At Least 22 States Count ‘Probable’ COVID Cases or Deaths in Their Totals

At least 22 states count in their COVID-19 statistics cases or deaths that haven’t been confirmed with a diagnostic test. These “probable” cases are determined based on symptoms and other general characteristics. While useful to track for epidemiologists, such cases add noise to the national data as some states report them and some don’t. Also, different states started reporting such cases at different times, making data comparisons with earlier periods difficult.

COVID-19 is caused by novel coronavirus that emerged in China in 2019 and has since spread around the world. The United States has seen over 3.8 million cases and over 140,000 related deaths, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

The problem is, different states report statistics on the epidemic differently.

Some states, such as Arizona, Ohio, Michigan, and Virginia include in their totals probable cases and deaths.

The nonprofit Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists (CSTE) instructed health authorities in April (pdf) to define probable cases in people with at least some symptoms (such as a headache and a sore throat) who belong to “a risk cohort” or have had contact with people who’ve tested positive, such as by residing “in an area with sustained, ongoing community transmission.”

Probable deaths are usually defined as a person dying at least partly due to an illness that looked like COVID, but hasn’t been confirmed by a laboratory test (which can be conducted postmortem).

Some states, such as Arkansas, New Jersey, and Washington, only include probable deaths, but not probable infections.

Some states, it appears, only include probable infections, but not deaths. Maine and Kansas may be in this category, their COVID websites indicate. The Epoch Times contacted all 50 states and the District of Columbia, but only 33 responded to the inquiries. Maine and Kansas didn’t respond.

Also, different states started reporting such cases at different times, making data comparisons with earlier periods difficult.

At least one major county in NYS started adding antibody positives to the New Daily Count. That's about 100 "cases" a day making it look like past infections are happening currently.

And Worldometer gladly reports it like they report i for many other locations.

Worldometer also adds probables to the daily totals in NYS. Cuomo reports one number. Worldometer jacks that number up with probables.

Vital Statistics Reference Guidance 03, April 2020(CDC)

See Attachment

Cause-of-Death Reporting
When reporting cause of death on a death certificate, use any
information available, such as medical history, medical records,
laboratory tests, an autopsy report, or other sources of relevant
information. Similar to many other diagnoses, a cause-of-death
statement is an informed medical opinion that should be based
on sound medical judgment drawn from clinical training and
experience, as well as knowledge of current disease states and
local trends (6).

Part I
This section on the death certificate is for reporting the sequence
of conditions that led directly to death. The immediate cause of
death, which is the disease or condition that directly preceded
death and is not necessarily the underlying cause of death
(UCOD), should be reported on line a. The conditions that led
to the immediate cause of death should be reported in a logical
sequence in terms of time and etiology below it.

The UCOD, which is “(a) the disease or injury which initiated
the train of morbid events leading directly to death or (b) the
circumstances of the accident or violence which produced the
fatal injury” (7), should be reported on the lowest line used in
Part I.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/vsrg/vsrg03-508.pdf

https://www.fda.gov/media/134922/download

Page 3

INTENDED USE

Positive results are indicative of active infection with
2019-nCoV but do not rule out bacterial infection or co-infection with other viruses. The agent detected
may not be the definite cause of disease. Laboratories within the United States and its territories are
required to report all positive results to the appropriate public health authorities.

Negative results do not preclude 2019-nCoV infection and should not be used as the sole basis for treatment or other patient management decisions.”

Translation: A positive test doesn’t guarantee that the COVID virus is causing infection at all. Then again, maybe the COVID virus isAC not be in the patient’s body either.

https://www.fda.gov/media/134922/download

From the World Health Organization (WHO): “Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) technical guidance: Laboratory testing for 2019-nCoV in humans” https://bit.ly/3cidWiS

“Several assays that detect the 2019-nCoV have been and are currently under development, both in-house and commercially. Some assays may detect only the novel virus [COVID] and some may also detect other strains (e.g. SARS-CoV) that are genetically similar.”

Translation: Some PCR tests register positive for types of coronavirus that have nothing to do with COVID—including plain old coronas that cause nothing more than a cold.

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