Posted on 10/10/2020 6:27:38 PM PDT by Coop
There are 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. As of today the House make-up consists of 232 Democrats, 197 Republicans, 1 traitor Libertarian (Amash), and 5 vacancies (Republicans: Graves, GA-14; Meadows, NC-11; Ratcliffe, TX-04; Hunter, CA-50; Democrat Lewis, GA-05). Let’s assume all the vacant seats remain with their respective parties, and Amash votes with the Democrats. That’s 234 Ds to 201 Rs. The GOP needs a net gain of 17 seats to retire Nancy Pelosi as speaker. All 435 seats are up for re-election every two years, on even years. But only a small percentage are considered competitive. This year Ballotpedia assesses that less than 10% of races are considered battlegrounds.
At the beginning of this year there were 31 Democrats sitting in House districts that Trump won. After witnessing the disgraceful impeachment debacle, NJ-02’s Rep. Jeff Van Drew quit his shameful party and joined the GOP. Trump won Jeff’s R+1 district by 5 points. So now we have 30 Dems in Trump districts, and only 3 Republicans in districts won by Clinton.
As you look at the chart below, keep in mind that there are other competitive races not on this list. One example is GOP Rep. Don Bacon in NE-02, who barely won in 2016 & 2018 in a slight Trump-leaning district. Tom Kean Jr. is trying to flip NJ-07, a district Hillary won by a point, but that McCain-disciple Romney won by over 6 points in 2012. I am hopeful that readers of this thread will chime in with information on other competitive Congressional races (info on fundraising, voter registration, endorsements, events, and… [sigh] okay, even polls). 😊
GOP advantages are the numbers shown below (30 Trump-district Dem seats to defend vs. 3 Clinton-district GOP seats), as well as having Trump on the top of the ticket (unlike 2018 when we lost most of these seats). The GOP disadvantage is most of these Democrats are incumbents and very well funded. There are two open seats (no incumbent) in the below tables: IA-02 and TX-23. GOP candidates running in swing states will benefit from Trump & RNC money & get-out-the-vote operations. Republicans running in states like NJ and NY will need more of their own campaign money & hopefully NRCC funding.
The Cook partisan voting index (PVI) shows how a district leans, right or left, based on previous elections. WI-03 is rated as “even” on the Cook scale, meaning it is as “down the middle” as a district can get. R+2 means a district is about two points more Republican than WI-03, and D+7 means a district is about 7 point more Democratic than WI-03. Cook ratings for PA-08 and PA-17 are marked with question marks due to redistricting (these districts didn’t exist in this form during the last POTUS election, and I was finding conflicting information).
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| State/District | 2016 Trump Margin | Cook Rating | Republican Candidate | |
| AZ-01 | 4 pts | R+2 | Tiffany Shedd | |
| GA-06 | 1.5 pts | R+8 | Karen Handel | |
| IL-14 | < 4 pts | R+5 | Jim Oberweis | |
| IL-17 | 0.7 pts | D+3 | Esther J. King* | |
| IA-01 | 3.5 pts | D+1 | Ashley Hinson | |
| IA-02 (open) | 4 pts | D+1 | Mariannette Miller-Meeks* | |
| IA-03 | 3.5 pts | R+1 | Former Rep. David Young | |
| ME-02 | >10 pts | R+2 | Dale Crafts | |
| MI-08 | <7 pts | R+4 | Paul Junge | |
| MI-11 | >3 pts | R+4 | Eric Esshaki | |
| MN-02 | >1 pt | R+2 | Tyler Kistner* | |
| MN-07 | <31 pts | R+12 | LtGov Michelle Fischbach | |
| NV-03 | 1 pt | R+2 | ”Big Dan” Rodimer | |
| NH-01 | 1.6 pts | R+2 | Matt Mowers | |
| NJ-03 | >6 pts | R+2 | David Richter | |
| NJ-05 | 1 pt | R+3 | Frank Pallotta | |
| NJ-11 | <1 pt | R+3 | Rosemary Becchi | |
| NM-02 | ~10 pts | R+6 | Yvette Herrell | |
| NY-11 | <10 pts | R+3 | Nicole Malliotakis | |
| NY-19 | <7 pts | R+2 | Kyle Van De Water* | |
| NY-22 | <15 pts | R+6 | Former Rep. Claudia Tenney | |
| OK-05 | ~13 pts | R+10 | Stephanie Bice | |
| PA-08 | <10 pts | ??? | Jim Bognet | |
| PA-17 | 2.6 pts | ??? | Sean Parnell* | |
| SC-01 | 13 pts | R+10 | Nancy Mace | |
| UT-04 | <7 pts | R+13 | NFL player Burgess Owens | |
| VA-02 | 3.4 pts | R+3 | Former Rep. Scott Taylor* | |
| VA-07 | 6.5 pts | R+6 | Nick Freitas* | |
| WI-03 | 4.5 pts | Even | Derrick Van Orden* | |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| State/District | 2016 Trump Margin | Cook Rating | Republican Candidate | |
| NY-24 | -3.6 pts | D+3 | Rep. John Katko | |
| PA-01 | -2 pts | D+2 | Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick | |
| TX-23 (open) | -3.4 pts | R+1 | Tony Gonzales* | |
Did you notice all the vibrant female Republican candidates? Not bad for a supposed party of old white men, huh? LOL We also have some exciting black candidates such as Burgess Owens, UT-04, and Kimberly Klacik in MD-07, Latina/Latino contenders and a first generation American by way of Iraq. The GOP also has (at least) two physically handicapped candidates in Dale Crafts (ME-02, above) and Madison Cawthorn, NC-11. Whether these diverse candidates win or lose, they’re changing the egregiously biased media “Republicans are all white males” narrative. Running on GOP tickets we also have plenty of military veterans, which this veteran thinks we need more of in Congress.
What can you do to help retire Nancy?
Finally, there’s a lot of data entry involved in those tables above, plus a few paragraphs. I apologize for any errors and would encourage readers to point them out so I don’t inadvertently give folks the wrong information or impression.
If President Trump performs as well as I anticipate this election, I believe his coattails have a good shot of swiping that gavel from Nancy Pelosi’s fist.
According to CBS/YouGov’s data (but not their interpretation), if the partisan turnout is the SAME as 2016, Republicans will get more votes than Democrats in the House races. And registration and early voting suggests they’ll do better.
(With THEIR turnout model, Dems win by 7%.)
I don't know about the CBS data. But just the data on this thread says if Trump wins again, there are so many Democrats in Trump districts Nancy P. should lose the House. Now, candidates matter, incumbency counts, as does fundraising. But the House/Senate districts in the swing states are going to benefit from the Trump/RNC GOTV efforts.
Trump to visit Levant orchard after landing in Bangor
Trump lost won one of Maine's electoral votes in 2016, and this year he has a shot at winning the statewide EVs as well. Dale Crafts is trying to win back Maine's 2nd district House seat for the GOP. Plus of course Susan Collins is trying to hang on to her Senate seat.
President Trump is visited Maine today!
Just as long as the Demonrats are outgoing as elected officials, I don’t care what gender they are.
You literally just described the plot of the 2004 teen comedy EuroTrip. The guy has a penpal from Germany who says his name is "Mike". The guy comes home drunk one day and reads an email from "Mike" that sounds flirtatous and says they should meetup in person. He thinks "Mike" is a sick homo and quickly shoots back a reply telling him to f off, so "Mike" blocks him. The next morning, his friend reads the email and quickly notices that its actually from "Mieke", which is a "pretty common German feminine name". Upon further research, they realize Mieke is a cute German girl that he has now pissed off. So they set off on a... EuroTrip!
Just heard on WABC radio (NYC) that Nicole M. of NY-11 (Staten Island) is leading incumbent Dem Max Rose by a couple of points.
Nice!
Me too.
He’s a rather ballsy liar.
Trump country and Rose’s campaign is a disaster, might even be #1 on the pickup list, she should win easily.
More good news from another seat we absolutely must win if the GOP hopes to retire Nancy as speaker.
Good Republican fundraising news across many House seats, and recent poll showing three Dem incumbents trailing in OK-05, SC-01 and NY-11. Hoping others will add more good news to this thread.
The generic ballot polling is closing as well.
I haven’t seen a poll (but would sure like to see a good one) on PA-17 where an outstanding Republican candidate, Sean Parnell, is running against Pelosi-puppet and all-around scumbag Conor Lamb in a district in my area that was specially gerrymandered 2 years ago to elect a Rat — but the district is at least somewhat marginal.
Excerpt:The Cook Political Report on Wednesday moved Bustos’ race against King from likely Democrat to a lean Democrat district. And internal GOP polling has also elevated Republican hopes...
I think we take back quite a bunch of House seats, enough to retake the House!
How do they get Dems winning by 7% with increased GOP turnout from 2016! With the Trump wave we are going to retake many of the seats lost in Trump districts.
I think if Trump simply runs about even in PA, Parnell will win this seat in a district that Trump won by 2.6 points. Sean seems to have done quite well with fundraising and name recognition.
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