Posted on 03/09/2016 9:48:58 AM PST by Jeff Head
I will post another of these after next Tuesday's results.
Next Tuesday is going to advance things significantly IMHO.
IMHO, Rubio should get out before next Tuesday's vote...but I do not believe he can step away from it.
Latest data
There is no way Rubio gets out before Florida votes, though he should, he is not doing well by all accounts.
I am happy, my first choice and my second choice are in the lead for the nomination. So I am smiling. Unfortunately my first choice is still running behind my second choice... but the race isn’t over yet.
Same here.
But that means is that one way or another...the GOPe is taking a BIG *and well deserved) hit this election.
I mean, at the end of the day, while delegates are great, the ultimate prize is the White House, and knowing how candidates are performing not just in battleground states, but in ‘safe’ states would be important data for future prediction.
Of the states won by Shrillary, I see only four that could go her way in the General, and of those, only one certain (MA).
Since these are primaries, it is not too straight forward to make those comparisons...but we do have some evidence.
A couple of those.
Trump is bringing in A LOT of people. He is getting democrats to cross over and vote for him. Some of that may be political in terms of some hoping to make him the nominee...but I know for a fact that some of it is democrats who are sick of the establishment on both sides and believe Trump will shake all of that up.
In addition, his appeal to independents is strong.
Also,and I think this is important, IMHO it is very likely that Trump will put places like New York and other states where the GOP has not won there since Reagan, in play.
I will talk more about that as we get to those states.
But a clear trend is that the GOP is attracting a lot more excitement and voters in 2016. Right now there is a 60-40 split in terms of overall actual turnout. And that bodes very well too if they will also show up in November.
Do you know where I can find “detailed” information on the Michigan results? For instance, how Muslims voted and where.
Essentially, every demographic there is.
Hopefully, such a site would include other states as well.
CNN has a decent exit poll.
Here’s the GOP Michigan exit polls:
http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/mi/Rep
Here’s the DNC Michigan exit polls:
http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/mi/Dem
Does not include religion though.
Any data or chart anywhere that compares voter turnout (R and D) to 2012 and/or 2008 primaries? We keep hearing “record turnouts” — but data seems hard to find.
Visual/chart form might be very interesting.
It didn't happen...and when they did come in, it was closer to a 60-40 split, which was the shock of the evening.
Hopefully that'll get worse if she throws Cheryl Mills under the bus to cover her own ass on the emails.
Just a suggestion that may make the presentation more readable.
Get rid of the text centering and let it be left margin as in normal text.
Nice analysis. Two thoughts: There will be no indictment from the all Democrat Grand Jury or the all Democrat DOJ and AG. Second, delegate count not with standing, Trump is on track to get the nomination despite only getting 35% of the Republican vote, and with substantial opposition from many in the “other” 65%. It is difficult to see how anyone could/should get such a nomination without at least 50% support from Republican voters.
Good job, a bit biased towards Cruz but overall good for anyone to read. Thank you.
After reading it I would guess another way to put the analysis would be to say. Even after constant attack by establishment, PAC’s, Lobbyists, other Candidates, Media, etc. the American people loudly shout their preference TRUMP! Cruz’s only win was in the highly Mormon state of Idaho probably reflecting one of two states Romney actually hurt Trump.
That is a little more balanced don’t you think?
I am in Idaho.
Cruz’s success here had nothing to do with Romney.
I am LDS...and I (along with many people I know) was outraged by Romney’s antics.
See: My Open Letter to Mitt Romney
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3404778/posts
Cruz won in Idaho because most folks here view him as the most conservative of the candidates with a record of supporting the constitution and standing up against the GOPe.
It’s as simple as that.
Now, most people I know here in Idaho will also gladly support Trump should he win the nomination.
It is also as simple as that.
Both of those things...choosing Cruz in the primaries, and being willing to support Trump in the general have nothing to do with “Mormonism.”
I am highly suspicious of these Cruz wins. Why is Cruz winning the caucuses when polls show Trump winning, and Trump wins the primaries just as the polls show him winning. Why are the polls accurate for the primaries and not the caucuses? If the caucuses supposedly show that Republicans prefer Trump to Cruz, then why did Trump win the Nevada caucus, taking almost half of the Republican vote? We are a closed caucus too!
When I look at the attack on Trump by Romney, when I look at Bush people and now Bushes joining the Cruz team, I think there is something wrong here. I think there is massive massive cheating at the caucuses, since the caucuses can be controlled by the establisment who hate Trump. I cannot fathom how Trump could lose every one of these recently, and by such large percentages, and yet win the primaries which are not controlled by the elites!
And I no longer believe Cruz is a Christian at all, or he would not countenance this!
We are being had, and Cruz is a Trojan horse.
I totally believe you, but I think you understand that “along with many people I know” is not really a good measure of an entire state for various reasons.
I am glad to hear you say you were outraged, every American should be.
Guess I do not understand what would make Idaho so different from other states other than a Romney influence. I lived in Utah for 13 years...and been to Idaho many times...almost bought a hotel in Idaho Falls actually...
Great state and I admire the Mormon people, but they do tend to stick together and Romney was highly regarded (to me as well until his betrayal). I am rambling... :)
The problem with your charts is that you are not tracking time. You can’t show line charts without time. You should add the dates (or its easier to add week numbers starting from Feb.1) of each state primary to your spreadsheet and show a line chart from week to week. This shows momentum. You can show it cumulative or just added delegates. I think its also good to show percentages of delegates available in a given week.
I agree with you about Marco Rubio, that he should step away but probably won't. I'm actually feeling very sorry for him.... I think he really messed up big time with his Don Rickles impersonation....
I'm looking forward to your next report of stats, after next Tuesday.
Thanks again for your excellent work!
Excellent county by county map of the primaries to date.
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