>>Most of them seem to be within the margin of error so it’s not disastrous as the media would have you believe...
Yes, but how much did they oversample the Rats? 8 points? 10 points? Without knowing that these numbers are meaningless
You wonder if you can add in the “shy Trump” vote into this as well. That is, people who do not openly tell that they are going to vote Republican.
Bro it’s fantastic.
Are you the last person to hear that you have to add about 5 point to Trump on polls besides maybe Rasmussen? :)
Many people will not admit they are voting for Trump.
Not on the phone and not even online.
Plus there’s usually some slant in the polling methods.
And if even neither of those are true, it’s July.
I’m guessing a sitting president has been behind many times this early only to surge at the end.
What happened to the double digit Biden lead? How and more importantly why did it go away so fast and so thoroughly among all these States?
Given that the polls routinely under count republicans, over count democrats, these are good polls
If these polls are correct, Trump is actually in better shape than he was against Hillary in the battleground states at this point in 2016. I remember polls in Michigan had Hillary up 7% on election day...
Not to mention the debates haven’t even started yet.
biden can’t last through one without making a mistake at this point..a big one..I think.
Early dementia makes it hard to do a 90 minute debate
The first debate is in two months. Let’s talk after that.
LOL Can’t wait for Nov. 3! It will be a landslide! MAGA
A companion national survey of 1,039 likely voters was also conducted July 24-26, 2020.
The margin of error, as traditionally calculated, is ±1.94% for the battleground and ±3.04% for the national poll.
Change Research reaches voters via targeted online ads that point people to an online survey instrument. https://www.changeresearch.com/post/states-of-play-battleground-wave-10
Margin of error (MOE) for the battleground states is +/-1.94% -— none of the results in your post are within the MOE.
https://www.changeresearch.com/post/states-of-play-battleground-wave-10
How heavy did they oversample Dems?
Does this translate to 14% nationally? These are completely made up good or bad?
Now they are tightening the polls to:
1. Not look like total incompetent idiots when Trump wins
2. Try to scare the lazy lefties into voting as they know the enthusiasm gap is enormous.
Only one poll counts which is election day. So get out and vote on election day and fight for our President every day till election day!
They are also extremely small sample sizes. 284 - NC, 382 - PA and 392 WI. Almost meaningless. That said, Joe is in bad shape and he knows it.
I know it’s anecdotal but I polled my (Trump supporting) family members and all of us said the same thing: None of us would EVER answer a pollster that we were voting for Trump.
I suspect there are many out there just like us who refuse to answer these polls or slam the phone down (so to speak).
Same in 2016, on the day of the election, when Hillary had an over 90% chance of winning the election.
These polls tell us what we really already knew — these states are toss ups. They truly could go either way at this point. Certainly Trump’s not in trouble like the media keeps reporting, but nor is he in the clear like some on here seem to believe. We cannot get complacent and think we’ve got this election in the bag. Old Cankles showed us what happens when you get complacent about an election. Let’s not make that mistake.
TLDR version — polls, schmes, get out there and fight; nothing is decided.
FORGET POLLS! They are all FAKE!
You are being manipulated. Don’t let them!
Are these polls of registered voters, eligible to be registered voters, likely to be paroled before the election voters, or actual registered likely voters?