State of the 2020 U.S. House Elections

Various links provided throughout | 10/10/2020 | Coop

[Coop]

Rand Paul, Nick Freitas board 'Team Trump' bus, make stop in Chesterfield [VA-07]

This ain't POTUS or VPOTUS, but Rand's fairly high profile. I like it!

[PermaRag]

Thanks for the poll link, and your last sentence sums up Parnell’s campaign nicely.

[Coop]

Not sure if there's a VA ping list, but thought you might be interested in the news from two key House races: VA-07 (Nick Freitas - see above post) and VA-02 (Scott Taylor).

I thought Taylor was trailing Luria in polling, but he's led the last few. The incumbent Dem is in the low 40s.

RCP: Taylor leading VA-02

[Coop]

I forgot to add that the poll I found was a campaign poll for Parnell, so take it with a grain of salt. But the race is certainly competitive even with no public polling that I could find.

[going hot]

CA 7th house race. Ami BARA usually squeaks by with 50-few hundred votes, often on 2nd or third recount.

This time, have a strong contender, Buzz Patterson. He is going strong, will be a real close race.

[going hot]

ping to 225, should have included you in the “to”

[Coop]

Last one for the night. GA-06, Karen Handel is in a rematch with Dem incumbent McBath, who beat her by about a point. This NRCC poll is from August, and it shows McBath up 48-46%. But what I found interesting was this excerpt:

Trump's margin of victory in the district was slimmer in 2016 than past GOP presidential candidates. Trump won by 1.5 points, while 2012 GOP nominee Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) won by 23.3 points. Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) won by 18.9 points in 2008.

I knew GA-06 was considered pretty Republican, but had no idea the numbers were that strong up until 2016. With Trump significantly improving his GOP approval ratings from four years ago, Handel should have a lot of right-leaning votes to tap into during a presidential election. I like her chances.

[Ravi]

Correct me if I’m wrong but I believe that district was redrawn recently.

[Coop]

That would explain a drastic drop-off (not attributable to Trump himself). I took a quick look and don’t see anything redrawn since the 2010 census. But I’m tired and going to bed. I’m certain one of our Congressional district gurus can provide some excellent background. Good night to you, sir!

[AuH2ORepublican]

“Republicans lead in eight competitive California House districts 49-47% (acc to Cook Political Report these districts are CA-02, -10, -21, -22, -25, -39, -48 and -50).”

Coop, did you mean CA-07 instead of CA-02? Because the CA-02 is overwhelmingly Democrat, so it wouldn’t be described as “competitive” by Cook, much less show the Republican candidate ahead in a poll.

Among the districts listed, two should be safe Republican (Nunes’s CA-22 and the open CA-50 that Hunter vacated), but the others would be very nice pickups (and CA-25 a nice hold for newly elected Mike García). Our other potential U.S. House pickups in California are 36, 45, 49 and 52.

[Impy]

Cook has 4 of ours “competitive”) Garcia 25 (tossup), the Hunter seat 50 seat (lean), Nunes 22 (LOL) and McClintock 4 (lol) “likely”.

And 4 of theirs

They have CA-21 a tossup, 48 lean rat, 10 and 39 “likely” rat

We should get 48, might get 39. Should never have lost 21 but that’s rat for President country.

10 should be Republican but our candidate ran into problems over tweets about Islam or some crap and I think McCarthy was a little bitch and disavowed him. I’m happy to see the seat still on the radar.

As for this poll, it’s not actually not great given that 4 of them are ours and only 1 of those should be competitive.

As for “other” seats, CD-7 is a nasty tease. I don’t see Ruiz 39 going down. 45 Porter should be a shot. 49, I don’t know but that would ironic after Issa abandoned it like a little wuss. 52, I can’t imagine.

[CharlesWayneCT]

what the heck is that link, it shows 2028 polling and thrn hacks me with a google advertisement

[Darnright]

“This ain’t POTUS or VPOTUS, but Rand’s fairly high profile. I like it!”

Yes, it definitely works. Hopefully, Nick will win the seat.
My member of Congress, Ben Cline, is pretty safe.

[dangus]

Michelle Steel? So Michael finally finished the job?

LOL! Just kidding... Michelle’s a Republican.

[Coop]

It is 2020 polling data for VA02, as intended.

[CharlesWayneCT]

This is the URL for the link you provided:

“https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/va/virginia_2nd_district_taylor_vs_luria-6498.html#polls";

Note “2018” in the link. And it shows the final results as well, which were the 2018 final results. Maybe you got the wrong link?

[Coop]

Ah, you are correct. It shows an asterisk for Taylor as the incumbent and Luria’s final victory. My apologies! I was surprised to see Taylor leading.

[pgkdan]

It would be really helpful if every Freeper in a contested House district would chime in, with their state, the district, the two candidates, and where, in their estimation, their race is.

I'm in VA's second district. It encompasses the Eastern Shore of VA, Virginia Beach and the eastern stretch of the peninsula, including all of Williamsburg.

It's a rematch between democrat incumbent Elaine Luria and former R Congressman Scott Taylor. Taylor lost to Luria in 2018 but seems poised to win the seat back next week.

[pgkdan]

In 2020, Trump IS on the ballot and his coattails will win many of those 2018 lost seats back and then some.

I second that!

[SpeedyInTexas]

Darrell Issa will be returning to Congress. This is a Hold.
Issa will replace Duncan Hunter who was a naughty boy.

Hunter was stupid. It is so easy to make money as a Congressman legally. Maxine Waters lives in a 6 million dollar mansion you know.

As Daly of Chicago said, Never Take A Dime. Just Give Them Your Business Card.

“#CA50 GE:
Issa (R) 51% (+11)
Campa-Najjar (D) 40%
.
Trump 49% (+4)
Biden 45%

@surveyusa/@sdut/@10News, LV, 10/22-26
http://surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=24006771-7dd1-47f4-933c-ad5b78061dcb";