Posted on 07/07/2017 11:39:36 AM PDT by LS
As many of you know, I've been tracking voter registration changes since November in 11 battleground states. In some rust belt states, the population is decreasing, so both parties may see a decline, but the numbers represented below, whether actual increase or decline are the NET gains of Republicans over Democrats since November.
PA Rs +104,000 (this is one of the states in decline, but Ds are falling much faster. This represents an additional net R gain of 2k in just a month.
NM Rs +11,218
NC (these numbers only came up recently) Rs +61k
AZ Rs +9,200 (this is a gain of an additional 4k net just in the last month).
FL Rs +49k (FL has seen a consistent shift to Rs since November).
I haven’t watched indie numbers much: they gained almost as Ds lost in NV when I checked a couple of months ago.
But one of the states I just did-—can’t recall which-—showed an equal decline for I numbers in line with the other parties.
In other words, from that one state, no, the Dems are not just parking themselves in the “indie” bucket.
As I said in the methodology, if both parties gain, it’s shown as a “+R” or “+D” depending. If both parties fall, same thing.
So in NJ, both parties fell a lot, but Ds lost 40,000 more. So that was R+40k net change.
Several states show lower reg after a major election-—NC, PA.
AZ has increased. In some cases, the population is shrinking (i.e., PA, NJ). Regardless, there is no way to possibly spin these numbers as good for Ds in any way shape or form.
A month ago I did CA, OR, NV, NJ, CO, IA, MD, NJ, NH, and ME.
Only in CA, OR, and CO did Ds have a plus number. I didn’t include NH because it hasn’t been updated, and I haven’t yet gone back to IA, MD, NV, DE, NJ, or ME.
A couple of you have seen this, but are getting it because I updated the ping list.
Looked at it earlier. The numbers look positive.
They look outrageously good. PA saw another R+2000 shift in two months, AZ, 4,200 in just over a month.
Thanks for the update of those key states!
Great work. thank you.
If I could just get updated info on MN, WI, OH, VA we could tell immediately where the 2020 election is.
OH should post something within the next few months. The others don’t report by party.
Curious about North Carolina. Do you in any way take into account the unaffiliated voters?
I glanced at “I”s for one state-—can’t remember which-—I think NM. They had declined, so no reason to think that Ds are just becoming “I”s. But you’re welcome to go to the NC SecState site & look at November 2016 “I” and compare with June 2017.
NC’s unaffiliated number for 7-1-2017 is about 1/3 of their total registration.
I'm pretty convinced MN would have gone for Trump if he had just had a few more days.
President Trump's 2016 results in VA must be very encouraging, considering how close Hillary came to losing that state when they thought it was a "lock"...
Awesome stuff!
Thanks, LS
Please add me to your ping list. Thanks.
Thanks for info. What gives you confidence about California?
Looking forward to these other states. I left CO after 50 years in Denver. Really changed in last 2 decades. Moved to OK and much nicer people.
Federal Retirement isn't reduced. Social Security is.
Thanks for posting the link. Didn’t know about this. Not sure why this happens. Something earning income outside of the purview of social security mechanisms I guess.
Yeah but what is it compared to Nov 2016?
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