Posted on 04/15/2016 7:07:41 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Marco Rubio won Minnesota decisively on March 1, but the 17 delegates he was awarded are now up for grabs, free to vote for any candidate they like on a first ballot at the Republican National Convention in Cleveland.
In a hotly contested Republican primary that looks increasingly likely to culminate in a contested convention this summer, those delegates will be critical. The battle for them is essentially throwing states such as Minnesota, which have already held their nominating contests, back into play as they elect delegates at state conventions. And Ted Cruzs campaign, which has run circles around Donald Trumps in the behind-the-scenes battle to elect friendly delegates from states that arent holding primaries or caucuses, is also a step ahead in the fight for the Rubio delegates who will be free to give him an extra boost on a first ballot at the convention.
Minnesota hasnt elected its delegates yet, but the states Republican-party chairman, Keith Downey, is already steeling himself for blowback from Trump supporters if and when Cruz emerges from his state with the lions share of the delegates.
If somebody didnt educate themselves on that process, or they werent very good at working through that process, so be it, he says. Thats life, and thats politics.
Of the 171 delegates Rubio won before dropping out of the race, the 17 he took home in Minnesota, the twelve in Oklahoma, and the two he picked up in New Hampshire are now free agents. In Minnesota and Oklahoma, Rubios delegates are obligated only to cast a ballot for him if he is formally nominated, while in New Hampshire theyre entirely unbound.
Our state rules say if someone is not on the ballot, they are free to vote for whomever they choose, Oklahoma GOP chairwoman Pam Pollard told NBC News. Cruz won Oklahoma handily on March 1, but Rubio also received twelve delegates for his third-place showing. A Cruz campaign aide says the team has mounted a very aggressive effort to win over delegates in every state, including Minnesota and Oklahoma. A spokesman for the Trump campaign did not respond to a request for comment about its efforts on the ground in the two states.
Since both Minnesota and Oklahoma have yet to choose their delegates, they offer the campaigns fertile ground to rack up new supporters. Cruz is taking advantage of the opportunity. Jeff Johnson, who served as Rubios campaign manager in Minnesota but has since endorsed Cruz, says that much of Rubios organization in the state has mobilized behind Cruz, helping his campaign as it works to woo delegate candidates. That organization is still in place, were just kind of adding to it, he says of Rubios infrastructure in the state. Were joining.
In both states, delegates will be chosen through a series of congressional-district conventions held over the next month and a half before a final convention in May. The elaborate process will benefit campaigns that have extensive, well-established statewide organizations organizations that several state Republican officials say only the Cruz campaign possesses.
Minnesota GOP officials say the Cruz campaign is working to win over delegates, with a particular focus on those who are unbound. There have been a number of people, either via e-mail or at [local] conventions, campaigning specifically to be a national Cruz delegate, says Chris Tiedeman, the states Republican national committeeman. And there have been a number of them going to other conventions, other than their own local convention, to start campaigning for those spots now.
As it was in Colorado and North Dakota, which both elected unbound slates of delegates favorable to Cruz after forgoing primaries and caucuses entirely, it appears that the Trump campaign is being outmaneuvered on the ground in Oklahoma and Minnesota. Several Minnesota GOP officials say they dont know who is leading the pro-Trump effort in their state, and Tiedeman says theres little to suggest the real-estate mogul is doing anything to secure unbound delegates there. That doesnt mean its not happening, but I havent seen it anywhere Ive been, he says. And Ive been out and about quite a bit.
Theres a small chance Rubio could bind Minnesota and Oklahoma delegates to him on a first ballot that is, in the unlikely event his name appears on the ballot. But even if one assumes that the RNCs Rule 40(b) is amended to place Rubio in contention, Rubio supporters say its still unlikely he will appear on the ballot. (The rules currently require a candidate to secure a petition featuring the signature of a majority of the delegates from eight states in order to be nominated, and Rubio won only four states and territories.) Thats because collecting the signatures of a majority of the delegates in the required number of states would take a strong, organized effort on the ground in Cleveland, and Rubio is unlikely to pull it off.
According to one longtime RNC member, Just because you won a state doesnt necessarily mean youre going to have enough people in that delegate slate signing your petition. Its a matter of high panic even when youre Mitt Romney or George W. Bush. Its simply not something a non-candidate such as Rubio will do, he says, because, Getting the petitions is still a pain in the ass and an uncertain prospect.
Its not going to happen, says Johnson, Rubios Minnesota campaign chairman.
Rubio himself tipped his hand for the first time this week about which candidate hed like to see win the nomination. Though he stopped short of an official endorsement, he told radio talk-show host Mark Levin Tuesday that he wants a conservative nominee and that Cruz is the only candidate left who fits the criteria.
In a nail-biter, his delegates may help deliver Cruz the prize.
Brendan Bordelon is a political reporter for National Review. Eliana Johnson is the Washington editor of National Review.
Yea its a real nailbiter. LOL!
Trumpists keep saying this...but it simply isn't true.
So long as Trump is short of 1237, Cruz (and the field) aren't "done".
Cruz keeps dropping in the polls...the voters are turning against him. He can only make deals with some delegates. He will not win the nomination..totally impossible now but raises the question of why is he doing this?
He started out ok..great conservative senator but then went on to be Ron/Rand Paul weird as he adopted their followers...now he is waaay out there and folks just dont trust him. he couldnt even get over 50% in his home state.
Math doesnt look good for Cruz....its over.
The Wisconsin Democrats had to carry crLuzer over the finish line last week, because Hillary's "campaign" is on life support.
The Wisconsin numbers were just plain amusing. :)
My favorite part was Trump winning social conservative Rick Santorum's counties going away - while "social conservative" Cruz was winning social squish Romney's counties.
Not TOO obvious... LOL! :)
“The rules currently require a candidate to secure a petition featuring the signature of a majority of the delegates from eight states in order to be nominated ..” So, it is not enough that a candidate win a majority of delegates in a state. The candidate must also get these delegates to sign a petition. Maybe another one of those rules Trump will complain about or forget to do.
RE: Cruz keeps dropping in the polls...the voters are turning against him.
My issue is not with the polls but with how people want to see what they want to see in them. When the poll show that Trump has a 67% UN-favorability, his supporters call this poll BUNK even when more than one poll from other sources corroborates the most recent one.
So, if Cruz is dropping in the polls, and we should believe the polls, why should we not believe the polls when it shows a 67% disapproval?
Is it because we only want to believe what CONFIRMS what we already wish the results to be?
RE: ... raises the question of why is he doing this?
The answer is simple -— Because he wants to be the Republican nominee.
The more important question is this — Is he working within the publicly stated rules to become the Republican nominee? Are the rules spelled out clearly? Did he violate any of them with what he’s doing ? were these rules already in place long before the 2016 elections?
If he passes all the above test, I fail to see why people would call it cheating.
“So long as Trump is short of 1237, Cruz (and the field) aren’t “done”.”
“He will not win the nomination..totally impossible now but raises the question of why is he doing this?”
See Okie’s statement above. (Although I’m not sure who the “field” are, unless s/he’s so desperate that s/he thinks that at a Cleveland 3-ring circus the RNC is going to put a laurel wreath on the brow of Cruz, Rubio or another loser.)
You see it in counteless thread comments. Even Cruz’s supporters now recognize, and apparently ratify his role as—I’ve been using the word “spoiler” but it is no longer strong enough, so ... Cruz’s role assigned to him by his RNC masters is not just to stop Trump but—like McCain, Romney, Bush III, Rubio—to serve as their latest “conservative ****-blocker.”
Contested convention. `Ringer’ candidate, I’m thinking Ryan, since he’s blowing the same, “Oh my goodness, why, I could never ... “ coy smoke he blew when the Wisconsin Mini-me replaced Ohio’s Dr. Evil.
So there goes the WH and Senate, and McConnell, Ryan, Priebus & Co. keep their hoity-toity jobs; ominously, the stage is set for Obama’s CWII.
But the important thing is that Cruz’s overweening ambition is played-out to the bitter end, even if he has a snowball’s chance of winning.
RE: Math doesnt look good for Cruz....its over.
“It ain’t over till it’s over” — Yogi Berra
The proposal, which will top the agenda during a meeting of the Rules panel at the RNCs annual spring meeting in Hollywood Beach, Fla., would fundamentally alter how the convention is conducted, further empowering the delegates to determine the course of the proceedings.
It amounts to not just a changing of the rules but of the rulebook itself, with far-reaching implications, potentially impacting whether party insiders will be able to draft a so-called white knight someone currently not running who would play the role of savior at a deadlocked convention.
The proposal is the brainchild of Solomon Yue, an RNC officer and Rules Committee member from Oregon. It would replace the system used at Republican national conventions for decades, which mimic those used by the U.S. House of Representatives, with Roberts Rules of Order, a design thats often used to oversee civic and organizational meetings.
Some see the idea as a recipe for utter chaos, and one that could open the door to mischief-making. With thousands of delegates on hand, its easy to imagine a scenario where objections pile up, jamming up floor proceedings and turning the convention into a train wreck all before the eyes of a national audience.
RNC officials say Yue's plan is almost certain to be tabled until closer to the convention. But it will spark a months-long debate just as the scrutiny into the partys internal workings is intensifying.
The state delegation selection is run by the establishment in each state. They design it so they can be in control. Thats all you need to know.
The establishment should not even hold a primary because it tricks people into thinking they really have a choice in the selection of the candidates. Then when the voters find out they have been deceived, its not pretty. That is what is happening right now.
RE: The state delegation selection is run by the establishment in each state. They design it so they can be in control. Thats all you need to know.
It has ALWAYS been like this since the time of Lincoln. If you believe that it is unfair, then I suggest you either:
1) Go to a third party whose delegate selection process is more to your liking
or
2) Talk to the Republican Party of your state and suggest to them that they follow a delegate selection process that you believe is FAIRER than what they already have now.
Until then, this is what we have and if someone plays by these rules, rules which have already been spelled out in advanced, it is what it is. Just don’t call it cheating.
Personally, I don’t think that the winner take all states like Florida and Ohio are entirely fair either ( counties that went for a certain candidate are now forced to relinquish the candidate they favor because overall statewide, their candidate did not win the state ). But hey, rules are rules and Trump gets all of Florida and Kasich gets all of Ohio regardless of counties that went for Rubio or Cruz.
It has been estimated that Trump has won about 37% of the popular vote but has taken 42% of delegates. It seems that this system favors HIM.
Ken Cuccinelli got his slate of delegates in my state. Someone like me can’t go up against him. Dont be ridiculous! Its fixed!
RE: Ken Cuccinelli got his slate of delegates in my state. Someone like me cant go up against him. Dont be ridiculous! Its fixed!
If it’s fixed, then it looks like it’s:
1) Fixed before the primary elections began.
2) Fixed in favor of Trump. He got all of Florida but did not win all of the counties. He got 42% of delegates while winning just 37% of the popular votes.
Why was there no complaint about the rules BEFORE the primaries and why all the complaints only now?
It’s like complaining about the rules of a game only after it is played and the rule book was written.
The main thing is that when a candidate wins delegates in a primary those delegates should be his/hers permanently and not be subject to manipulation by the party. Its disenfranchising the will of the people. Ted Cruz will not have any respect if he wins this way.
Ted Cruz has lost 11 big percentage points in the latest Fox News poll. This is the reason.
So, are we back to contending that Trump should be awarded a “W” on the basis of a plurality?
>>If he passes all the above test, I fail to see why people would call it cheating.<<
People call it cheating because Trump calls it cheating, pure and simple. That doesn’t mean it’s cheating; it just means that some people will blindly follow their leader without question. In Trump’s case, unfortunately, it’s a whole lot of people.
The day is likely to come when Trump calls for violence of some form (other than the low-level violence he’s already overtly advocated, like punching out a protester) and you will be asking why, given the facts of the matter, people would resort to violence. Same answer: Dear Leader called for it.
Ironically, most of the people who would make threats in Trump’s name would recoil from the sort of violence that Obama has fomented over the past year or two. Yet the police force in Cleveland is no doubt just as worried about what Trump will say over the next few months as they are about what our President will say.
Populism leads to no good end. Hopefully GOP voters in the states still to vote will come to realize this and put an early end to Trumpism, although right now all it is is hope.
RE: Ted Cruz has lost 11 big percentage points in the latest Fox News poll. This is the reason
If Cruz loses the nomination and the rules that were clearly spelled out IN ADVANCE were followed, even as a Cruz supporter, I will concede that he did not win enough delegates within the rules to clinch the nomination.
I just wish that Trump supporters will abide by the same mindset and not keep shouting the ‘C’ word (i.e. CHEATING) if Trump does not become the nominee by the same rules that were spelled out in advance.
Cheat! Cheat! Cheat! Voters being disenfranchised by rules designed and created by the establishment for the sole purpose of manipulating the votes.
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