State of the 2020 U.S. House Elections

Various links provided throughout | 10/10/2020 | Coop

[dangus]

According to CBS/YouGov’s data (but not their interpretation), if the partisan turnout is the SAME as 2016, Republicans will get more votes than Democrats in the House races. And registration and early voting suggests they’ll do better.

(With THEIR turnout model, Dems win by 7%.)

[Coop]

if the partisan turnout is the SAME as 2016, Republicans will get more votes than Democrats in the House races. And registration and early voting suggests they’ll do better.

I don't know about the CBS data. But just the data on this thread says if Trump wins again, there are so many Democrats in Trump districts Nancy P. should lose the House. Now, candidates matter, incumbency counts, as does fundraising. But the House/Senate districts in the swing states are going to benefit from the Trump/RNC GOTV efforts.

[Coop]

President Trump is visited Maine today! I had no idea, as it was not on the public schedule.

Trump to visit Levant orchard after landing in Bangor

Trump lost won one of Maine's electoral votes in 2016, and this year he has a shot at winning the statewide EVs as well. Dale Crafts is trying to win back Maine's 2nd district House seat for the GOP. Plus of course Susan Collins is trying to hang on to her Senate seat.

[Coop]

Excellent grammar:

President Trump is visited Maine today!

[Impy]

Dudes, I just found out that Congressman Mike Sherrill (D-NJ) is actually Congresswoman Michelle "Mikie" Sherrill. 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

[fieldmarshaldj]

Just as long as the Demonrats are outgoing as elected officials, I don’t care what gender they are.

[BillyBoy]

>> Dudes, I just found out that Congressman Mike Sherrill (D-NJ) is actually Congresswoman Michelle "Mikie" Sherrill. <<

You literally just described the plot of the 2004 teen comedy EuroTrip. The guy has a penpal from Germany who says his name is "Mike". The guy comes home drunk one day and reads an email from "Mike" that sounds flirtatous and says they should meetup in person. He thinks "Mike" is a sick homo and quickly shoots back a reply telling him to f off, so "Mike" blocks him. The next morning, his friend reads the email and quickly notices that its actually from "Mieke", which is a "pretty common German feminine name". Upon further research, they realize Mieke is a cute German girl that he has now pissed off. So they set off on a... EuroTrip!

[Coop]

Just heard on WABC radio (NYC) that Nicole M. of NY-11 (Staten Island) is leading incumbent Dem Max Rose by a couple of points.

[Ravi]

Nice!

[nesnah]

Me too.

He’s a rather ballsy liar.

[Impy]

Trump country and Rose’s campaign is a disaster, might even be #1 on the pickup list, she should win easily.

[Coop]

The GOP's Stephanie Bice leads the incumbent Dem in OK-05 48.5 - 44% as of a poll today.

More good news from another seat we absolutely must win if the GOP hopes to retire Nancy as speaker.

Good Republican fundraising news across many House seats, and recent poll showing three Dem incumbents trailing in OK-05, SC-01 and NY-11. Hoping others will add more good news to this thread.

[TexasGurl24]

The generic ballot polling is closing as well.

[PermaRag]

I haven’t seen a poll (but would sure like to see a good one) on PA-17 where an outstanding Republican candidate, Sean Parnell, is running against Pelosi-puppet and all-around scumbag Conor Lamb in a district in my area that was specially gerrymandered 2 years ago to elect a Rat — but the district is at least somewhat marginal.

[Coop]

Republicans lead in eight competitive California House districts 49-47% (acc to Cook Political Report these districts are CA-02, -10, -21, -22, -25, -39, -48 and -50).

[Coop]

ICYMI: GOP sees chance to take out Democratic House campaign chief [IL-17]

Excerpt:The Cook Political Report on Wednesday moved Bustos’ race against King from likely Democrat to a lean Democrat district. And internal GOP polling has also elevated Republican hopes...

[fortheDeclaration]

I think we take back quite a bunch of House seats, enough to retake the House!

[fortheDeclaration]

How do they get Dems winning by 7% with increased GOP turnout from 2016! With the Trump wave we are going to retake many of the seats lost in Trump districts.

[Coop]

How do they get Dems winning by 7% with increased GOP turnout from 2016!

1. Massive crossover from Republicans to Biden, with minimal crossover from Dems to Trump [unlikely]
2. Biden strongly wins independents [possible, but wouldn't count on it]
3. Democrat turnout massively swamps Republicans [sorry, not seeing it]
4. National polls are a cheap substitute for fertilizer [gotta go with this one]

[Coop]

Not sure if it a "good" poll, but I found this one showing the Dem incumbent up 45-44%.

I think if Trump simply runs about even in PA, Parnell will win this seat in a district that Trump won by 2.6 points. Sean seems to have done quite well with fundraising and name recognition.