Posted on 09/07/2018 1:08:16 PM PDT by familyop
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows that 48% of Likely U.S. Voters approve of President Trump’s job performance. Fifty-two percent (52%) disapprove.
The wife and I NEVER answer pollsters. We view that activity as foolishly providing another data point for someone’s marketing or persuasion data base.
My question about polls is whether that attitude is evenly distributed across the political spectrum, or is increasingly found among conservatives and independents? I think it might be, and I think the pollsters are having a difficult time adjusting their “secret sauce” of weighting adjustments to reflect reality.
And, that comment is separate from my view that much polling is merely political advertising.
Trump is in far better shape than Obama at this point in time and that number will turnaround as the economy keeps stregthening.
Obama had no coattails and Obamacare was a lead weigh anchor around his party’s neck.
Trump has peace and prosperity and the clear horizon’s the future. And he has coattails.
Know this. Conservative don’t mess with pollsters. The last pollster i talked to refused to pay me, I said” Are you getting paid?” she said “yes”. I said “I want my share”. Why would you ever talk to a pollster unless you’re just lonely.
Because for the next while, stuffing your DVD player with titles like “Smokey and the Bandit”, “Hooper”, “White Lightening”, “The Longest Yard”, and even “Sharkey’s Machine” are probably better ways to spend your time as opposed to paying attention to the liver or fish that the media keeps on serving up.
I never get polled. Always had my number listed. Get telemarketing calls all day, every day and even on cell phone, but never political polls.
How does one even get called by a pollster? I’ve no land line and no one calls my cell. This is why I never trusted the polls last election.
I know more people without land lines than I know with. I don’t see where they get their data from.
That’s good to see. They showed a quick drop to 44 this week. Seemed to trend in other polls. I think he took a short term hit during the McCain as ‘savior of the universe’ celebration.
Amazing that he hasn’t taken a significant hit in the midst of never-ending, multi-front attacks.
Dubya folded under much less adversity. But Trump clearly advances a conservative-friendly agenda and that yields dividends.
I agree. I might answer a poll I knew but someone coming to the door or by phone . . .no
And we recently refused to be interviewed by a local reporter. Screw them
So yeah, the results are skewed
The truth is the polls tend to underestimate Trump’s strength. A lot of his suppprters don’t talk to pollsters.
We saw that in 2016 when the polls were were off like 15-20 points and they’re making the same mistake all over again.
The Left thinks America hates Trump and wants to throw him out. That wasn’t the impression I got last night from Billings, MT.
His rally was packed to the rafters. Trump has broad appeal in the heartland.
To rephrase Yogi Berra, “it ain’t over yet.”
I admit virtually all of my friends are deep red conservatives. I have asked all of them if they respond to polls. The answer across the board is “no.”.
While it's not the same thing, even I must admit to some reluctance in showing or voicing my support for the president in this environment.
The polls are way off.
Its complicated by the fact they poll lazy and easy to reach people with a landline phone, who not surprisingly, vote Democrat.
Getting an accurate and unbiased truly random voter sample is nearly impossible.
Most of the polls are simply GIGO and are just statistical noise.
Largely these polls are made up. They are fraud. They are simply contrived to fit a narrative, They are not valid. Some academic polls are an attempt to conduct fair polls. These are college political science class polls but they are on land lines? Who uses a land line? I never answer my cell unless I know you and if I don’t I immediately “block caller” Don’t you?
One of the tricks they use is to absurdly undercount Republican and independent conservative voters.
That doesnt match reality and they keep getting surprised.
And the daily torrent of non-stop Trump hatred clouds the real picture.
I am deaf and on my iPhone if you can’t reach me through Hangouts, I might as well not exist.
And I am an independent conservative, so that’s two demographics pollsters don’t reach.
I have never been polled.
And his opposition is completely bat-poop crazy.
Even if you don’t like Trump you dare not vote for the alternative.
The structure and process of polling has always favored the Democrats for many reasons. Urban dwellers are more likely to be contacted by polls and are more likely to respond, Democrats are always interested in “free stuff” and many think that they will cash in by responding to a poll. Less industrious citizens (Democrats) are more available and more willing to submit to pollster queries. So on and so on.
Good polls (read expensive) have models that account for these factors and more, especially the all important turnout model. These public polls don’t spend much money and don’t use a turnout model until very late in the cycle if ever. Private polls go only to the client that is paying the bill. These clients could release their poll results, but they almost never do so. That information is too valuable to let it loose in the wild. Rasmussen is useful to see trends and the trend has been flat all summer. Trump is doing fine, but voters haven’t made up their minds yet.
My guess is that they will make up their minds late this year, probably in the last month. But once Kavanaugh is confirmed and the Congress have passed all of the appropriation bills, and we know who is on the ballot, we’ll know how this one will turn out. Don’t be surprised if many Democrats decide that voting is not worth their valuable time, excepting those who are paid to show up at the polls.
I think that might be true, too. There is also the kind of voter who leans to the right on most issues and to the left on one or two issues (foreign relations, funding for some government offices,...). Some voters will probably complain much along the way but vote for the President again.
Some Republicans demand one or two hippie or socialist actions. Some Democrats demand some of the more brutal and sweeping tactics used by Stalin. But neither wants the opposition to take over.
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