Posted on 10/17/2018 8:59:43 AM PDT by Kaslin
If you're a regular reader, this trend doesn't come as a surprise. We've been tracking and flagging it since the Kavanaugh ordeal, which galvanized legions of previously-disengaged or underwhelmed GOP-leaning voters. We've demonstrated how that impact has continued to reverberate, particularly in Senate races. And now, the mainstream conventional wisdom appears to be catching up. Charlie Cook, who leads the vaunted Cook Political Report, is out with a new detailed analysis pointing to a clear uptick in Republicans' fortunes:
Charlie Cook: “One question that keeps coming back up is whether those who led the out-of-control demonstrations on Capitol Hill against the Kavanaugh nomination have any understanding of how much damage they did to Democrats” https://t.co/DfbkIhUmGo— Josh Kraushaar (@HotlineJosh) October 16, 2018
The most dramatic change over the last six weeks in the midterm election picture is clearly in the Senate, but the House situation has subtly changed as well. Not long ago, the most likely outcome for the Senate was either no net change at all, or a shift of one seat, so the Senate would remain under GOP control, with the majority holding 50-52 seats. Today, a Republican net gain of a seat or two seems most likely, moving the GOP up to either 52 or 53 seats, though a gain of three seats or no net change are entirely possible. There remains some chance of Democrats picking up two seats and a majority, but those odds are long, no better than 1 in 5, and seemingly getting longer...Once you saw Republicans and conservative voters coming home and getting energized for the first time this election cycle, on top of this lopsided Senate map of seats overwhelmingly in GOP-friendly states, Democrats' hopes went down precipitously.
In the House, Democrats remain heavily favored to capture a majority; the change is that their chances of blowing the House wide open with a gain of 40-50 seats or more have diminished. In the suburban-oriented districts where most of the competitive House races are, things remain extremely challenging for Republicans. A large gender gap driven by suburban, college-educated, and younger women remains a very strong dynamic. But the more rural- and small-town-oriented districts—those with substantial numbers of Republicans, conservatives, and Trump backers—are now fully awake and engaged, moving some of those districts back away from the edge of competitiveness. Republicans were looking quite vulnerable through the summer in districts that one would never guess they would have to worry about. Today, Democrats seem more in line to score a net gain of between 20 and 40 seats.
Three weeks out, the GOP looks like it has a real opportunity to improve upon its current Senate (bare) majority, and has perhaps put itself in a position to mitigate expected losses in the House. Some of these polls are undoubtedly too close for comfort (especially with the distinct possibility of undecideds stampeding toward the Democrats at the last minute), but they're vastly improved over the doomsday scenario some polling projected several months ago. Again, this is not to say that Republicans don't face some real struggles. But things could be, and have been, markedly worse. On the Senate side, the most endangered incumbent on either side is Democrat Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota. Already trailing considerably in the polls, Heitkamp's campaign committed a truly dreadful unforced error, publicly identifying a number of women -- some erroneously -- as survivors of assault against their consent. Cornered with concrete evidence of malfeasance, Heitkamp appeared on a conservative radio show in North Dakota yesterday, profusely apologizing for a "colossal" screw-up:
Heitkamp: "This is on me. This has got my name on it... The worse thing you can do is take away their privacy... And I did exactly that. And I need to personally apologize and say I was wrong... There's no sugarcoating this... This was a collosal error."— Phil Kerpen (@kerpen) October 16, 2018
This comes on the heels of her 'no' vote against Justice Kavanaugh, which flew in the face of the overwhelming sentiment of her constituents. And her explanations left a lot to be desired. Any hope she had of painting her opponent as insensitive toward female victims vanished when her own ad outed alleged victims without their permission. Meanwhile, I always view New Jersey Senate races as fool's gold for Republicans, but it's clear that national Democrats are getting anxious about scandal-plagued Bob Menendez's status in the Garden State:
Senate Majority PAC, leading Dem super PAC, going up w/ a $3 million statewide ad buy in the New Jersey Senate race -- their first spending in the race— David Wright (@DavidWright_CNN) October 16, 2018
Luckily for Bob, despite this brutal ad dropping on him this week, the cavalry is arriving to help. And by 'cavalry,' I mean Hillary Clinton doing what she does best -- raking in money. But perhaps this wasn't the best omen Team Menendez could have hoped for:
LIVE LOOK at @HillaryClinton trying to save @SenatorMenendez. (Spoiler alert: she crashes.) #NJSen pic.twitter.com/7poUpIYxl6— The Senate Majority (@NRSC) October 16, 2018
I'll leave you with this hilarious fake ad from the Free Beacon team, mashing up Krysten Sinema's damage control commercial with her various attacks against her own state:
Kyrsten Sinema’s new Arizona ad: Elect me Senator, you crazy meth heads. #AZSEN pic.twitter.com/Rcrql1hLjE— Free Beacon (@FreeBeacon) October 15, 2018
One careful statistical review shows Republican Martha McSally on the rise, but the media is doing what it can to run interference for Sinema -- including mischaracterizing an accurate line of criticism from McSally:
Not only did the Washington Post spell “Kyrsten Sinema” wrong, but they also got the quote completely wrong. McSally never accused Sinema of “treason.” She accused Sinema of “saying it’s okay to commit treason,” which is backed up by video evidence.
Delete this @washingtonpost. https://t.co/S7grQGOXsv— Caleb SkHull ?????? (@CalebJHull) October 16, 2018
Yes, Sinema told someone that she didn't object to the prospect of him joining the Taliban to take up arms against the United States. And, contra the best efforts of the hopeless spin artists at Politifact, it's also true that while McSally was bombing terrorists after 9/11, Sinema was protesting the Afghanistan war in a pink tutu. In fact, here's the ad again, just for good measure:
Sinema's post-9/11 radicalism is undeniable.
Good to see that OH is going to be contested. It really burns me that Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania were not highly contested races. I am hoping for an upset in one of those races.
Its not so much the new “electoral map”, as much as the weak weak candidates...
Casey should be a cakewalk to take out, but the GOP isn’t even trying.. Lou is clearly the better candidate, but with no money and terrible messaging, not a shot in hell he is going to win.
The GOP seems to not want to learn the lessons of Trump.. what little messaging they offer up here, just isn’t going to win them anything... You can’t run a campaign here like you can in the deep south... simply calling the D names isn’t going to win here.
Sorry, Senior moment and the GOP guy’s name escaped me.
I grew up in PA, and Casey should have been a prime target. Barletta is a good candidate from the working class northeast, but the messaging has been very poor.
LS, where did you get the early Ohio numbers? I am curious to keep track.
""Meg Whitman ran for governor of California in the 2010 election and her campaign was largely self-funded. She spent more of her own money on this effort than any other self-funded political candidate in U.S. history[7] and ultimately lost to Jerry Brown.""
Whitman didn't lose because the was Republican. She lost because she was employing illegal aliens, lied about it then was proven a liar. Tens of thousands of Republicans just stay home and refused to vote for that poser.
And btw, Clinton outspent Trump big league from Trump's $285 million, compared to Clinton's $609 !!!
:) You can’t.
They are proprietary. I work with a couple of guys in OH, “Ohio Wan” and “The Accountant,” who have unique access and who have done unprecedented work on analyzing Ohio “unaffiliated” voters.
Messaging throughout the entire upper midwest has been absolutely WRONG....
PA18 and OH12 should have told the GOP ecosphere that, but they are just tone deaf...
Thanks LS, I thought maybe there was a website with the data similar to Florida. That explains why I have been unable to find it for Ohio!
Another race that is flying under the radar is the Baldwin-Vukmir race. Remember that everyone had Ron Johnson losing handily in the polls in 2016. Walker is on the top of the ballot, how many ballot splitters will there be?
True. I said if Walker wins by 5, she has a chance, but Johnson was an incumbent. Big difference. And NO dirt yet on Baldwin.
OH Sec State does post absentee #s, but unless you have a way (as we do) of accounting for the huge #of “unaffiliated” voters, it won’t do you any good. These are NOT “indies.” In OH if you don’t vote in the previous election, including a primary, the SecState considers you a “U.”
Because Orangeman bad! Duh.
I guarantee that if there are 6 races too close to call that the Democrat candidate will win all six.
Well slap me upside the head! Duh!
The word was that she was battling an illness and he then dropped out of the race. He had been planning to run for 6 years in a rematch - he had already ran against him before in 2012 and was married to the same person then without apparently being told she would not go to DC. It is a shame as this time around he was outpolling him.
Right. It’s his choice, and if he put family first, good for him.
Personally, I’m NOT sure he was the “shoo-in” everyone else thinks. I think it would be the same battle as Renacci is fighting.
Case in point:
I left the GOP when the Senate refused to have a real trial with witnesses for Bill Xlinton.
Then around 2008 I simply quit voting.
I came out of voter retirement to cast one vote in 2016 and that was for Donald Trump. Not Republicans.
I had planned on sitting out the midterms.
However as things progressed through the Senate Confirmation hearings coupled with the mob thuggery I made the decision to vote in the midterms.
In that I re-registered in 2016 without any party affiliation I couldn’t vote straight ticket. So I mailed in my absentee ballot last week having gone down the entire list voting “against” every Democrat up for election.
I dislike the GOP only marginally less than the Democrats. But I did vote and a true “independent”.
I would like to believe there are many others out there is the same position.
Donald Trump is the last, best hope for the Republic, imho.
I only wish someone could convince him to post to Twitter about 90% less than he is.
But I ain’t holding my breath on that one.
The thought of Corrupt Maxine Waters chairing the Finance committee should be enough for R’s to stampede to the polls.
There is NO WAY we gain and keep the senate and lose the house NO WAY!!!!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.