Posted on 10/10/2020 6:27:38 PM PDT by Coop
There are 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. As of today the House make-up consists of 232 Democrats, 197 Republicans, 1 traitor Libertarian (Amash), and 5 vacancies (Republicans: Graves, GA-14; Meadows, NC-11; Ratcliffe, TX-04; Hunter, CA-50; Democrat Lewis, GA-05). Let’s assume all the vacant seats remain with their respective parties, and Amash votes with the Democrats. That’s 234 Ds to 201 Rs. The GOP needs a net gain of 17 seats to retire Nancy Pelosi as speaker. All 435 seats are up for re-election every two years, on even years. But only a small percentage are considered competitive. This year Ballotpedia assesses that less than 10% of races are considered battlegrounds.
At the beginning of this year there were 31 Democrats sitting in House districts that Trump won. After witnessing the disgraceful impeachment debacle, NJ-02’s Rep. Jeff Van Drew quit his shameful party and joined the GOP. Trump won Jeff’s R+1 district by 5 points. So now we have 30 Dems in Trump districts, and only 3 Republicans in districts won by Clinton.
As you look at the chart below, keep in mind that there are other competitive races not on this list. One example is GOP Rep. Don Bacon in NE-02, who barely won in 2016 & 2018 in a slight Trump-leaning district. Tom Kean Jr. is trying to flip NJ-07, a district Hillary won by a point, but that McCain-disciple Romney won by over 6 points in 2012. I am hopeful that readers of this thread will chime in with information on other competitive Congressional races (info on fundraising, voter registration, endorsements, events, and… [sigh] okay, even polls). 😊
GOP advantages are the numbers shown below (30 Trump-district Dem seats to defend vs. 3 Clinton-district GOP seats), as well as having Trump on the top of the ticket (unlike 2018 when we lost most of these seats). The GOP disadvantage is most of these Democrats are incumbents and very well funded. There are two open seats (no incumbent) in the below tables: IA-02 and TX-23. GOP candidates running in swing states will benefit from Trump & RNC money & get-out-the-vote operations. Republicans running in states like NJ and NY will need more of their own campaign money & hopefully NRCC funding.
The Cook partisan voting index (PVI) shows how a district leans, right or left, based on previous elections. WI-03 is rated as “even” on the Cook scale, meaning it is as “down the middle” as a district can get. R+2 means a district is about two points more Republican than WI-03, and D+7 means a district is about 7 point more Democratic than WI-03. Cook ratings for PA-08 and PA-17 are marked with question marks due to redistricting (these districts didn’t exist in this form during the last POTUS election, and I was finding conflicting information).
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| State/District | 2016 Trump Margin | Cook Rating | Republican Candidate | |
| AZ-01 | 4 pts | R+2 | Tiffany Shedd | |
| GA-06 | 1.5 pts | R+8 | Karen Handel | |
| IL-14 | < 4 pts | R+5 | Jim Oberweis | |
| IL-17 | 0.7 pts | D+3 | Esther J. King* | |
| IA-01 | 3.5 pts | D+1 | Ashley Hinson | |
| IA-02 (open) | 4 pts | D+1 | Mariannette Miller-Meeks* | |
| IA-03 | 3.5 pts | R+1 | Former Rep. David Young | |
| ME-02 | >10 pts | R+2 | Dale Crafts | |
| MI-08 | <7 pts | R+4 | Paul Junge | |
| MI-11 | >3 pts | R+4 | Eric Esshaki | |
| MN-02 | >1 pt | R+2 | Tyler Kistner* | |
| MN-07 | <31 pts | R+12 | LtGov Michelle Fischbach | |
| NV-03 | 1 pt | R+2 | ”Big Dan” Rodimer | |
| NH-01 | 1.6 pts | R+2 | Matt Mowers | |
| NJ-03 | >6 pts | R+2 | David Richter | |
| NJ-05 | 1 pt | R+3 | Frank Pallotta | |
| NJ-11 | <1 pt | R+3 | Rosemary Becchi | |
| NM-02 | ~10 pts | R+6 | Yvette Herrell | |
| NY-11 | <10 pts | R+3 | Nicole Malliotakis | |
| NY-19 | <7 pts | R+2 | Kyle Van De Water* | |
| NY-22 | <15 pts | R+6 | Former Rep. Claudia Tenney | |
| OK-05 | ~13 pts | R+10 | Stephanie Bice | |
| PA-08 | <10 pts | ??? | Jim Bognet | |
| PA-17 | 2.6 pts | ??? | Sean Parnell* | |
| SC-01 | 13 pts | R+10 | Nancy Mace | |
| UT-04 | <7 pts | R+13 | NFL player Burgess Owens | |
| VA-02 | 3.4 pts | R+3 | Former Rep. Scott Taylor* | |
| VA-07 | 6.5 pts | R+6 | Nick Freitas* | |
| WI-03 | 4.5 pts | Even | Derrick Van Orden* | |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| State/District | 2016 Trump Margin | Cook Rating | Republican Candidate | |
| NY-24 | -3.6 pts | D+3 | Rep. John Katko | |
| PA-01 | -2 pts | D+2 | Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick | |
| TX-23 (open) | -3.4 pts | R+1 | Tony Gonzales* | |
Did you notice all the vibrant female Republican candidates? Not bad for a supposed party of old white men, huh? LOL We also have some exciting black candidates such as Burgess Owens, UT-04, and Kimberly Klacik in MD-07, Latina/Latino contenders and a first generation American by way of Iraq. The GOP also has (at least) two physically handicapped candidates in Dale Crafts (ME-02, above) and Madison Cawthorn, NC-11. Whether these diverse candidates win or lose, they’re changing the egregiously biased media “Republicans are all white males” narrative. Running on GOP tickets we also have plenty of military veterans, which this veteran thinks we need more of in Congress.
What can you do to help retire Nancy?
Finally, there’s a lot of data entry involved in those tables above, plus a few paragraphs. I apologize for any errors and would encourage readers to point them out so I don’t inadvertently give folks the wrong information or impression.
If President Trump performs as well as I anticipate this election, I believe his coattails have a good shot of swiping that gavel from Nancy Pelosi’s fist.
Klacik certainly is very impressive, and I think it’s great that she’s taking the fight to Kweisi Mfume, but she has absolutely no chance of winning in November, given that the district gave President Trump only 20% in 2016 and gave Romney only 22% in 2012. A better use of her time and resources would be for her to campaign for and transfer funds to GOP House candidates who can win with a little help, such as Wesley Hunt in TX-07, Nancy Mace in SC-01, Leo Valentín in FL-07, Stephanie Bice in OK-05, Paul Junge in MI-08, Esther King in IL-17, Michelle Steel in CA-48, and countless others. Helping some of those Republicans get elected could pay off big time for her when she runs for governor (open-seat race) or U.S. Senator (against Democrat incumbent Chris Van Hollen) in 2022.
Detractors say Klactik is “auditioning for a job at Fox News”.
I 100% support putting up a showing in “urban” districts, I live in one. But it would be a crying shame (and frankly irresponsible as hell) if that money wasn’t used where it could actually help.
By the way, Donald J. Trump had absolutely no chance of winning the presidency in 2016.
Trump's campaign is doing a last-minute reversal on Minnesota. Trump went dark on TV here this week -- after six weeks of cutting reserved ad time -- but campaign manager Bill Stepien says there will be a major a buy in the campaign's final week.
Jason Lewis (for Senate), Tyler Kistner (MN-02) and LtGov Michelle Fischbach (MN-07) will definitely benefit from this ad buy.
Except, he did, not a fair comparison.
She would certainly have as good a shot as any Republican in a statewide race whether she loses an unwinnable House race or not.
Trump had absolutely no shot... yet he won.
Klacik has absolutely no shot... TBD.
Fair comparison.
The idea that Trump had “no shot” was prima facie bull, the polls weren’t even that bad. I thought he’d probably lose but I actually gave him a 46% chance.
I honestly think Kim has a better chance of winning the lotto.
“By the way, Donald J. Trump had absolutely no chance of winning the presidency in 2016.”
____________________
Coop, it is disingenuous of you to compare an ignorant statement from people in an echo chamber about the odds of victory of a Republican nominee for president to a sobering statement admission about the odds of winning of a Republican nominee in a black-majority district based in Baltimore that gave said nominee only 25% of the vote in a special election (a two-candidate race) earlier this year, gave President Trump only 20% in 2016, and gave Romney only 22% in 2012.
The only time in the past 50 years that the GOP has come close to winning a House race in a district in which the two previous presidential candidates had received 25% or below was in LA-02 in 2008, when Joseph Cao was elected (i) in a very low turnout December runoff, (ii) against an unpopular Democrat incumbent who was under indictment for bribery after the FBI found $90,000 in cash in the freezer at his office in the U.S. Capitol, (iii) in a district that was several percentage points more Republican than MD-07 currently is (the LA-02 had given McCain 25% that November and 24% in 2004). If Kweisi Mfume is arrested upon the FBI finding $90,000 in cash in his freezer and the MD-07 House election is delayed until December while the presidential race continues on November 3, then maybe Kim has a chance.
But, as things stand, she has a 0% chance, and all the spending in the world won’t change that.
And no one, repeat, no one can blame Kim for losing both House races in 2020. She has run her guts off and been a great spokesman for the GOP and conservatism. While she will not have a clear path to the GOP nomination for governor or U.S. senator in 2022 (Lt. Gov. Boyd Rutherford may run for the former and Gov. Hogan may run for the latter), her performance in the House races will be an asset, not a liability, for her among the GOP electorate in MD.
Why is Murtha an “ex” rather than “former” Marine?
From my viewpoint someone like Jack Murtha who sold out his fellow Marines has disgraced the uniform and no longer deserves the title “former Marine”.
Dude, in case you didn’t read what I wrote, I provided much of that info, including that it’s a D+26 district. But I chose to focus on the positives of her campaign. You chose not to.
I know that you pointed out that it’s D+26, and I think that your optimism about these elections is refreshing, necessary and perfectly reasonable. Your posts have been great, and it’s clear to me now how much poorer FR had been during your years of absence.
But MD-07, like AOC’s district or Ilhan Omar’s district, is not going to happen for us. And my point is that if we spent an extras $500,000 in each of 12 winnable districts instead of $6M in a single unwinnable district, it could be the difference between a GOP House and a Democrat House on January 3, and in the long run it would be better for Kim as well.
CA-43 is Maxine Waters' district. D+99. Okay, not really. But Trump got <17% there, while McCain earned 22% of the vote. However, south L.A. native and U.S. Navy veteran Joe Collins* is going at Mad Maxine full speed, and God bless him for it.
Navy veteran Joe Collins targets Democrat Maxine Waters' home in campaign ad
As of late July Joe Collins had raised over $3M.
I’m proud of Joe Collins, too, but would be even prouder if he lent a helping hand to fellow Californians Buzz Patterson, Ted Howze, Erin Cruz, Young Kim, David Valadao, Greg Raths, Michelle Steel, Brian Maryott and Jim DeBello (as well as freshman incumbent Mike García), all of whom are running in districts that we actually can win.
And while Joe Collins (unfortunately) will not be able to get elected in Maxine Waters’s overwhelmingly Democrat district, he could win a future statewide run if he becomes better known in other parts of the state and cultivates allies that he helped elect to Congress.
And that approach would make much more sense to me, since everyone you mentioned is a Californian. But Joe and Kim and their campaign managers need to decide how to use all that money.
This is great !!!!
Need more of these ads
Powerful !
More good fundraising news regarding GOP challengers trying to win back House seats in Trump districts.
Nancy Mace Poll (SC): GOP Challenger Beating Joe Cunningham By Two Percentage Points
Thanks Coop. So many races
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