, shows Donald Trump in 1st place with 471 delegates, Ted Cruz in 2nd place at 364, Marco Rubio well back in 3rd with 152 delegates, and John Kasich now at 52

delegates. Others, including Ben carson, have a total of 14.

GOP Analysis:
Donald Trump helped solidify his position last night winning 3 of the 4 races. In Mississippi, his total was over 48% in a four person race. He was at 38% in Michigan and 42% in Hawaii. There had been

talk leading up to Tuesday's vote of Trump perhaps weakening...but he showed that is not the case. He has set himself up with the chance, depedning on how he does next Tuesday when over 350 delegates are up

for grabs, to punctuate his lead strongly...and if he wins both Ohio and florida, to assure a trend line that leads to his nomination.

Ted Cruz won convincingly in Idaho, bringing in 46% of the vote and leading Trump there by over 17%. Cruz kept the other races close enough for him to get decent delegate tallies in each, and to be able to point out that if it were a two man race, he could either win or seriously compete with very close races in each. This is his stategy now, to get the others out of the race and force an actual one on one contest.

Marco Rubio's performance was very poor. He got only 5% of the vote in Mississippi, and only 9% in Michigan...finishing fourth of four in both places. This is leading many to encourage him to drop out of

the race now, before next week's Florida vote in an attempt to avoid a defeat there and maintain a better long term political outlook for himself. Pehaps he will...but based on last night's speech, it certainly does not look like it.

John Kasich had a good showing in Michigan and he has vowed to stay in through next week in the hopes that he, as the current Governor of Ohio, can beat Donald Trump in Ohio and allow him to stay in longer. Even if he does, it is clear that he could only hope to play the role of a spoiler and a potential broker at the convention. But it is clear that any chance he has, if there ever was one, of seriously competing with Trump, much less challenging him, is non-existent.

Tuesday's overall results made it all the more clear that should Donald Trump win both Florida and Ohio next week, he will definitely become the odds on favorite of winning the nomination hands down before the convention.

Tuesday's results also made it clear that Ted cruz is the only other candidate with any chance at all of challenging Donald Trump for the nomination...and without Trump losing at least one of the MArch 15th

large, winner-take-all contests in either Florida or Ohio, that hope will be fading.

DNC Results:
The biggest surprise of the night...and it was a BIG one, was Bernie sander's victory in Michigan. It was completely unexpected and a shock to the Clinton campaign.

It was expected that Bernie would do well in Ann Arbor and in other rural areas, but throughout the night everyone waited for the returns to come in from the Detroit metropolitan area, with its large

African American population. it was expected that these arewas would go 80% or better for HIllary Clinton and ultimately give her the victory in Michigan.

It didn't happen...and when they did come in, it was closer to a 60-40 split, which was the shock of the evening.

This result points to some serious flaws and weaknesses in Hillary Cltinon's viability going forward, even though she gained significantly in the delegate count as a result of a huge win in Mississippi.


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Hillary Clinton's popular vote lead continues to rise. She now has a total of almost five million votes to Benie Sanders 3.2 million.

Overall, the DNC primaries have attracted over 9 million voters. But compared to the GOP's 12 million, the Democrats continue to lag behind in total turnout.

In terms of the principle prize...delegates:


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Hillary cliton won a total of 109 delegates last night, increasing her lead over Bernie sanders. She has now won a total of 970 delgates.

But Bernie sanders was expected to lose by many more delgates. But his surprizinly good showing in Michigan meant that overall last night, he gained 79 delegates. His total

is now 577.

when you consider super delegates from other states that have not voted yet, but have already declared for Hillary, Hillary's total delegate count is now almost 1300. This is well over halfway to the needed count to win the nomination.

DNC Analysis:
Bernie sandewr's surprising showing in Michigan has got many people wondering whether he can continue such performances throughout the rust belt. Ohio, Illinois, Pennsylvania, etc. If he does, though it is

not likely that he will be able to overtake Hillary's delegate count, he may continue to reveal Hillary weaknesses with young voters, with women (which was supposed to be her absolute strong point), and

apparently a potential in the northern states, to not do as well as expected with minorities, particularl the black vote.

The email scandal continues to be a shadow over Hillary's campaign. The FBI continues with its criminal investigation and the key issue will be whether the FBI Director recommends that Hillary be indicted

over the many classified, and even top secret emails that were on her private server...and her statements that there were none there.

With the offer for immunity and protection to the individual who set up and maintained her server, and with his acceptance of that deal, everyone is waiting to see what will happen next.

Time will tell...but a recommendation for indictment is likely to be a fatal blow to Hillary's campaign.

When could something like that occur and a decision be made public? Probably not for several months yet, maybe five or six.

Summarizing the DNC side. Bernie Sander's showing in Michigan was a shocker. It reveals more weakness in Hillary's campaign. But the real potential game changer remains the FBI investigation.

OTHER DATA:

Here are some other charts of interest.

GOP Overal Popular vote Percentage chart, followed by the chart of each contest in terms of percentage vote, followed by a map of the current states won:


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DNC Overal Popular vote Percentage vote chart followed by the chart of each contest in terms of percentage vote:


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TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; FReeper Editorial; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2016election; dncprimaries; gopprimaries; nobama
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To: Jeff Head
It was expected that Bernie would do well in Ann Arbor and in other rural areas, but throughout the night everyone waited for the returns to come in from the Detroit metropolitan area, with its large African American population. it was expected that these arewas would go 80% or better for HIllary Clinton and ultimately give her the victory in Michigan. It didn't happen...and when they did come in, it was closer to a 60-40 split, which was the shock of the evening.

Was there any exit polling to back this up as 'real'?

21 posted on 03/09/2016 11:05:02 AM PST by GOPJ (Republican elites have turned into " race-baiting bigots" - feeding on PC mob evils.)
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