NYT/Siena Polls: Trump Losing Ground with White Voters in Swing States, Not Gaining with Minorities

Breitbart ^ | 27 Jun 2020 | John Binder

[Deplorable American1776]

As my dad used to say, the NY Times is great for three things: 1) The Crossword Puzzle, 2) Lineing a bird cage and 3) To wrap fish in... but now, it is not worth the money for those three things...

[Bayard]

I agree with the point about the Trump base diverging slightly, those afraid and those who want action now. There iis a double whammy of chaos in fears this summr. But the virus is not as bad as it is. And the riots are beeing contained in states that are not deliberately sabotaging themselves.

Part of the solution is to get faith and message out there. Trust has to be reaffirmed in the competence and direction of the next 4 years.

[italianquaker]

The media lies but we are supposed to believe their polls, this must be from the babylon bee

[goorala]

With leftist rioters on the march, and the media behind them. Who feels comfortable outing themselves as a Trump supporter outside the voting booth?

[frnewsjunkie]

Can’t wear MAGA hat.
Can’t have a bumper sticker.
Can’t wear a Trump shirt
But they are asking if you are voting Trump!!

You know there comes a time in life when you are tired of walking that line (i never did but tried to be reasonable)... and throw caution and reason out.. and tell it like it is.

Trump doesnt know how else to tell it.. but like it is.. and the snobs who pretend..are offended.

We all have quietly taken the clintons.. the bushes.. and obama.. the last one was a hard one to see in the oval office.. his name wasnt even Anerican.

Are we gonna surrender?

[frnewsjunkie]

Pollster luntz this week was pontificating on what Trump voters want and what hes not doing... i dont like luntz and he does not know us.. i was talking back.. no..
He was wrong..
He thinks hes the one and only.

And the comment about media lying..why are polls suddenly truth.

AND do you recall the delays on posting voting results.2016.. and do you recall the faces when they did..
And do you recall the tears...

[Baldwin77]

Really ????

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/27/us/politics/donald-trump-slips-further-behind-hillary-clinton-in-new-polls.html

[Baldwin77]

It isn’t September yet. Look at polls from June 2016.

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/27/us/politics/donald-trump-slips-further-behind-hillary-clinton-in-new-polls.html

[krug]

Disclaimer: I am a Trumper and strong conservative. But I can see the reason behind waning support. People are in fear, and it seems our side is doing nothing, just letting these beasts destroy America. The press continually shows; peaceful demonstrations, huge covid numbers, declining economic news, racism. Swing voters may have had enough of Trump and want a calmer, simpler time. Obama was a terrible president, but the complicit media reported nothing but a glowing report, many became lulled by it. Today it looks like the end of the world.

[Bookshelf]

Breitbart regurgitates crap like this New York Times poll with nauseating regularity. It is not the future of journalism as it makes itself out to be.

[hotsteppa]

All the polls and articles leading up to Nov 2016 were the same as now along with Freepers and their room and gloom opinions. Deja vu.

[Inspectorette]

You can get books with 50 of the NYT Sunday crossword. We used to buy the Sunday Oregonian just for the puzzle. It’s $3.00 just for one lousy puzzle. The books are less than $10.00 for 50 puzzles.

[Saltmeat]

Of course, of course, her logic is exactly why 4 million people viewed President Trump’s rally in Tulsa on FoxNews. He just can’t seem to generate any excitement no matter what he does. All the polls are trying to mold public opinion to their satisfaction instead of measuring public opinion. No poll has contacted me, but if they do, I will lie to them and spit out the Democrat mantra. When the pollster is done with me, I will then go the bathroom and brush my teeth and wash my mouth out with Jack Daniels because no mouthwash will be adequate.

[Conserv]

You are full of crap. No poll had Trump winning
Michigan, no poll had Trump winning Wisconsin, no poll had Trump winning Pennsylvania.

About the only swing state the polls had Trump winning was Ohio.... and that was by one or two points.

[fhayek]

Not to mention the deep-state FBI/CIA coup attempts. Yeah, the people really want that to continue...

[Jim Noble]

“We did criminal justice reform. Nobody thought it was possible to get it done, I got it done,” Trump said

I don't know who thought poaching black votes from the Democrats was a good, realistic plan - but as long as elections exist, whoever it was - their name will go down in history as a synonym for incompetence.

[nathanbedford]

You cited Nate Silver so I thought his views on the matter would be of interest. Incidentally, I do not pretend to understand the calculations converting margin of error into level of confidence, which Nate Silver considers as well in this article. I am however struck by his conclusions:

it didn’t take any sort of extraordinary, unprecedented polling error for Trump to defeat Clinton. An ordinary, average polling error would do — one where Trump beat his polls by just a few points in just a couple of states — and that’s the polling error we got.

You read that right. Polls of the November 2016 presidential election were about as accurate as polls of presidential elections have been on average since 1972.

I am confident that you are fully familiar with Nate Silver's thinking but I believe others on this thread who reflexively reject polls when they are unfavorable would find his article instructive.

Finally, here is Silver's bottom line The media narrative that polling accuracy has taken a nosedive is mostly bullshit

[Jim Noble]

Thank you for pointing out the obvious - again.

Of course the polls were right in 2016. I was posting D +40 in the House here beginning in September 2018, and got called all kinds of names.

The inability to face reality almost always leads to disaster.

[nathanbedford]

You are full of crap.

You are unworthy of reply

[Jim Noble]

the other side is socialist

Socialism is, still, somewhat unpopular - but socialist POLICY is wildly popular.

The only think holding the US back from a socialist government is the failure of a movement to unify it with nationalism, but if the Red insurrection keeps up, I imagine that will happen.