Posted on 10/28/2020 6:30:07 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
DUVAL just flipped to Advantage TRUMP
Where?, on the maps it’s showing Biden up 20K
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It is advantage Trump in Duval just with respect to IPEV compared to 2016. Duval was the last county FL to flip to Trump.
If we voted by horse and buggy I would allow for more time.
How the hell is Texas a toss up, especially after Biden’s oil comments. That’s laughable.
It isn’t. Who is campaigning there? Not Joe Biden. Jill did make 3 stops about 2 weeks ago I think. Not Potus or surrogates.
It’s such a huge electoral prize. If it was in danger, our side would be camping there, and so would the other side.
I agree. With Biden leading by 17 in WI he should be up.by 7-8 points in the Lone Star state!
Agreed.
And how many Republicans voted Democrat. That's why it's only counting the votes that matters.
Everybody’s got their own echo chamber.
If a state is supposed to move 10 points from 2016, there has to be some enormous population change. People don’t change their minds. The Trump haters and their echo chamber think lots of Republicans and Independents have seen the light and hate Trump now. And vice versa, we think Democrats are going to wholesale decide the riots are their own fault and will vote Trump.
Minds don’t change that easily. Usually not at all.
To be clear, that was sarcasm
haha of course, and my diatribe wasn’t pointed at you. Just hit reply on the latest post of the moment and forgot to change to ALL.
From 2018
https://www.orlandosentinel.com/business/os-bz-puerto-rico-numbers-20180105-story.html
The flood of evacuees from Puerto Rico is reshaping schools, communities and public services, but the truth is nobody knows exactly how many islanders are moving to Florida permanently.
Three university professors who are studying the influx after Hurricane Maria hit the island in September are questioning figures that Gov. Rick Scott has been using – most recently 300,000. The storm — which knocked out all power and most cellphone service for weeks — was the worst disaster to ever hit the Caribbean island.
LS-—Check this out: As of this morning, in the Big 3 Democrat strongholds of Florida, Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-Dade counties, the EV differential by percentage is virtually the exact same today as the EV differential at the end of the 2016 EV:
Palm Beach 2016: 47%(D) vs. 28%(R)
Palm Beach 2020: 48%(D) vs 27%(R)
Broward 2016: 55%(D) vs. 21%(R)
Broward 2020: 55%(D) vs. 21%(R)
Miami-D: 2016: 44%(D) vs. 29%(R)
Miami-D: 2016: 42%(D) vs. 31%(R)
D’s doing slightly better in Palm Beach Co., R’s doing more than slightly better in Miami-Dade, and dead even in Broward. However, Rs are expected to greatly out-perform these numbers during the remaining days of early voting (Rs out-voting Ds slightly in in-person voting in Palm and Miami-Dade, and over-performing in Broward).
Put this in perspective: The Dems spent a ship-ton of money and effort to get the EV out in FL, yet Rs will be closer in EV %s in all 3 big Florida Dem. counties this year as compared to 2016.
Good call. I remember that. Don’t know if there were any interviews. One would think they are affluent . . . to fund the departure from PR to FL. Beyond that, can’t know their preferences. Where did they settle?
Richard Baris told me yesterday he has Trump at -.07 in PA and moving toward him. That AZ holding for Trump. That indies in AZ, particularly Libertarians, are breaking Trump. McSally actually doing better in some parts of the state than Trump (the McTurd bastions).
Concise but detailed summary.
Like that.
The Real American Politics guy (@RealAPolitics) guy is a very frustrated Wisconsinite. He watches county by county the EV pouring in (caveat: inferred voters through TargetSmart). He’s seeing Trump doing very well in rurals (like 2016) but also over-performing in the eastern 3 “WOW” counties where he under-performed in 2016. If he gets more vote in the “WOW” counties, he won’t need as much rural vote to win again.
This analyst is so bullish about winning WI based on what he’s seeing, and is extremely mad about the Biden poll+17 poll that came out. He thinks pollsters are making up numbers now or that they just sampled Madison voters. It’s ludicrous.
Check out his youtube videos. They’re quite short but informative about WI and other swing states.
First of all, many, many thanks for the time and effort that many of you have been contributing to this effort for all of these days. Between starting the threads, the map (it’s amazing), the “on the ground” reports, and the information from other states, it helps getting a sense of what is happening in Florida and some other of these key states.
I do have one question, however. I know it has been said that we still have many more “super voters” in reserve (I’m one of them). What is the method of determining whether a super voter has already voted or not? If this something that one can determine by analyzing the official information provided by the state? Or is this an informed estimate made by parties such as TargetSmart?
Laz, I’ve been posting this for three years. It hasn’t changed.
Trump wins every 2016 state by a bigger margin than 16; will add MN and NH or NV.
Long shot wins: VA, NM and whichever of MN or NH he doesn’t win.
With MN still ripe for picking, there is no way Biden is up big in WI. Heck, I’m not so sure Biden is up big in DE.
I was using the TargetSmart definition at first, but have changed to 4/4, aka, voted in the last 4 of each election. Often that is public information. I will see if I can source updated numbers for FL tonight, but what is currently on the website should be a fairly good estimate.
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