Skip to comments.My model shows Donald Trump has an 87 percent chance of beating Hillary Clinton
Posted on 07/28/2016 12:13:59 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
THE BOTTOM LINE ◾Donald Trump may be lucky to have picked an election in which change trumps experience. ◾When voters demand change, they are willing to overlook many foibles of the change candidate.
To be sure, Donald Trump, is a long shot in betting markets to win in November. PredictIt, a popular legal wagering website, gives Hillary Clinton a 66 percent chance to win the presidency. She has consistently led Trump in that market for three months, as well as in the Iowa Electronic Markets. And Trump has trailed Clinton with rare exceptions in the poll averages by RealClearPolitics and The Huffington Post.
So how can a reasonable person predict that Trump will be the next president?
For starters, pre-election polls have selected the wrong candidate many times. Who can forget Tom Dewey defeating Harry Truman in 1948 polls until he didnt? Or Michael Dukakis leading George H.W. Bush in 1988 by 17 points this time of year? Or Mitt Romney edging Barack Obama in the final Gallup poll four years ago?
My advice: Beware of pollsters bearing forecasts, especially anyone trying to peek into the future, especially those with money to bet.
Some 20 years ago, I constructed a formula, The Primary Model, that has predicted the winner of the popular vote in all five presidential elections since it was introduced. It is based on elections dating to 1912. The formula was wrong only once: The 1960 election. That one hurt because John F. Kennedy was my preferred candidate.
The Primary Model consists of two ingredients: The swing of the electoral pendulum, and the outcomes of primaries....
(Excerpt) Read more at newsday.com ...
Wait until Hillary screeches the greatest speech in modern history tonight.
which presidential candidate in the last 25 years has had more EXECUTIVE experience then Trump?
as a matter of fact, if you equate being governor to running a single large corporation, then i’m unsure if we’ve ever had someone with as much executive experience running for office
even Ross Perot hadn’t run as many corporations as Trump
I have something similar. Nixon did beat JFK in the popular vote. They count Alabama wrong
I was only at 86. Let’s go with yours.
Hillary is the worst candidate to ever run for president and was so bad that a Jr. Senator from Illinois with less than 2 years experience beat her the last time she ran. The only thing she has going for her is that 40+% of the population will vote for anyone with a “D” behind their name. I know it is 47% but I think what is in play this year is the 5-7% that are really normal Americans that still believe the democrat party is what their parents thought they were, and were raised that way, and not what it has morphed into.
Does the model take into account the massive voter fraud with no IDs that is going to happen this time?
...like a red-headed step child sitting on a dirty rug atop a rented mule.
Demographics are awful towards the side of self-government, the Dewey campaign was full of sloth and arrogance, Dukakis imploded due to emulating the Dewey ethos because of the polls as well as Horton/tank debacle/”muh cousin is a Hollywood actress”, and the vote fraud will be rampant because of so many different ways to vote (Electronic, loose absentee rules, early voting, etc...).
I say 50/50 until Election Day. Trump campaign must act like they are down by 10 and be aggressive as heck, especially concerning poll watchers on Election Day/constant communication with State authorities overseeing the election.
And Hillary has the media on her side.
Sorry, but Helmut Norpoth, what “experience” do you believe HILLARY!! possesses that trumps Trump?
Sorry, but Helmut Norpoth, what experience do you believe HILLARY!! possesses that trumps Trump?
It’s a Dem fairy tale talking point. Eisenhower was experienced. Hillary is just old.
You mean when change trump corruption & incompetence!
Everyone has a model that’s a true crystal ball as to who will win the election. I have one to that says Trump will win with 353 EV’s.
Truth is, none of us know what will happen November 8.
Whatever the polls show, whatever the models show, don’t take anything for granted. We need to approach this election on the assumption that we’ll have to fight for every vote right up until the polls close on election day. It’s better to fight hard and find out Trump won easily, than it would be to assume everything’s under control and there’s nothing to worry about, only to discover that we made a critical miscalculation. Fight ffor every vote!
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