Posted on 10/17/2018 8:59:43 AM PDT by Kaslin
If you're a regular reader, this trend doesn't come as a surprise. We've been tracking and flagging it since the Kavanaugh ordeal, which galvanized legions of previously-disengaged or underwhelmed GOP-leaning voters. We've demonstrated how that impact has continued to reverberate, particularly in Senate races. And now, the mainstream conventional wisdom appears to be catching up. Charlie Cook, who leads the vaunted Cook Political Report, is out with a new detailed analysis pointing to a clear uptick in Republicans' fortunes:
Charlie Cook: “One question that keeps coming back up is whether those who led the out-of-control demonstrations on Capitol Hill against the Kavanaugh nomination have any understanding of how much damage they did to Democrats” https://t.co/DfbkIhUmGo— Josh Kraushaar (@HotlineJosh) October 16, 2018
The most dramatic change over the last six weeks in the midterm election picture is clearly in the Senate, but the House situation has subtly changed as well. Not long ago, the most likely outcome for the Senate was either no net change at all, or a shift of one seat, so the Senate would remain under GOP control, with the majority holding 50-52 seats. Today, a Republican net gain of a seat or two seems most likely, moving the GOP up to either 52 or 53 seats, though a gain of three seats or no net change are entirely possible. There remains some chance of Democrats picking up two seats and a majority, but those odds are long, no better than 1 in 5, and seemingly getting longer...Once you saw Republicans and conservative voters coming home and getting energized for the first time this election cycle, on top of this lopsided Senate map of seats overwhelmingly in GOP-friendly states, Democrats' hopes went down precipitously.
In the House, Democrats remain heavily favored to capture a majority; the change is that their chances of blowing the House wide open with a gain of 40-50 seats or more have diminished. In the suburban-oriented districts where most of the competitive House races are, things remain extremely challenging for Republicans. A large gender gap driven by suburban, college-educated, and younger women remains a very strong dynamic. But the more rural- and small-town-oriented districts—those with substantial numbers of Republicans, conservatives, and Trump backers—are now fully awake and engaged, moving some of those districts back away from the edge of competitiveness. Republicans were looking quite vulnerable through the summer in districts that one would never guess they would have to worry about. Today, Democrats seem more in line to score a net gain of between 20 and 40 seats.
Three weeks out, the GOP looks like it has a real opportunity to improve upon its current Senate (bare) majority, and has perhaps put itself in a position to mitigate expected losses in the House. Some of these polls are undoubtedly too close for comfort (especially with the distinct possibility of undecideds stampeding toward the Democrats at the last minute), but they're vastly improved over the doomsday scenario some polling projected several months ago. Again, this is not to say that Republicans don't face some real struggles. But things could be, and have been, markedly worse. On the Senate side, the most endangered incumbent on either side is Democrat Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota. Already trailing considerably in the polls, Heitkamp's campaign committed a truly dreadful unforced error, publicly identifying a number of women -- some erroneously -- as survivors of assault against their consent. Cornered with concrete evidence of malfeasance, Heitkamp appeared on a conservative radio show in North Dakota yesterday, profusely apologizing for a "colossal" screw-up:
Heitkamp: "This is on me. This has got my name on it... The worse thing you can do is take away their privacy... And I did exactly that. And I need to personally apologize and say I was wrong... There's no sugarcoating this... This was a collosal error."— Phil Kerpen (@kerpen) October 16, 2018
This comes on the heels of her 'no' vote against Justice Kavanaugh, which flew in the face of the overwhelming sentiment of her constituents. And her explanations left a lot to be desired. Any hope she had of painting her opponent as insensitive toward female victims vanished when her own ad outed alleged victims without their permission. Meanwhile, I always view New Jersey Senate races as fool's gold for Republicans, but it's clear that national Democrats are getting anxious about scandal-plagued Bob Menendez's status in the Garden State:
Senate Majority PAC, leading Dem super PAC, going up w/ a $3 million statewide ad buy in the New Jersey Senate race -- their first spending in the race— David Wright (@DavidWright_CNN) October 16, 2018
Luckily for Bob, despite this brutal ad dropping on him this week, the cavalry is arriving to help. And by 'cavalry,' I mean Hillary Clinton doing what she does best -- raking in money. But perhaps this wasn't the best omen Team Menendez could have hoped for:
LIVE LOOK at @HillaryClinton trying to save @SenatorMenendez. (Spoiler alert: she crashes.) #NJSen pic.twitter.com/7poUpIYxl6— The Senate Majority (@NRSC) October 16, 2018
I'll leave you with this hilarious fake ad from the Free Beacon team, mashing up Krysten Sinema's damage control commercial with her various attacks against her own state:
Kyrsten Sinema’s new Arizona ad: Elect me Senator, you crazy meth heads. #AZSEN pic.twitter.com/Rcrql1hLjE— Free Beacon (@FreeBeacon) October 15, 2018
One careful statistical review shows Republican Martha McSally on the rise, but the media is doing what it can to run interference for Sinema -- including mischaracterizing an accurate line of criticism from McSally:
Not only did the Washington Post spell “Kyrsten Sinema” wrong, but they also got the quote completely wrong. McSally never accused Sinema of “treason.” She accused Sinema of “saying it’s okay to commit treason,” which is backed up by video evidence.
Delete this @washingtonpost. https://t.co/S7grQGOXsv— Caleb SkHull ?????? (@CalebJHull) October 16, 2018
Yes, Sinema told someone that she didn't object to the prospect of him joining the Taliban to take up arms against the United States. And, contra the best efforts of the hopeless spin artists at Politifact, it's also true that while McSally was bombing terrorists after 9/11, Sinema was protesting the Afghanistan war in a pink tutu. In fact, here's the ad again, just for good measure:
Sinema's post-9/11 radicalism is undeniable.
Or, How Urban Legends are made and grow.
Don’t believe one word that comes out of Charlie Cook’s mouth, and don’t believe one word that comes out of Larry Sabato’s mouth.
I love how Cook went from a blue wave tsunami(and that’s the word he had used) to his lower estimate now having the Republicans keeping the House.
8-15.
and 18 days from now Cook will say....
Republican chances are looking even better than they were 3 weeks ago.
Idiot is nothing but a DNC stooge.
Keep telling yourself this, fools.
I will not be surprised if the GOP picks up seats in the House and will romp and stomp in the Senate races. It may pick up as many as six seats: FL, ND, MO, WS, MI, OH and PA.
Just because the so called “wisdom” has the party in power always losing in the midterm election does not mean it has to be so. Remember this is a total different time and remember we have President Trump, who won’t allow it.
Its because he is relying on polling which is 2-3 weeks or more behind reality... Go look at RCP Senate polls... You have several races that haven’t had a poll posted in 3 weeks or more...
Even t hough clearly there has been a fundamental shift, particularly in red states... Yet, no polling in 3 weeks? Please.
If we keep hammering the Kavanaugh attempted lynching and point out the Demons total lack of integrity in bringing it on should bring big results and has.
I have said from the get go, long before Kavanaugh, and the Dems going completely crazy that the GOP should gain 6+... And if the winds blow just right they could hit double digits....
The Kavanaugh fiasco, and the further left wing crazy have certainly done their part to move those winds closer and closer to “Just Right”.
Gop only gaining one or two seats is ludicrous on its face... The saddest part of this cycle to me, is the GOP isn’t even trying to fight for any of the upper midwest.... in this environment, the GOP should EASILY take 2 of the Senate seats in the states Trump flipped up here, but they aren’t even fighting for them.
Baloney. There will be no GOP switches.
Hawley?
I am curious about your Renacci numbers in OH. I always thought Sherrod Brown should be a prime target for the GOP, and that race has not received much coverage.
I agree. WI and MI should have been easy GOP pickups as should the Franken seat in MN. Shouldn’t settle for ND, MO and maybe IN. All were seats Romney blew in ‘12 which Trump can return to us. Enough seats to mostly neuter our remaining RINOs.
I am with you there. States like Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania should have been ground zero prime pickup opportunities given the new electoral map. Instead, the GOP is not fighting for them.
Oh brother. Can you imagine. Horrible thoughts.
If Cook is coming around, it must be looking good.
Josh Mandel had been planning a run for a couple of years, had a much higher name recognition, then, at the last minute dropped out. Word is that his wife put her foot down and said she would NOT go to DC.
Renacci was not seasoned enough, but he was the guy. He has, according to my sources, “a helluva ground game.” He has walkers everywhere.
He went from 30% name recognition (vs. Brown with 90%) to over 65% in a couple of weeks. Disregard national polls showing him down double digits. My guys on the ground consistently say he is inside of 3. They think the last Trump visit and maybe one more will put him over. Plus, OH has a massive GOP registration edge (300,000 after allocating out all the “indies” based on previous voting patterns).
I have Hawley as a pretty certain win.
I figured Brown would be in for a tough race. He is a card-carrying progressive in a state that Trump won handily in 2016. There has been very little polling of that race, and most of it is very old.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.