2016-0309 Presidential Primary Election Numbers & Analysis

FR | March 9. 2016 | Jeff Head

[Jeff Head]

2016-0309 Presidential Primary Election Numbers & Analysis

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This week's presidential primary numbers include the primaries from Tuesday's election for the GOP and DNC.

On the Republican side, this included Michigan, Mississippi, Idaho, and Hawaii. On the Democrat side, it included Michigan and Mississippi.

GOP Results:
Doanld Trump won Michigan, Mississippi, and Hawaii, though in all three Ted Cruz took second place, staying within 9-12 points and accumulating delgates. Ted Cruz won Idaho by 17.5%. John Kasich did well

in Michigan, ending up in 3rd place but only 1% behind Ted Cruz, and picking up several delgates. It was a dismal night for Marco Rubio, who did not win a single delegate from the four races.

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This has resulted in Donald Trump having a 4.3 million popular vote total compared to 3.6 million for Ted cruz, about 2.4 million for Marco Rubio, and now over 1 million for John Kasich. Altogether over

twelve million people have voted in the GOP Primaries, and they coninuue to set records for overall turnout in almost every race.

In terms of the principle prize...delegates:

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Donald Trump won the overall delegate count on Tuesday, picking up a total of 72 delegates for the night. Ted cruz kept it very respectable, himself picking up 58 delegates. Marco Rubio, as stated, received no delgates from the night, and John Kasich picked up 16.

The total delgate count to date, by these numbers, shows Donald Trump in 1st place with 471 delegates, Ted Cruz in 2nd place at 364, Marco Rubio well back in 3rd with 152 delegates, and John Kasich now at 52

delegates. Others, including Ben carson, have a total of 14.

GOP Analysis:
Donald Trump helped solidify his position last night winning 3 of the 4 races. In Mississippi, his total was over 48% in a four person race. He was at 38% in Michigan and 42% in Hawaii. There had been

talk leading up to Tuesday's vote of Trump perhaps weakening...but he showed that is not the case. He has set himself up with the chance, depedning on how he does next Tuesday when over 350 delegates are up

for grabs, to punctuate his lead strongly...and if he wins both Ohio and florida, to assure a trend line that leads to his nomination.

Ted Cruz won convincingly in Idaho, bringing in 46% of the vote and leading Trump there by over 17%. Cruz kept the other races close enough for him to get decent delegate tallies in each, and to be able to point out that if it were a two man race, he could either win or seriously compete with very close races in each. This is his stategy now, to get the others out of the race and force an actual one on one contest.

Marco Rubio's performance was very poor. He got only 5% of the vote in Mississippi, and only 9% in Michigan...finishing fourth of four in both places. This is leading many to encourage him to drop out of

the race now, before next week's Florida vote in an attempt to avoid a defeat there and maintain a better long term political outlook for himself. Pehaps he will...but based on last night's speech, it certainly does not look like it.

John Kasich had a good showing in Michigan and he has vowed to stay in through next week in the hopes that he, as the current Governor of Ohio, can beat Donald Trump in Ohio and allow him to stay in longer. Even if he does, it is clear that he could only hope to play the role of a spoiler and a potential broker at the convention. But it is clear that any chance he has, if there ever was one, of seriously competing with Trump, much less challenging him, is non-existent.

Tuesday's overall results made it all the more clear that should Donald Trump win both Florida and Ohio next week, he will definitely become the odds on favorite of winning the nomination hands down before the convention.

Tuesday's results also made it clear that Ted cruz is the only other candidate with any chance at all of challenging Donald Trump for the nomination...and without Trump losing at least one of the MArch 15th

large, winner-take-all contests in either Florida or Ohio, that hope will be fading.

DNC Results:
The biggest surprise of the night...and it was a BIG one, was Bernie sander's victory in Michigan. It was completely unexpected and a shock to the Clinton campaign.

It was expected that Bernie would do well in Ann Arbor and in other rural areas, but throughout the night everyone waited for the returns to come in from the Detroit metropolitan area, with its large

African American population. it was expected that these arewas would go 80% or better for HIllary Clinton and ultimately give her the victory in Michigan.

It didn't happen...and when they did come in, it was closer to a 60-40 split, which was the shock of the evening.

This result points to some serious flaws and weaknesses in Hillary Cltinon's viability going forward, even though she gained significantly in the delegate count as a result of a huge win in Mississippi.

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Hillary Clinton's popular vote lead continues to rise. She now has a total of almost five million votes to Benie Sanders 3.2 million.

Overall, the DNC primaries have attracted over 9 million voters. But compared to the GOP's 12 million, the Democrats continue to lag behind in total turnout.

In terms of the principle prize...delegates:

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Hillary cliton won a total of 109 delegates last night, increasing her lead over Bernie sanders. She has now won a total of 970 delgates.

But Bernie sanders was expected to lose by many more delgates. But his surprizinly good showing in Michigan meant that overall last night, he gained 79 delegates. His total

is now 577.

when you consider super delegates from other states that have not voted yet, but have already declared for Hillary, Hillary's total delegate count is now almost 1300. This is well over halfway to the needed count to win the nomination.

DNC Analysis:
Bernie sandewr's surprising showing in Michigan has got many people wondering whether he can continue such performances throughout the rust belt. Ohio, Illinois, Pennsylvania, etc. If he does, though it is

not likely that he will be able to overtake Hillary's delegate count, he may continue to reveal Hillary weaknesses with young voters, with women (which was supposed to be her absolute strong point), and

apparently a potential in the northern states, to not do as well as expected with minorities, particularl the black vote.

The email scandal continues to be a shadow over Hillary's campaign. The FBI continues with its criminal investigation and the key issue will be whether the FBI Director recommends that Hillary be indicted

over the many classified, and even top secret emails that were on her private server...and her statements that there were none there.

With the offer for immunity and protection to the individual who set up and maintained her server, and with his acceptance of that deal, everyone is waiting to see what will happen next.

Time will tell...but a recommendation for indictment is likely to be a fatal blow to Hillary's campaign.

When could something like that occur and a decision be made public? Probably not for several months yet, maybe five or six.

Summarizing the DNC side. Bernie Sander's showing in Michigan was a shocker. It reveals more weakness in Hillary's campaign. But the real potential game changer remains the FBI investigation.

OTHER DATA:

Here are some other charts of interest.

GOP Overal Popular vote Percentage chart, followed by the chart of each contest in terms of percentage vote, followed by a map of the current states won:

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DNC Overal Popular vote Percentage vote chart followed by the chart of each contest in terms of percentage vote:

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[Jeff Head]

My data after the Michigan, Mississippi, Idaho, and Hawaii votes on the GOP side, and Michigan, Mississippi votes on the DNC side.

I will post another of these after next Tuesday's results.

Next Tuesday is going to advance things significantly IMHO.

IMHO, Rubio should get out before next Tuesday's vote...but I do not believe he can step away from it.

[Jeff Head]

Latest data

[marron]

There is no way Rubio gets out before Florida votes, though he should, he is not doing well by all accounts.

I am happy, my first choice and my second choice are in the lead for the nomination. So I am smiling. Unfortunately my first choice is still running behind my second choice... but the race isn’t over yet.

[Jeff Head]

I am happy, my first choice and my second choice are in the lead for the nomination. So I am smiling. Unfortunately my first choice is still running behind my second choice... but the race isn’t over yet.

Same here.

But that means is that one way or another...the GOPe is taking a BIG *and well deserved) hit this election.

[kingu]

Of course, like most freepers, I merely skimmed your data without actually reading everything, so please jump down my throat if I missed it, but do you also analyze the results in states Romney lost (or won) comparing the DNC vs GOP vote percentages?

I mean, at the end of the day, while delegates are great, the ultimate prize is the White House, and knowing how candidates are performing not just in battleground states, but in ‘safe’ states would be important data for future prediction.

[Tuxedo]

Of the states won by Shrillary, I see only four that could go her way in the General, and of those, only one certain (MA).

[Jeff Head]

Since these are primaries, it is not too straight forward to make those comparisons...but we do have some evidence.

A couple of those.

Trump is bringing in A LOT of people. He is getting democrats to cross over and vote for him. Some of that may be political in terms of some hoping to make him the nominee...but I know for a fact that some of it is democrats who are sick of the establishment on both sides and believe Trump will shake all of that up.

In addition, his appeal to independents is strong.

Also,and I think this is important, IMHO it is very likely that Trump will put places like New York and other states where the GOP has not won there since Reagan, in play.

I will talk more about that as we get to those states.

But a clear trend is that the GOP is attracting a lot more excitement and voters in 2016. Right now there is a 60-40 split in terms of overall actual turnout. And that bodes very well too if they will also show up in November.

[faucetman]

Do you know where I can find “detailed” information on the Michigan results? For instance, how Muslims voted and where.
Essentially, every demographic there is.
Hopefully, such a site would include other states as well.

[Jeff Head]

CNN has a decent exit poll.

Here’s the GOP Michigan exit polls:
http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/mi/Rep

Here’s the DNC Michigan exit polls:
http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/mi/Dem

Does not include religion though.

[RusynMama]

Any data or chart anywhere that compares voter turnout (R and D) to 2012 and/or 2008 primaries? We keep hearing “record turnouts” — but data seems hard to find.

Visual/chart form might be very interesting.

[tacticalogic]

African American population. it was expected that these arewas would go 80% or better for HIllary Clinton and ultimately give her the victory in Michigan.

It didn't happen...and when they did come in, it was closer to a 60-40 split, which was the shock of the evening.

Hopefully that'll get worse if she throws Cheryl Mills under the bus to cover her own ass on the emails.

[deport]

Just a suggestion that may make the presentation more readable.

Get rid of the text centering and let it be left margin as in normal text.

[theoilpainter]

Nice analysis. Two thoughts: There will be no indictment from the all Democrat Grand Jury or the all Democrat DOJ and AG. Second, delegate count not with standing, Trump is on track to get the nomination despite only getting 35% of the Republican vote, and with substantial opposition from many in the “other” 65%. It is difficult to see how anyone could/should get such a nomination without at least 50% support from Republican voters.

[Wpin]

Good job, a bit biased towards Cruz but overall good for anyone to read. Thank you.

After reading it I would guess another way to put the analysis would be to say. Even after constant attack by establishment, PAC’s, Lobbyists, other Candidates, Media, etc. the American people loudly shout their preference TRUMP! Cruz’s only win was in the highly Mormon state of Idaho probably reflecting one of two states Romney actually hurt Trump.

That is a little more balanced don’t you think?

[Jeff Head]

I am in Idaho.

Cruz’s success here had nothing to do with Romney.

I am LDS...and I (along with many people I know) was outraged by Romney’s antics.

See: My Open Letter to Mitt Romney
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3404778/posts

Cruz won in Idaho because most folks here view him as the most conservative of the candidates with a record of supporting the constitution and standing up against the GOPe.

It’s as simple as that.

Now, most people I know here in Idaho will also gladly support Trump should he win the nomination.

It is also as simple as that.

Both of those things...choosing Cruz in the primaries, and being willing to support Trump in the general have nothing to do with “Mormonism.”

[erkelly]

I am highly suspicious of these Cruz wins. Why is Cruz winning the caucuses when polls show Trump winning, and Trump wins the primaries just as the polls show him winning. Why are the polls accurate for the primaries and not the caucuses? If the caucuses supposedly show that Republicans prefer Trump to Cruz, then why did Trump win the Nevada caucus, taking almost half of the Republican vote? We are a closed caucus too!

When I look at the attack on Trump by Romney, when I look at Bush people and now Bushes joining the Cruz team, I think there is something wrong here. I think there is massive massive cheating at the caucuses, since the caucuses can be controlled by the establisment who hate Trump. I cannot fathom how Trump could lose every one of these recently, and by such large percentages, and yet win the primaries which are not controlled by the elites!

And I no longer believe Cruz is a Christian at all, or he would not countenance this!

We are being had, and Cruz is a Trojan horse.

[Wpin]

I totally believe you, but I think you understand that “along with many people I know” is not really a good measure of an entire state for various reasons.

I am glad to hear you say you were outraged, every American should be.

Guess I do not understand what would make Idaho so different from other states other than a Romney influence. I lived in Utah for 13 years...and been to Idaho many times...almost bought a hotel in Idaho Falls actually...

Great state and I admire the Mormon people, but they do tend to stick together and Romney was highly regarded (to me as well until his betrayal). I am rambling... :)

[poinq]

The problem with your charts is that you are not tracking time. You can’t show line charts without time. You should add the dates (or its easier to add week numbers starting from Feb.1) of each state primary to your spreadsheet and show a line chart from week to week. This shows momentum. You can show it cumulative or just added delegates. I think its also good to show percentages of delegates available in a given week.

[betty boop]

Thanks, Jeff, for this comprehensive report! Well done.

I agree with you about Marco Rubio, that he should step away but probably won't. I'm actually feeling very sorry for him.... I think he really messed up big time with his Don Rickles impersonation....

I'm looking forward to your next report of stats, after next Tuesday.

Thanks again for your excellent work!

[exit82]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_presidential_primaries,_2016#/media/File:Republican_Party_presidential_primaries_results_by_county,_2016.svg

Excellent county by county map of the primaries to date.