Posted on 07/13/2018 2:22:05 PM PDT by yesthatjallen
Democrats hold a massive voter lead in states that require party registration, a gap of 12 million that could be key to whether the party takes control of the House and Senate in the fall midterm congressional elections, according to a new analysis.
Overall, 40 percent of voters in 31 party registration states are Democrats, 29 percent are Republicans, and 28 percent are independents, according to a new report of July numbers from the University of Virginias Center for Politics. The states include several with key battles over House seats such as California, New York, Florida, and Pennsylvania.
The lead is significant, said Rhodes Cooks analysis in Center Director Larry Sabatos Crystal Ball newsletter, because in the past presidential election the majority party in 24 of the 31 states won, especially among Republican states.
In 2016, Trump won 11 of 12 majority Republican states, and took six of 19 Democratic states, said the analysis.
Of note, some of the states with registered Democrat advantages, like Louisiana, Kentucky, and West Virginia, have been functionally Republican at the presidential level for at least 15 years, said Kyle Kondik, the managing editor of the Crystal Ball.
That could be good news for the Republicans in the upcoming election, a sign that just being majority Democrat does not mean voters are in lock step, said the report which highlighted the growth of independent voters.
But it also noted that as the nation becomes more partisan, declaring party membership is an affirmative political stand.
With the growth in independents, many voters seem to be saying to the two major parties: a pox on both your houses, wrote Cook.
ETC...
Bogus There are 12 states that dont report by party Texas for one
Bogus There are 12 states that dont report by party Texas for one
Ping
Example Texas: Come primary time you choose which primary you want to vote
in when you go to vote. You are bound by that choice until the next two year cycle
and it starts over. Texas also sends you a new voter registration card every two
years. It isn't supposed to be forwarded but returned to the registrar. At some
point they remove you from the eligible voter list.
If you go to the chart, these are exactly the same numbers I use every month.
The difference is, I calculate from 2016 how many the Ds have lost/gained vs. how many the Rs have lost/gained.
When you look at it that way, Rs have gained NET in every battleground state except CA.
Now, I’m wondering how they are showing D “registration gains” when in fact in ONLY three of these states-—AZ, NV, NM, NC, IA, PA, FL, NH, ME, DE, CO-—have the Ds actually gained any new registrations at all (13,000 in AZ, 100 in DE, about 1000 in CO). But in AZ, Rs have gained 30,000.
I suspect this article is jimmied around CA and NY, where indeed there have been large D registration increases (1m in CA as of last July when I quit tracking).
But notice also, they have NO real data at all on GA, TX, OH, MI, WI, or VA because those states do not register by party. So if they say they do, it’s a lie. TX would easily compensate for CA and GA, OH, etc would offset NY.
In short, there are big, big problems with this article.
In ALL
What are you seeing in New Mexico? I cannot remember if the show parties there.
Thx! I knew you’d have an accurate interpretation of this.
The internet will help you with info
Complicated analysis, but Democrats tend to have more registrations than Republicans (but many of these are Democrats in name only), and more new registration (given their advantage among young people), and Republicans tend to have more re-registrations (given their advantage among older people). Finally, Democrats have huge margins in California and New York, whereas Republicans are in competitive positions in mosts of the rest of the country.
Thanks.
That way I could vote against Hillary twice (once in the primary and once in the general).
They offered to give me a ride to the voting place. It was a great way to use their gas and resources that otherwise might have been used to bring others to the polls. Suckers.
I can tell people I'm a registered Democrat who voted for Trump. Plus, I get their materials in the mail, so I know their game plan.
Pollsters are also more likely to survey Democrats, so I can give them a piece of my mind, and they have to listen while I trash "my party's" candidates.
Doesn’t this mean that 60% of registered voters are not Democrats?
Indeed which is why this article is bogus.
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