Posted on 07/28/2016 12:13:59 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
THE BOTTOM LINE ◾Donald Trump may be lucky to have picked an election in which change trumps experience. ◾When voters demand change, they are willing to overlook many foibles of the change candidate.
To be sure, Donald Trump, is a long shot in betting markets to win in November. PredictIt, a popular legal wagering website, gives Hillary Clinton a 66 percent chance to win the presidency. She has consistently led Trump in that market for three months, as well as in the Iowa Electronic Markets. And Trump has trailed Clinton — with rare exceptions — in the poll averages by RealClearPolitics and The Huffington Post.
So how can a reasonable person predict that Trump will be the next president?
For starters, pre-election polls have selected the wrong candidate many times. Who can forget Tom Dewey defeating Harry Truman in 1948 polls — until he didn’t? Or Michael Dukakis leading George H.W. Bush in 1988 by 17 points this time of year? Or Mitt Romney edging Barack Obama in the final Gallup poll four years ago?
My advice: Beware of pollsters bearing forecasts, especially anyone trying to peek into the future, especially those with money to bet.
Some 20 years ago, I constructed a formula, The Primary Model, that has predicted the winner of the popular vote in all five presidential elections since it was introduced. It is based on elections dating to 1912. The formula was wrong only once: The 1960 election. That one hurt because John F. Kennedy was my preferred candidate.
The Primary Model consists of two ingredients: The swing of the electoral pendulum, and the outcomes of primaries....
(Excerpt) Read more at newsday.com ...
The 20th century saw televangelists taking on the mantle of fraud.
In the 21st century it is people with their own computer models predicting everything from election outcomes to stock markets.
I think there’s a lot of money to be made by betting on Trump with your liberal loser friends and coworkers. People just don’t understand Trump’s appeal. I keep hearing these pundits moan and wail when Trump talks off the top of his head. I find that to be his most effective quality. Sure he’s inconsistent on occasion. But so am I. So are you.
It is so refreshing to hear a candidate actually say what is on his mind without filtering it through focus groups and memorizing talking points.
The actions necessary to fix the biggest problems we currently suffer from are pretty obvious, and it doesn't take some type of super genius as President to figure them out for us. What we haven't had until Trump, though, is anyone with the WILL to actually do what is necessary. Trump has that in spades, and I think that's the primary reason he is so popular. People have had it with talk from the "experts" and the "experienced politicians", and now they just want ACTION.
I think Trump will win easily, but I agree with those who continue to remind us to fight like he's 10 points behind. I plan on doing whatever I can, right up until the moment the polls close.
-—”Donald Trump may be lucky to have picked an election in which change trumps experience”
The author needs to acknowledge that ANYTHING is better than “bad experience” and a bad track record.
how does one design a computer model that calculates in the vote fraud that will be needed for the hag to win?
I agree. The careful crafting of communications has gotten completely out of control, not only in politics but also within the corporate world (and of course, the marketing folks have been at it even longer). Every time I hear a politician carefully straining to say only the pre-rehearsed talking points, it reminds me of the idiocy that I witness every day working in a large organization. My current pet peeve is people who use the word "ask" as a noun (example: "What was the ask from that meeting?). How about using instead the perfectly fine (and grammatically correct) word "request?" Corporate speak is just a cover that is used when someone has little substance, and it makes those who use it feel "cool" and like part of the in-crowd. And for all those reasons it makes me want to vomit - it's so stupid and superficial.
I have the same reaction when brainless politicians try to fool people with deceptive messaging rather than just taking objectively beneficial action.
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I got 10-1 odds that Hillary will not be president. I put up $100 against a $1,000 payday.
You called it.......the amount of illegal/fraudulent voting will be historic.
“Reagan made this possible by winning re-election by a bigger margin than when he first got elected. That spells continuity, a desire for more of the same.”
This is a great point...now if you look at the 11 Battleground States .. http://www.270towin.com/ .. you will find that Obama lost voter share between 2008 and 2012 in every single Battleground state. The exact opposite of Reagan!
How can I wager a bet with them legally?
While so true, I watched Trump's press conference with reporters yesterday and he pretty much scolded them for looking past all the bad sides of Hillary. The press tried to trip up Trump but they were not able to. It was a thing of beauty to watch. We'll have to see if it makes a difference over time.
CGato
I have a buddy like that. Devout catholic and still a Democrat. I just don’t talk to him about politics.
I don’t think US citizens can.
I had a supervisor that worked me a couple of years ago and Catholic as well. He voted for Obama twice but cussed him everyday. Of course I was always obliged to remind him that he voted for the guy, not me...
...holding a baby seal.
Is this person taking book? Can I get in on the action?
Betting markets are based on the beliefs of those betting. How close those odds are to reality depends on the pool of bettors, who in this case are foreigners since it’s illegal to bet on elections in the US. And of course they are getting their info from the left-stream media, who have been wrong about Trump all along.
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