Posted on 06/19/2019 9:50:22 AM PDT by Kaslin
President Donald J. Trump shocked many with his 2016 victory, particularly those who believed the polls that the mainstream media continuously pushed as proof there was simply no way that the real estate mogul could knock off the self-appointed heir-apparent Hillary Clinton for the presidency. However, he did win and did so in a dominating fashion. The polls were wrong in large part, Trump's 2020 campaign manager Brad Parscale argues, because the polling methodology is outdated and cannot capture the diversity of opinions through the American electorate.
"The country is too complex now just to call a couple of hundred people and ask them what they think. There are so many ways, and different people that are gonna show up to vote now," Pascale told CNS News Washington Chief Correspondent Major Garrett in an exclusive interview. "The way turnout now works, the abilities that we have to turn out voters – the polling can't understand that. And that's why it was so wrong in 2016. It was 100% wrong. Nobody got it right. Not one public poll."
Recently, several polls show that President Trump would lose to numerous Democratic candidates if held today. "None of these polls mean anything," Parscale rebutted. "It's the biggest joke in politics. It's the fakest thing. It's the fakest thing."
Internal campaign polls as well showed that the president was losing to current 2020 Democratic primary candidates, but campaign spokespeople clarified these were "worst case scenario" polls and also outdated. Spokeswoman Kayleigh McEnany told "Fox & Friends" that "those numbers were accurate," but "they were from three months ago, they were pre-Mueller report, they were the worst-case scenario and the most unfavorable turnout model."
"All news about the president's polling is completely false," Parscale said in a separate interview. "The president's new polling is extraordinary and his numbers have never been better."
Whatever the current polling, President Trump surely does not seem to be lacking enthusiasm from his base. As Townhall covered earlier, the incumbent president raised an astounding $24.8 million yesterday and attracted more than 100,000 supporters to his Orlando re-election rally.
Second only to the politicians themselves.
The more discredited polls become, the easier it becomes to eliminate phony politicians who rely on them. They’ll have to find some other phony trick to rely on.
That's fine and dandy, but the lazy inept media relies on fake polls to support their fake news and leftist indoctrination -
‘Closer to election day they are better.’
true; I knew the election was up for grabs when RCP showed Clinton garnering 273 EV’s a week out from the election...compared to the 300 plus she had throughout the campaign...
“I wonder if a pollster could use crowd turn out at campaign rallies as a measure other than robo calls.”
I think you have hit on a huge predictor. But the problem for pollers is they won’t get paid much for taking a picture and estimating a crowd. Biden has trouble filling three rows of tables at the VFW while Trump can fill stadiums with standing room only. (You’re the thread winner.)
It presents an interesting mathematical challenge. I suspect that if it could be “figured out” that the polling agent would be FAR more accurate.
But how to turn into a profitable enterprise? That level of analysis cant be cheap.
Poll: Gillum leads DeSantis by 7 points in Florida governor race
Estimating crowd size is a settled science. (Probably the only thing you can write about science being “settled.) Making money out of it...well, not so much. Settled, I mean.
Yup... voter fraud is the only threat to Trump’s re-election. Those found guilty of voter fraud, should go to prison for a long time.
President Trump has this great ability to make his haters irrelevant!
His “surprise victory” in 2016 proved the pollsters were irrelevant and were BSers as much as the left wingers and faux conservatives on ABCNNBCBS who hate him 24/7.
They will be totally irrelevant before he is reelected in 2020!
Polling companies make money on repeat customers. The entire corporate media is hard core cultural marxist. When political season comes around, the polling companies are incentivized to give their customers the answers they desire to push the narrative of selecting who they want to run the country. Most of these companies also probably reside in the same coastal urban zones and are buddies with the corporate media which just amplifies their confirmation bias, after all Hillary was a +90% slam-dunk winner .. and they actually believed the +90% number and were celebrating it until the returns began coming in.
Crowd size yes. But how many are supporters vs protesters vs news vs cops?
How do you normalize the data set when one candidate goes to 100 venues and draws 100 people each and a different candidate goes to 50 venues and draws 200 people each?
Do you normalize for a hot / rainy / snow day?
Do you normalize for time of day? Day of week?
And the more they do, the more they’ll end up with egg on their face. It’s no longer working.
Is this a trick question?
That's all you need to hear right there.
As someone said once, I think correctly, that polls are not there to measure opinions, but to drive them.
Recent polls demonstrate this.
Of course not.
No. Liberals are
When polls are discussed, I mute the TV, regardless if it’s Fox, CBN, or otherwise.
A fake excuse from the fake news.
The truth is:
1. A sizable portion of the electorate refuses outright to be polled at all.
And 2. A small but not inconsequential portion of the remaining electorate intentionally lies when polled.
Thus polls have become worthless.
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