Posted on 08/05/2018 8:12:18 PM PDT by bitt
One of the most difficult things to do is to predict Ohio politics. The state does not register by party until a person votes in an election. If you did not vote in the previous election, guess what? You get dumped into the “U” bin (“unaffiliated”) until you vote again.
Anyway, the numbers produced by the Ohio Secretary of State office are exceedingly inaccurate, at least according to my source, “The Accountant.” In 2016, the Accountant and my other Ohio source “OhioWan” were dead on, saying Trump would win big.
Actually, hold that thought: they weren’t dead on. They were low. Real low. In late September 2016 they told me Trump would win Ohio by “four or five.” I transmitted that info to Team Trump and urged the Trump team to get out of Ohio and spend time in Pennsylvania and Michigan. They listened. Meanwhile, as you know, Trump won Ohio by nine.
(Excerpt) Read more at bigleaguepolitics.com ...
Freeper LS
I tend to trust LS since he is right more times than not. I certainly hope he is right this time as well.
Larry knows
Detailed analysis, But it too relies heavily on conjecture and models.
Outstanding LS, outstanding!
https://twitter.com/LarrySchweikart/status/1026180605141114880
‘Please note in my previous thread on OH voter statistics, I was off by a decimal point (!!) in my “high turnout” model. This works much to the good of Rs. Now the high turnout would yield an R lead of about 467,000 and only leave 239,000 Us to offset, meaning Ds come up short.’
I surely hope he is right!
Good stuff - thanks.
It also relies on VOTER TURN OUT, and trusting the dims not to commit fraud.
Great stuff. Thanks Larry but now I have a headache.
You are 100% correct. It is all about voter enthusiasm. I of course voted for Trump in the last election though I had many doubts about my candidate.
Trump has exceeded all my expectations. He was to me my reluctant candidate. Today he is my candidate 1000%
This coming election in Ohio is a verdict on Trump not the local candidate. Trumps base support today is even stronger. The Republican will win.
Thanks for the good news, LS.
As long as Sherrod Brown loses.
Which is why I surmise our VSGPDJT is going to campaign 6 to 7 days a week starting on our about Sept 6th is my guess.
The question begs, does he do the 4 or 5 a day rally's for candidates at the end, and do them in places like NJ and MA where in NJ we have a Senate Race because Menendez is in trouble and I think the race to watch is Liz Warren v Geoff Deihl in MA.
If he campaigns like that and get's the Trumpian base out, the Dem's are not gonna know what hit them Nov 7th. Their reactions might be far worse than they were in 2016 if we run the table in the Senate especially....
My biggest worry remains voter fraud.
Well said, and that surely reflects the feelings of a lot of people at FR. I’m certainly one of them.
But there is still a contingent of steath Never-Trumpers here who have still not been convinced. Sad.
Even when they come around to supporting Trump, they always feel they have to condemn his personal behavior. Evangelicals have a word for that. It’s called the spirit of the Pharisee. We are all sinners, and it is repugnant to me when Christians go all Pharisee on Trump. They can’t resist.
Or they criticize his style. Anything to make themselves feel superior to the President.
Interesting. Thanks very much.
This LS, but not the other one.
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