Skip to comments.Is Iran really leaving Syria?
Posted on 05/08/2020 2:00:25 AM PDT by BeauBo
Earlier this week senior defense officials in Israel announced that after years of Israels war-between-war campaign to drive Iran out of Syria, the Islamic Republic was finally withdrawing from the war-torn country.
The news came just hours after an airstrike blamed on Israel targeted a research facility in Aleppo in Syrias north.
But the announcement also came as Iran is still regrouping from the targeted killing of Quds force commander Qasem Soleimani in January and as it continues to deal with the ongoing coronavirus pandemic and a disastrous economic crisis hitting the country...
Almost on a weekly occurrence foreign publications are reporting airstrikes- from the Golan Heights on Israels northern border to deep inside Syrian territory like Al Bukamal on the Iraqi border to Aleppo in the countrys north on Monday night.
The increase of tempo of strikes as well as the distance of the location of the strikes, deep inside Syria, a senior defense official said, are what is pushing Iran to withdraw its forces and close bases across the country.
Independently, Iranian-backed Shiite militias have also begun to withdraw from Syria as the civil war continues to wind down...
The death of Solemani... was a major strike to Irans plans...
But even if Iran and the militias leave, they have been laying down local infrastructure so that Iranian blood doesnt need to be lost. The locals who align with them can fight against Israel and will pay the price.
Hezbollah has also been investing significant amounts of manpower and time into Syria and has been reported to be embedding itself into the Syrian Arab Army in order to guarantee its survival in the country.
So while the Iranians may be leaving, the reason behind their withdrawal may be more complicated than just Israeli airstrikes.
(Excerpt) Read more at jpost.com ...
More likely it is shifting to a new phase, where Iran relies more on domestic Syrian recruits and agents, and guides local surrogate organizations to survive off of the income of local rackets.
Still, they are being set back significantly, from the great momentum they experienced under Solemani's tenure - and every bit is a good thing.
[ Is Iran really leaving Syria? ]
Ahem...They’ll be back...
We don’t don’t the aftermath of COVID-19 in Iran. Low oil prices didn’t help them nor did the locust invasion.
They may be back. If so it won’t be in a few months. More likely a couple of years which allows time for their targets to bolster their nations.
More likely it is shifting to a new phase>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
The Iranian mulahs have been weakened but they continue to poison the whole of Persia and as they get weaker, they become more dangerous.
Lets hope that patriotic Persians rise up against the Red Guard and the dirty old men who create this theocracy.
But right now the mullahs are convinced that their trial and tribulations are a sign that the 12th Imam is about to return.They listen at the well into which he disappeared and hear noises of rejuvenation and return ( camel farts and such). This will turn them into suicide soldiers, and so we properly let them rot on the vine, wound up tighter than church clocks.
President Trump is brilliant in his strataegy.
Unknown to most, President Trump also has China on the ropes.
The Hezbollah troops will soon run out of money, given most of that and their armaments come from Iran, leaving only some Syrians
Trump put China in a box, loathed by its neighbors and isolated. The same thing he did to Iran and the democrats.
He's pretty good at this President thing. He is a hard enemy to have.
Iran probably cannot afford to maintain a conventional full scale military presence in Syria. Yet it would be a mistake to believe that their activities in Syria will come to a complete halt. There is little doubt that Iran positioned Chinese made medium range mobile missiles targeting Israel in the remote Syrian wilderness. Now its up to Mossad to find them and destroy them.
He’s pretty good at this President thing. He is a hard enemy to have.>>>>>>
President Trump is an excellent strategist.
But soon he may have to have a shoot out at the OK corall.
It will be fast, surprising and shocking when it happens.
The question is will it be in the Spratly Islands or in the Straights of Hormuz, or both.
We will have to see.
Both Iran and China will attack at some point. Huge mistake. President Trump will deep six the lot.
I think the country will support the president. We are ready.
The fact that they pumped up the production of oil was not to hurt the oil drillers in the US. They stated they wanted to punish Russia for not keeping to their agreed oil production. The real target was IRAN. Please remember that Iran shot missiles into the Kingdom less than a year ago. The Saudis never responded militarily at least as we know. They responded economically by trying to crush them when they were also hit hard by the Wuhan Flu.
“Looks like Iranian expansion in Syria is faltering”
I don’t think it is faltering. I think it is a sign of success, success at embedding Iran’s Syrian and Hezbolla allies into the Syrian official military organs and Syrian government institutions. The embeds are in tons positions both high and low. Someday they may have the ability to displace Assad, and Assad will not be able to go to Syrian Sunni groups for support as they dominate the Syrian opposition to Assad. He will have to take asylum in Russia. Iran and Russia will have converted Syria into their joint protectorate on the Mediterranean. And Assad, who invited them in, will be the loser.
As usual, Syria remains complicated. The fighting continues to shift.
Assad/Syria/Russians are fully committed to the war in N Syria with Turkey. Iranian fighters and shia militants from Iraq are concentrated to that fight.
That leaves S Syria/Hezbollah relatively wide open to Israeli air raids. And they are very effective. Iranian war materiel is being degraded as fast as it shows along with the trained operators.
Iran’s failed economy is making it politically difficult to keep spending money in Syria. Iranians are largely turning away from that war.
However, the Quds force has many independent sources of funding so that supply goes on.
Iraqi, Iranian led militias are still heavily committed to fighting ISIS in W Iraq. Should ISIS be fully degraded, those fighters will likely shift to Syria. More importantly that will open up the rat lines into Syria so that Iranian war material can more stealthily get in country.
Iran is still regrouping from the targeted killing of Quds force commander Qasem Soleimani in January and as it continues to deal with the ongoing coronavirus pandemic and a disastrous economic crisis hitting the country...
Sounds like the hereditary despot is going to be forced back into the loving arms of the Putin dwarf. Once Iran is no longer in a position to boss around Assad -- something that must have stuck in his craw -- Syria, Russia, and Israel can knock the Iranian proxies (which are a threat to all) right out of Lebanon for good. Won't help Lebanon that much, but a subsequent assassination of Assad would help that.
I don’t disagree with your statements.
Even so, I think everything is tending to degrade the long term importance of Assad. I think without the Sunni dominated “Syrian opposition” gaining anything, the various forces that are not Assad’s that are being backed by Iran and Russia will in time (????) be able to officially displace Assad, as a figurehead they will no longer need - they will be stronger than Assad, they will be Shia dominant and Assad will not have Sunni Syrians to call on for help. The beneficiaries of those forces reaching that state will be Iran and Russia. They will jointly arrange a replacement for Assad. He will go into exile.
Syria is effectively partitioned now. What is left to resolve is Assad’s hold on the northern enclaves under attack by Turkey. They may get partitioned away to Turkey and its militias.
That would be a critical loss to Assad’s push to hold onto NE Syrian territories along the Turkish border. Those are currently patrolled by Russia and are quiet for now.
Turkey has made a very risky move into the Libyan fight and it is bogging them down. Turkey also is staying away from the Russian-manned air defenses in N Syria.
If the Turkish fight remains a stalemate and Assad continues to hold onto Alawite and Christian and Russian support, he can hang on, whether Iran support remains.
Russia is desperate for their Syrian base at Tartus and is gradually moving more assets into the Med. I think that settling the ISIS fight in W Iraq will be the next tipping point.
“[ Is Iran really leaving Syria? ]
Ahem...Theyll be back...”
Especially when a dimoKKKRAT becomes President Of the U.S.
I don’t think they’re actually leaving. LOL!
Post rapture that region will explode.
Whether this is a long- or a short-term move, the move itself is undeniable. And yes, it’s complicated. Unmentioned in the article is that those troops may be needed elsewhere - during the Green Revolution of 2009 Iran imported a lot of foreign muscle as well as recalling much of its own to provide internal security through the Bassij. Internal conditions in Iran continue to destabilize as a result of disease, crop failure, and especially the loss of oil income, itself due to the joint challenge of a diminution of Chinese demand and drastically lower prices. If the mullahs do have to fight it out, it will be in Tehran, not Aleppo.
“I dont think it is faltering. I think it is a sign of success, success at embedding Irans Syrian and Hezbolla allies into the Syrian official military organs and Syrian government institutions.”
I agree that they are succeeding at embedding their agents within Syria for a long term subversion effort. They take the long view in that, as evidenced by their long term cultivation of Hezbollah in Lebanon. It is their model.
It being the Middle East however, those Syrians now signing on with Iran, might well shift sides later, if the winds of fortune begin to blow in a different direction. Iran mostly has to buy or rent its friends.
But their more aggressive (and nearer term) heavy Military buildup against Israel, and Turkish-supported Sunni militants, does seem to be taking a step back.
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