Posted on 06/28/2020 12:19:16 AM PDT by Zhang Fei
When oh when are we going to stop thumbsucking to make ourselves feel better by repeating the myth that the polls were wrong 4 years ago?
The polls were right 4 years ago.
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The referenced Politico article was from 4 years ago *after* the election. I don’t recall a single poll going into the 2016 election showing Pres. Trump winning.
Clever lies. Biden getting 83% of African American vote is a catastophe. Clinton lost with 88%. Hispanics learn in 2016 Trump and did win without them but even a small uptick in their vote will make things worse for Joey Fingers. The White v[tea has been gone for Democrat presidential candidates since 1988 with the slide getting into high gear in 92.There is no way Biden gets back the 10 points of AA vote he would need and not a chance he increases White vote. Maybe White females go to him but that won’t offset major losses from an already small poll of White men. So worry and wring your hands if you want to but this is a good news report.
Trump is trying to lose. He can’t get a grip and focus. There is no agenda for the second term. This isn’t 2016. There is a reason the campaign is spending money in Georgia when he didn’t need to in 2016, Romney, McCain and W didn’t either.
He is losing ground because of self inflicted damage and he might cost us the senate too. Do not ignore the polls.
Only Trump can fix this by finding focus and discipline as a leader. Being not Joe Biden isn’t going to win him reelection. Democrats pushed BLM to scare blacks back onto the plantation. It’s sad and frustrating but any Trump gains won’t be significant enough to beat the Dem fear mongering agenda.
Do you know the numbers for *white, college-age women* as a percentage of the voting demographic.
And the numbers for *white, college-EDUCATED women*?
NOT an Eeyore, but if POTUS has lost a percentage white-non-college-educated men over response to riots and older white women over virus response, how do these percentages compare?
Progs are evil, not stupid and they are going to cheat. We need a buffer against that.
Sure he is. I heard about one of the polls on the radio yesterday. By-don was leading Trump by 7 points. The poll was 8% more commies and fewer conservatives. So, yeah, he would be ahead if you ask 8% more commies what they thought.
I am certain that this is correct. Many Trump supporters I know are pissed (me included) that he hasn’t drained much swamp or cracked down on the rioters. I will still crawl over broken glass to vote for him but I’m not happy.
“the problem will be they won’t vote at all.”
That would be tragic. Maybe the bubble of my family, FreeRepublic, etc., has me living in a fool’s paradise, but I just assume that people who support Trump love America so much that they would vote no matter what. Not voting = voting for Biden. I never even considered the not-voting option.
Here's why I think this way.
RCP averages the polls by averaging the Trump poll portion, and then averages the Clinton/Biden portion, and calls this the average poll.
However, this average drops the margin of error within each poll in the average. That's where their failure lies.
As you know, I've been modeling polls going back to the 2010 House races. I use the MOE to convert the poll spread into a probability of the leader actually winning (Nate Silver does the same thing). RCP's article only uses the high/low spread to declare the poll's success or failure (they called it a success).
Consider some real data:
I have 10 polls for Florida throughout September 2016. Simple averaging of the polls gives me Clinton 44.5 Trump 44.2.
Now, take a deeper look at these three polls:
All three of these polls has the leader ahead by 1%. However, when the MOE is factored in, these polls become very different. Looking at the probability of winning:
The last Florida poll in September was from Mason-Dixon on 9/27-9/29. It showed Clinton 46 Trump 42 with an MOE of 3.5% This converts to a probability of Clinton 90.8 Trump 9.2. The Fox13/Opinion Survey poll above was from 9/27-9/28, and showed a lower, but still leading, probability of winning.
Just taking the last 5 polls from the second half of September, the average (and probability of winning) is:
The September poll spread was +2.2 for Clinton. President Trump won Florida 49 - 47.8, or +1.2 for Trump.
RCP can say that the result was within a polling "mean absolute error" of +2.7%, but a +2.2 lead in Florida in September was a 71% probability of winning.
It's a harder argument to make that a poll that predicts a 71% probability of a candidate winning who ultimately loses was a correct poll, when all the others polled the same way. One outlier poll, maybe, but not all of them.
-PJ
They were incredulous that anyone with a degree would vote Trump.. they voted hill or not at all. They know my son has Christian beliefs and if you are.. how can you vote Trump.
Trump is the most conservative for Christians.. they dont get that.. they hone in on past life and his talk..
I ask... who is the ignorant and who cant see.
The Trump voters have lost what???
Look.. do you know how many timed we held nose and voted.
2016 i was pleased to vote.. dont tell me a lack for swamp empty would mean let the socialist win???
Polls are all BS!
Most accurate poll is the votes! Does this look like TRUMP has lost ground with anyone??
Correct, you are living in a bubble. It’s the problem with our world today and it’s the bubble the communist left wants us in. If they can shutdown all the conservative voices on social media...we’re in a bubble and no one hears the truth.
Our failure this election cycle is apathy. Voters don’t want to vote for Biden, but they are also upset with Trump over Covid and BLM. There’s no way in hell I’d want any President to be in Trump’s shoes right now...but there he is. We need to reach out to voters.
I can’t believe people no longer care about completing the wall or the possible 2 Supreme Court nominations, along with the open seats in District courts that are currently open, to name just three issues.
No the polls were NOT right 4 yrs ago unless you consider the ones of the last 4 days before election day. This is a game long played by the lib media in order to cement their ability to point to their FINAL poll as a way to brag about their polling accuracy while ignoring the multitude of push polls they put up throughout the election
In the almost 2 years run up to then the polls were total crap and anyone paying attention knows that. They had Clinton consistently up by anywhere from 6-12 points nationwide and up by a lesser amount in the swing States but up nonetheless.
If you cannot see at this point that the huge majority of polls are biased demographically as well as being unable to account for the “silent Trump voter” phenomenon, than you shouldn’t comment on them.
No the polls were NOT right 4 yrs ago unless you consider the ones of the last 4 days before election day. This is a game long played by the lib media in order to cement their ability to point to their FINAL poll as a way to brag about their polling accuracy while ignoring the multitude of push polls they put up throughout the election
In the almost 2 years run up to then the polls were total crap and anyone paying attention knows that. They had Clinton consistently up by anywhere from 6-12 points nationwide and up by a lesser amount in the swing States but up nonetheless.
If you cannot see at this point that the huge majority of polls are biased demographically as well as being unable to account for the “silent Trump voter” phenomenon, than you shouldn’t comment on them.
JUst how does the President “crack down” on fake news? He calls it out but that aside what can he do which will have positive effect on his popularity?
“Only Trump can fix this by finding focus and discipline as a leader. Being not Joe Biden isn’t going to win him reelection.”
And Biden being “not Donald Trump” will win it for him?
Total BS!
We are basically we are flying threw heavy fog with no instruments .
I fear the Pres is taking advice only from his clueless learjet lib daughter and son in law who appears to be protecting his Cheap labor express lobby pals and hanging with Val Jones the Commie CNN fraudster.
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