Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

The ‘Enthusiasm Gap’ Could Turn A Democratic Wave Into A Tsunami
fivethirtyeight ^

Posted on 03/15/2018 5:19:57 AM PDT by ChicagoConservative27

It’s a busy time of year, so we’ll keep this relatively short. But I wanted to echo and underscore a point made by FiveThirtyEight contributor Nathaniel Rakich in his article on Tuesday’s special election in Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District. One reason that the results are especially scary for Republicans — Democrat Conor Lamb is the apparent winner1 in a district that President Trump won by 20 percentage points — is because it came on reasonably high turnout, the sort of turnout one might expect in this year’s midterms.

As of early Wednesday morning, about 228,000 votes had been counted in the special election. That equals 62 percent of the 370,000 votes cast for the presidential candidates in the district in November 2016, according to data from Daily Kos Elections. That’s right in line with midterm turnout, which is typically 60 percent to 70 percent as high as turnout in presidential years.

Turnout was similarly high in December’s special Senate election in Alabama — 64 percent of presidential-year turnout in the state. That was also an impressive win for Democrats, albeit one with more mitigating circumstances.

(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.com ...


TOPICS: Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: 2018issues; 2018midterms; antitrump; bluewave; elections; enthusiasm; gop; wave
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-59 next last
To: ncalburt

Cause they hate Trump.


21 posted on 03/15/2018 5:49:43 AM PDT by babble-on
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 18 | View Replies]

To: babble-on

Show proof of these comments .

this sounds like Never Trump crap .


22 posted on 03/15/2018 5:50:49 AM PDT by ncalburt (Gop DC Globalists out themselves every day)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 16 | View Replies]

To: ChicagoConservative27

The new demo enthusiasm for draconian gun control is really going to hurt them in November.

Trump’s drive for ccws for trained teachers and staff will play quite well. Demos are not trying to solve the school violence problem but exacerbating the problem with the Promise program and other programs which are just plain crazy.


23 posted on 03/15/2018 5:50:53 AM PDT by buffaloguy (Bond arms Cowbot)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: babble-on

They hate a great economy and Stock Market .

What a bunch of Never Trump Globalist nonsense .


24 posted on 03/15/2018 5:52:17 AM PDT by ncalburt (Gop DC Globalists out themselves every day)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 21 | View Replies]

To: babble-on

The Dem fraud ran as a Pro Trump Dem .
Keep the Never trump BS .


25 posted on 03/15/2018 5:54:01 AM PDT by ncalburt (Gop DC Globalists out themselves every day)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 21 | View Replies]

To: Williams
They will stay home, even though the result will be catastrophic.

And people here will simply blame voter fraud.

26 posted on 03/15/2018 5:59:12 AM PDT by Drew68
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: SoFloFreeper
Roy Moore got something around 70% of Trump’s.

Try 50%.

Trump received 1.3 million votes in Alabama to Moore's 650,000. That's a massive difference.

27 posted on 03/15/2018 6:01:30 AM PDT by Drew68
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]

To: ChicagoConservative27

Rats are going to turn out in droves in November. They talk about it constantly. Their #1 goal is to take the House and impeach Trump; they are strongly motivated by that.


28 posted on 03/15/2018 6:01:54 AM PDT by ought-six (Multiculturalism is national suicide, and political correctness is the cyanide capsule.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SoFloFreeper

“Demon Rat voters showed up. Republicans didn’t.”

Exactly.


29 posted on 03/15/2018 6:04:25 AM PDT by ought-six (Multiculturalism is national suicide, and political correctness is the cyanide capsule.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]

To: babble-on

Never Trump BS.


30 posted on 03/15/2018 6:05:06 AM PDT by DarthVader ("The biggeest misconception on Free Republic is that the Deep State is invulnerable")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 16 | View Replies]

To: ScottinVA

“The difference is, the dems thirst for victory and have their goal of destroying Trump by all means necessary. First order of business in the next Congress will be drafting up impeachment orders.”

BINGO!


31 posted on 03/15/2018 6:05:36 AM PDT by ought-six (Multiculturalism is national suicide, and political correctness is the cyanide capsule.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 19 | View Replies]

To: ChicagoConservative27

Blue Wave talk upped to Blue tsunami now? PLEEEEEZE Democrats will run on raising taxes, attacking NRA supporting illegals over Americans; against the wall mocking Christians and conservatives Hate for Whites. The enthusiasm will be there BIGLY natie, BIGLY.
Take a look at the 70/30 ass kicking the evil donkey got in Tennessee State senate special. Dem ran as true Dem and look what happened.


32 posted on 03/15/2018 6:13:34 AM PDT by jmaroneps37 (Conservatism us truth. Liberalism is lies.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: ChicagoConservative27

Another b.s. article from FiveThirtyEight. Stick it


33 posted on 03/15/2018 6:30:16 AM PDT by acrolect
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: jmaroneps37
PLEEEEEZE Democrats will run on raising taxes, attacking NRA supporting illegals over Americans; against the wall mocking Christians and conservatives Hate for Whites.

Nope. Dead wrong.

They're going to run as Lamb did; populists opposing Pelosi and promising jobs. They won't have to answer uncomfortable questions about raising taxes, banning guns or amnesty for illegals because they won't be asked these questions.

And they certainly won't be campaigning on promises of impeachment.

34 posted on 03/15/2018 6:31:08 AM PDT by Drew68
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 32 | View Replies]

To: Williams
The problem with a two-party system is, if you want to kick 'em out, you have to send in the other guys.

There are still a lot of people here who do not grasp that:

1) Trump was not elected BECAUSE he ran as a Republican, he was elected IN SPITE OF THE FACT that he ran as a Republican, and
2) The ACTUALLY EXISTING Republicans, the ones who will be running for the 435 House seats in November, are hated as much, if not more so, that the Democrats are by normal Americans.

The Republican decision not to back Trump's play fully has doomed them.

35 posted on 03/15/2018 6:35:43 AM PDT by Jim Noble (Single payer is coming. Which kind do you like?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: ought-six
Rats are going to turn out in droves in November

Like they did in the Texas primaries last week? Where Ted Cruz managed to garner to the tune of a massive TWICE as many votes as the Democrat candidate for the US Senate, despite the fact that the GOP primary wasn't even competitive at all(Ted Cruz got over 80% of the GOP vote), meaning there was little reason for GOP voters to turn out?
Yet Ted Cruz alone got more votes than all the Democrats for US Senate on the Democratic side combined.
So far, Republicans have won 5 out of 6 US House of Representatives bye elections, counting PA 18. Don't look like a “blue wave” to me.

36 posted on 03/15/2018 6:36:21 AM PDT by SmokingJoe
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 28 | View Replies]

To: ChicagoConservative27

The RINO’s in Congress are doing everything they can to discourage Trump voters from voting by NOT keeping their campaign promises.


37 posted on 03/15/2018 6:39:58 AM PDT by jpsb
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: ChicagoConservative27
In late October 2016 “fivethirtyeight” had ILLary with a 95% chance of winning.
38 posted on 03/15/2018 6:41:50 AM PDT by Gay State Conservative (You Say "White Privilege"...I Say "Protestant Work Ethic")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: babble-on

Yeah?
How many US House of Representatives bye elections have the Democrats won so far then?
The Republicans have won FIVE so far.


39 posted on 03/15/2018 6:42:06 AM PDT by SmokingJoe
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 16 | View Replies]

To: SmokingJoe
the Gay left wing Dem fraud Nate does not appreciate your facts neither does the Left Wind Globalist media pack .

I do think Trump needs to set up an aggressive midterm election plan since Paul Ryan is not to be trusted .

Ryan is a Globalist Uniparty hack and would love to get rid of Trump .

40 posted on 03/15/2018 6:43:42 AM PDT by ncalburt (Gop DC Globalists out themselves every day)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 36 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-59 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson