Skip to comments.Recession indicator with perfect track record flashing red.
Posted on 08/14/2019 5:00:12 AM PDT by carriage_hill
Moody's Capital Markets Chief Economist John Lonski on the U.S. trade tensions with China and concerns about the U.S. economic outlook. The yield curve is blaring a recession warning.
The spread between the U.S. 2-year and 10-year yields on Wednesday turned negative for the first time since 2007. Such a development has occurred ahead of each and every U.S. recession of the last 50 years, sometimes leading by as much as 24 months.
This is not looking stable at all.
One day of an inversion is not a recession indicator. Give it two weeks or a month, and then it will be indicative.
Plus...the stock market is NOT the economy.
It’s time to start talking down the economy. The powers that be want to blame something on Trump. Get people despairing and ready for a change.
What color did it turn when BHO was in office?
If the event signaled by this indicator sometimes occurred TWO YEARS LATER, then is it really an indicator at all? That's eight quarters worth of GDP figures there.
If I bet on one NFL game every week next season, nobody is going to call me a football expert if it takes me up to eight weeks to win a single bet.
We have a winner. We will be hearing more of these stories over the next year whether based in fact or not. The democrats can’t run against the economy so they will try to either destroy it or make people believe it’s collapsing. It’s all they’ve got.
With energy prices low and taxes down I’m still feeling pretty optimistic.
I bet all the liberal pundits are giddy.
I will give it 2 months, and then probably convert my IRAs to cash, within the IRAs, and let it all sit. No withdrawls, no penalty. Same with other investments. I took a 50% hit back in 2010.
My guy at Fidelity told me last year that they are planning on a recession in 2020. Planning? I asked. Yeah, it’s inevitable, is what I was told. Hmm, election, is what I thought.
I think everything is going to be O.K. If markets and economics could be predicted there would be a shortage of 100 foot yachts.
Great observation. Are we sure that a recession for the election isn't just somebody's wishful thinking?
The leftists/socialists/anarchists/commies/demonkkkRATs are doing everything they can to drive the US markets and economy into the dumps, before 2020.
They’re trained that there MUST always be a recession after a decent growth period. What they’re not trained in is the effect of external political develops on creating recessions. Consider:
1a) Early 1970s - Clean Air Act, Clean Water Act, Civil Rights Act (a bit earlier, but kicking in), Arab Oil Embargo
1b) Mid to late 1970s - Economy crashes
2a) Early 1980s - Reagan-style Deregulation
2b) Mid 1980s - Economy grows like mad
3a) Early 1990 - Kinder, Gentler, America results in massively expensive updates to the Clean Air and Clean Water Acts, the Wheelchair Act, and more Civil Rights stuff
3b) 1992 - Worst economy in the last 50 years (not quite that bad, but yes, a recession)
3c) Mid 1990s - Economy left alone - grows strongly
Late 2010’s: Massive deregulation and other pro-business policies
2020: Take a guess.
This will be pushed by MSM and all the democrat liberal talking heads. This is a democrat manufactured talking point.... it is all they have... hurt the people and say it is all Trump’s fault. I have been amazed at all the democrats and liberal talking heads making up and telling lies over and over.
Oh it’s going south there is way too much junk food in the lunch room at work for the engineers. It gets like this before a big crash. At least the last two times
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